18 August 2011

Greenply (TP: `311/ Upside: 47%):Angel Broking, TOP PICKS

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􀂄 Greenply Industries (GIL) is a leading plywood and laminates brand, supported by
ad spend as high as 4.0% of sales (around 10% of laminates revenue). The company
also has the largest distribution network of over 15,000 dealers in the industry.
􀂄 GIL increased its laminates capacity by 88% in FY2010 and is witnessing strong
demand for its products. The company achieved 98% capacity utilisation in
1QFY2012 and ended FY2011 with 94% capacity utilisation. We expect utilisation
to further improve to 110% in FY2012, which will boost revenue going ahead.
􀂄 GIL forayed into the lucrative, high-growth MDF market in FY2011, with the largest
MDF plant in India (1,80,000m3/year capacity). The MDF opportunity is especially
huge as it constitutes 20% of wood panel consumption in India, while plywood
constitutes 80% – the reverse holds true globally. In 4QFY2011, the segment reported
first-time revenue of around `32cr, which further improved to `46cr in 1QFY2012
due to higher utilisation, which increased to 49.3% for the quarter. We expect the
segment to achieve 45% capacity utilisation by FY2012, which would further bolster
the company’s revenue and improve its margin.
􀂄 Currently, the stock is trading at 5.4x FY2013E earnings, which is at the lower end
of its historical average of 4.3-17.0x one-year forward EPS. We maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with a target price of `311.

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