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5300 - A crucial support
Sensex (17871) / Nifty (5366)
In our previous Weekly report, we had mentioned that indices
are trading in the range of 17786 / 5328 on the downside and
18673 / 5605 levels on the upside. Any decisive break on either
side would dictate the direction of the trend. The week started
with positive sentiments but selling emerged at higher levels,
which dragged the indices to close near the lower range of the
band.
The Sensex and Nifty ended with loss of 2.18% vis-à-vis the
previous week.
Pattern Formation
On the Daily chart, in view of the current price action we
are observing a possible "Head and Shoulder in making. Any
close below the prior swing low of 17786 / 5328 would confirm
the said pattern.
Future Outlook
Markets for past four weeks are trading in the range of
17786 / 5328 on the downside and 18673 / 5605 levels on
the upside. As mentioned in earlier report, that a decisive break
on either side would dictate the direction of the trend.
At present prices are trading near the lower range of the band.
Any close below the prior swing low of 17786 / 5328 level
would confirm the "Head and Shoulder pattern. In such scenario
indices may test 17470 - 17296 / 5233 - 5178 levels. On the
other hand, if indices hold the swing low of 17786 / 5328 level
then a bounce up to 18039 - 18160 - 18258 / 5414 - 5451 -
5480 could be expected. Traders holding on to their
long positions in Nifty futures should exit, if Indices close below
17700 / 5300 level.
Market may correct further buy it won't be one way
Nifty spot closed at 5366 this week, against a close of 5585 last week. The Put-Call Ratio is 1.09 against 1.23 last week and the
annualized Cost of Carry is positive 7.17%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 5.28%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Historical Volatility Analysis
The PCR-OI decreased from 1.23 to 1.09 points. Over the week,
huge build up was observed from 5400 to 5600 call options
and considerable unwinding was observed from 5400 to 5600
put options. However, the build up, which took place from 5100
to 5300 put options are blend of buying and selling. Over all,
the data suggests further weakness in the market. The selling
pace of FIIs in cash segment has also increased.
The Historical Volatility of Nifty futures has decreased from
17.91% to 17.32%. Implied volatility of at-the-money options
has increased from 16.00% to 18.00%. Over the week, few
liquid counters where HV has increased significantly are MAX,
WIPRO, PFC, CENTURYTEX and ADANIENT. Stocks where HV
has decreased significantly are DCHL, BANKBARODA, NCC,
HEROHONDA and TTML.
Nifty June Futures closed at a premium of 13.70 points against
a discount of 1.65 points last week. The July future closed at a
premium of 28.40 points. Few liquid stocks where CoC turned
from negative to positive are SREINFRA, GAIL, GRASIM, CANBK
and TATAPOWER. Stocks where CoC turned from positive to
negative are INDIANB, HEROHONDA, KSOILS, JINDALSAW
and RELINFRA. Few stocks which are trading at a discount due
to dividend are BAJAJ-AUTO, BANKBARODA, HDFC, SESAGOA
and DRREDDY.
Total open interest of market increased from `127,063cr to
`138,292cr. Stock futures open interest has increased from
`33,140cr to `34,835cr. Few liquid stocks where open interest
has increased significantly are IDFC, ESCORTS, BATAINDIA,
HINDALCO and RELIANCE. Stocks where open interest has
decreased significantly are TV-.18, DENABANK, PETRONET,
RELINFRA and DIVISLAB.
Open Interest Analysis
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
5300 - A crucial support
Sensex (17871) / Nifty (5366)
In our previous Weekly report, we had mentioned that indices
are trading in the range of 17786 / 5328 on the downside and
18673 / 5605 levels on the upside. Any decisive break on either
side would dictate the direction of the trend. The week started
with positive sentiments but selling emerged at higher levels,
which dragged the indices to close near the lower range of the
band.
The Sensex and Nifty ended with loss of 2.18% vis-à-vis the
previous week.
Pattern Formation
On the Daily chart, in view of the current price action we
are observing a possible "Head and Shoulder in making. Any
close below the prior swing low of 17786 / 5328 would confirm
the said pattern.
Future Outlook
Markets for past four weeks are trading in the range of
17786 / 5328 on the downside and 18673 / 5605 levels on
the upside. As mentioned in earlier report, that a decisive break
on either side would dictate the direction of the trend.
At present prices are trading near the lower range of the band.
Any close below the prior swing low of 17786 / 5328 level
would confirm the "Head and Shoulder pattern. In such scenario
indices may test 17470 - 17296 / 5233 - 5178 levels. On the
other hand, if indices hold the swing low of 17786 / 5328 level
then a bounce up to 18039 - 18160 - 18258 / 5414 - 5451 -
5480 could be expected. Traders holding on to their
long positions in Nifty futures should exit, if Indices close below
17700 / 5300 level.
Market may correct further buy it won't be one way
Nifty spot closed at 5366 this week, against a close of 5585 last week. The Put-Call Ratio is 1.09 against 1.23 last week and the
annualized Cost of Carry is positive 7.17%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 5.28%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Historical Volatility Analysis
The PCR-OI decreased from 1.23 to 1.09 points. Over the week,
huge build up was observed from 5400 to 5600 call options
and considerable unwinding was observed from 5400 to 5600
put options. However, the build up, which took place from 5100
to 5300 put options are blend of buying and selling. Over all,
the data suggests further weakness in the market. The selling
pace of FIIs in cash segment has also increased.
The Historical Volatility of Nifty futures has decreased from
17.91% to 17.32%. Implied volatility of at-the-money options
has increased from 16.00% to 18.00%. Over the week, few
liquid counters where HV has increased significantly are MAX,
WIPRO, PFC, CENTURYTEX and ADANIENT. Stocks where HV
has decreased significantly are DCHL, BANKBARODA, NCC,
HEROHONDA and TTML.
Nifty June Futures closed at a premium of 13.70 points against
a discount of 1.65 points last week. The July future closed at a
premium of 28.40 points. Few liquid stocks where CoC turned
from negative to positive are SREINFRA, GAIL, GRASIM, CANBK
and TATAPOWER. Stocks where CoC turned from positive to
negative are INDIANB, HEROHONDA, KSOILS, JINDALSAW
and RELINFRA. Few stocks which are trading at a discount due
to dividend are BAJAJ-AUTO, BANKBARODA, HDFC, SESAGOA
and DRREDDY.
Total open interest of market increased from `127,063cr to
`138,292cr. Stock futures open interest has increased from
`33,140cr to `34,835cr. Few liquid stocks where open interest
has increased significantly are IDFC, ESCORTS, BATAINDIA,
HINDALCO and RELIANCE. Stocks where open interest has
decreased significantly are TV-.18, DENABANK, PETRONET,
RELINFRA and DIVISLAB.
Open Interest Analysis
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