13 August 2011

Bharat Forge- Strong all round performance:Standard Chartered Research,

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 Bharat Forge’s consolidated earnings grew 60% yoy led
by robust growth across all business segments.
 Overseas revenue was up 38% yoy and earnings rose
54% yoy to Rs111m.
 Standalone revenue was up 36% yoy led by strong
export ramp-up; earnings rose 57% yoy to Rs974m.
 Strong ramp-up in non-auto and an improving trend at
overseas operations are encouraging.  
 Maintain OUTPERFORM with SoTP-based price target
of Rs450.

Consolidated earnings up 60% yoy. Consol revenue grew
37% yoy to Rs15.8bn led by strong growth across its
business segments. Driven by a steady operational
performance both from the standalone entity and from key
subsidiaries, consolidated PBT rose 60% yoy to Rs1.53bn
(we expected Rs1.46bn).
Overseas performance boosts consol net profit.  
Overseas revenue grew 38% yoy to Rs7.1bn led by 47%
yoy growth from its wholly-owned subsidiaries and 15% yoy
growth from FAW Bharat Forge. Overall, overseas operating
margin remained stable at 5.6%. Driven by strong revenue
growth and steady margins, overseas earnings (PBT) grew
54% yoy to Rs111m (81% yoy growth from subsidiaries and
17% yoy growth from Chinese JV).
Strong export ramp-up boosts standalone revenue. Net
sales (standalone) rose 36% yoy to Rs8.6bn (we estimated
Rs7.9bn), driven by better-than-expected export ramp-up.
Overall, operating margin remained stable qoq (down 90bps
yoy) at 24.3% (est. 24.7%). As a result, net profit grew 57%
yoy to Rs974m (est. Rs860m).
Valuation and outlook. Acceleration of the non-auto
business, improved performance from overseas subsidiaries
and steady growth from the core business are likely to lead
to strong earnings growth going forward. Forays into capital
goods (JVs with Alstom, NTPC and the EPC division) are
likely to boost earnings from FY13 onwards. Maintain
OUTPERFORM. Key risk - continued slowdown in US and
Europe.

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