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Weekly US oil data
Mixed messages
Suddenly soggy demand data look unusually strange
Especially now that violent market volatility obscures what is happening to the
underlying fundamentals, it would have been lovely to get more of a sense of
direction from the US weekly data. It‟s too bad then that these numbers are even
more puzzling than normal.
Let's start with what's clear: On the crude oil front this morning's data are
constructive from a global perspective. Imports of crude oil into the US remain
extremely low (12% below normal, and on par with March levels). Currently 4wk MA
imports of 5.2mb/d into the Gulf Coast are more than 800kb/d short of their 5yr norm,
and they're 11% lower than last year. Evidently, producers are not 'pushing' oil onto
US customers. Indeed these data jive with our assessment that global crude oil
balances will be in deficit in 2Q and 3Q of this year. Correspondingly, inventories of
crude oil should fall and Brent futures curve structures should strengthen.
What's hopelessly unclear is the US demand data. If we're to believe the US EIA
then oil demand here just softened materially. On a 4wk MA, and comparing y/y, we
are suddenly more than 500kb/d in the red (down 3%). The entire change from near
flat is composed of a 300kb/d swing in diesel demand (from middling growth to
pronounced decline) and a 200kb/d acceleration in the y/y declines for 'other
products' -- which is a new shift. Either the EIA is wrong, or the US economy just
weakened something awful without anyone else noticing.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories were unchanged – The build was concentrated in the
East and West Coast regions. Levels at Cushing, OK fell -1.6mbs.
Downstream stocks turn modestly lower, -0.1mbs, as a -1.2mbs draw in
middle distillates helps soften the effect of a +2.9mbs build in other products.
Demand growth turns negaive at -2.9% (four week MA, y/y).
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Mixed messages
Suddenly soggy demand data look unusually strange
Especially now that violent market volatility obscures what is happening to the
underlying fundamentals, it would have been lovely to get more of a sense of
direction from the US weekly data. It‟s too bad then that these numbers are even
more puzzling than normal.
Let's start with what's clear: On the crude oil front this morning's data are
constructive from a global perspective. Imports of crude oil into the US remain
extremely low (12% below normal, and on par with March levels). Currently 4wk MA
imports of 5.2mb/d into the Gulf Coast are more than 800kb/d short of their 5yr norm,
and they're 11% lower than last year. Evidently, producers are not 'pushing' oil onto
US customers. Indeed these data jive with our assessment that global crude oil
balances will be in deficit in 2Q and 3Q of this year. Correspondingly, inventories of
crude oil should fall and Brent futures curve structures should strengthen.
What's hopelessly unclear is the US demand data. If we're to believe the US EIA
then oil demand here just softened materially. On a 4wk MA, and comparing y/y, we
are suddenly more than 500kb/d in the red (down 3%). The entire change from near
flat is composed of a 300kb/d swing in diesel demand (from middling growth to
pronounced decline) and a 200kb/d acceleration in the y/y declines for 'other
products' -- which is a new shift. Either the EIA is wrong, or the US economy just
weakened something awful without anyone else noticing.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories were unchanged – The build was concentrated in the
East and West Coast regions. Levels at Cushing, OK fell -1.6mbs.
Downstream stocks turn modestly lower, -0.1mbs, as a -1.2mbs draw in
middle distillates helps soften the effect of a +2.9mbs build in other products.
Demand growth turns negaive at -2.9% (four week MA, y/y).
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