Rainfall Trend above Normal, But... ::Morgan Stanley Research,

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


India Economics
Quick Comment: Rainfall
Trend above Normal, But...
Rainfall trend in India remained above normal
during the week ended June 29: On a weekly basis,
the total country-wide rainfall weighted by cropped area
was 10% above normal for the week ended June 29
compared to 23% above normal for the week ended
June 22. According to IMD, on an all-India
area-weighted basis, cumulative rainfall was 11% above
normal up to June 29, the same as the previous week.
However, spatial distribution remains uneven: On
an unweighted basis, rainfall for the week ended
June 29 was below normal in the southern (-26%),
western (-6%), and eastern (-5%) regions, and above
normal in northern (+74%) region. The states affected
by below-normal rainfall include Gujarat, Maharashtra,
and Andhra Pradesh, amongst others. Considering that
many of the states have less-developed irrigation
facilities, it will be crucial to monitor the progress of
monsoons over the coming weeks and the crop-sowing
pattern.
Cropped area affected by below-normal rainfall at
22.1%: The most important measure of cropped area
affected by below-normal rainfall stood at 22.1% as of
the week ended June 29 compared to 21.1% as of the
week ended June 22.
Some concern on crop outlook emerging: While
rainfall trend so far is above normal, the uneven spatial
distribution has raised some concerns about the
summer (Kharif) crop outlook. We think that we will have
a better picture of the monsoon trend by around mid-July,
as the bulk of the sowing is done in this month. Hence,
we believe that the first clear assessment of likely
agricultural growth for the year can be made only after
mid-July.