16 June 2011

Macquarie Research, Energy markets continue downward trend

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Energy markets continue downward
trend
Energy Market Indices WoW Changes
⇒ S&P/TSX Energy Index: -3.9%
⇒ S&P 500 E&P Index: -3.4%
⇒ Oil Service Sector Index: -4.0%
⇒ UK FTSE Oil & Gas Producers Index: -1.1%
⇒ Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Producers Index: -0.8%
Weekly Market Recap
Crude prices continued to keep a flat quote WoW in the face of bullish price
pressures. Such pressure came partly from the OPEC meeting on Wednesday;
OPEC members were not able to reach a consensus on the need to raise oil
production. Crude prices rallied on this news, due to the looming shortfall between
forecasted world oil demand and supply of over 1mmbbl. Bullish pressure also came
on Wednesday, as the DOE storage report showed a large draw of 4.8mmbl (vs. an
expected draw of 1.4mmbbl).
Nat gas: Prices continued to climb WoW, spending much of the week at or above the
ten-month highs seen last week. The EIA storage report showed a slightly higherthan-
expected build of 80bcf (vs. 78bcf consensus); however, overall storage is
2.19tcf, which is 11% lower than the same week last year. Expectations for a hotterthan-
expected week ahead through much of the US Midwest are also helping to
keep prices high.
ExxonMobil announced this week that it has bought two private companies, Philips
Resources and TWP Inc, for US$1.69bn. The acquisitions gave ExxonMobil 317,000
acres for exploration in the Marcellus shale play. The two companies had proved
reserves of 228bcfe.
The principal drilling news in the European E&P space was Tullow Oil's subcommercial
exploration results at the offshore Ghana Banda-1 well, as well as
successful E&A results in Uganda (Jobi East-1 and Mpyo-3). Other exploration news
included Max Petroleum making a small discovery at the Narmundanak South postsalt
prospect in Kazakhstan. In order to help with tracking drilling timings, we
published a schedule of the E&A drilling catalysts that we expect to report over the
coming summer. On the Integrated side, Statoil and Total announced plans to divest
their stakes in the Gassled JV (Statoil 24%, Total 6%) and the Ekofisk South and
Eldfisk II projects in the Norwegian North Sea were formally approved (Total, Eni,
Statoil). The IOCs also reported positive exploration results; OMV reported a
discovery at the Bina Bawi block in Kurdistan (as well as completing a €1.5b debt
and equity refinancing program,) and ENI reported a major oil discovery at Hadrian
North in the deepwater GOM. The decision by Shell to approve the development of
its 140mmboe Cardamom field in the deepwater GoM further implies that activity in
the region is starting to rebound.

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