08 May 2011

India Equity Strategy : Tracking Institutional Ownership:: JPMorgan

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• Special focus – Quarterly changes in institutional ownership. Latest data
released for the March quarter indicates that despite marginal selling,
aggregate holdings of FIIs in Indian equities continues to be around
historically high levels of 15%. DIIs, led by insurance companies turned
buyers over the quarter taking their aggregate ownership of Indian equities up
by 70 bps to 9.0%.

• Allocations for global sectors continued over 1Q… Over the last quarter,
both FIIs and DIIs increased allocation to global sectors Energy and
Materials, and reduced their allocation to local sectors, particuarly Industrials.
The switch could be attributed to concerns over high inflation in the Indian
economy and the firm trend in global commodity prices.
• …though preferences could be changing. Our money flow monitor for
April suggests a marginal switch in portfolio allocation though. Industrials
and Materials saw inflows while Energy and Autos had outflows. Flows into
Financials were mixed.
• Portfolio positioning. FIIs continue to remain overweight Financials and
Consumer Discretionary sectors but have reduced ownership in both sectors
over the quarter. They are underweight Energy, IT services and Utilities. DIIs
are currently overweight Consumer staples & Utilties and underweight IT
services, Financials and Consumer Discretionary.
• J.P. Morgan portfolio stance. We have been recommending a) an overweight
stance on global sectors for the early part of the year and b) buying into the
weakness in Financials (ex the state owned banks) and Industrials for a
recovery into the second half. We are underweight Consumption, particularly
Discretionary spending, Utilities and Cement.
• RBI Credit Policy review. The central bank acknowledged that containing
surging inflation was the key priority. Benchmark rates were raised by 50 bps
(vs. market expectations of a 25 bps). Saving bank interest rates were also
hiked by 50 bps. The Yield curve moved north as a result. Liquidity within the
interbank system however remains comfortable as indicated by the amount
under daily LAF and the overnight interbank rate

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