24 May 2011

JPMorgan : Siemens- Delivers on growth promise: Reiterate OW

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Siemens India
Overweight
SIEM.BO, SIEM IN
Delivers on growth promise: Reiterate OW


• Strong Mar-q results. Siemens India posted sales growth of 40% YoY,
well ahead of our estimate of 21-25% growth. Results beat expectations set
post disclosures by Siemens AG for Mar-q . Order inflow of
Rs33bn (up 47% YoY) was healthy. OPM was up 100bps to 14.3%; higher
RM costs were more than compensated by lower SG&A expenses. PAT of
Rs2.8bn (up 53% YoY) was ~14% ahead of estimate.
• Segmental update. Energy segment sales grew a very strong 73% YoY in
Mar-q to Rs17.5bn. The performance indicates that execution of large cycle
orders from Qatar and Torrent Group constituting ~25% of order backlog
(~Rs154bn) is progressing well. Industry segment sales grew just 4.4% (to
Rs13.3bn) mainly on account of weak revenue booked in mobility and
industry solutions. Given healthy inflows and positive outlook on industry
segment growth by ABB and CG we expect a recovery in coming quarters.
Healthcare segment sales were up 53% to Rs2.6bn and included
contribution of Rs552mn from SHDL which has been amalgamated in the
standalone company.
• We have raised FY11, 12 estimates by ~5%: After 1H topline growth of
38% YoY, 2H asking rate of 19% appears achievable (with room to do even
better). We expect 2H margins of 13.3% (+120bps YoY), ~100bps below
1H level, to build in buffer for RM cost pressures. Strong quarterly results
are expected to continue – implied 2H PAT growth is 31% YoY.
• Siemens delivers on growth promise, we reiterate OW: As a result of our
estimate changes our DCF-based Mar-12 PT is raised to Rs950 (vs. Rs870
earlier), implying ~23.8x FY13E (fiscalized) EPS. The ~40%+ valuation
discount to ABB (UW) makes us more positive on Siemens on a relative
basis. The factors behind our Jan-end upgrade (see note) of Siemens to OW
remain: comfort on earnings' visibility, recent healthy execution + margin
track record, easing of past concerns related to inter-group M&A, and order
inflow momentum expected to continue. Key downside risks: Weak inflows,
RM led pricing pressure.

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