Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Oil and Gas
Oil prices increase 21.3% QoQ due to unrest in MENA region
The geo-political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa
(MENA) region led to 38.3% YoY and 21.3% QoQ increase in
average Brent crude oil prices to US$105.4 per bbl in Q4FY11
(historically third highest quarterly average). Continued tensions in
Libya, Yemen and Syria kept crude oil prices at higher levels. This
would increase the realisations and profitability of the exploration
and production (E&P) companies. Cairn India, ONGC, OIL India and
RIL would be the key beneficiaries.
Gross under-recoveries for FY11 at ~| 77,800 crore
Higher crude oil prices would increase gross crude oil underrecoveries
from | 46,100 crore in FY10 to |77,800 crore in FY11E.
The gross under-recoveries are estimated at | 30,800 crore in
Q4FY11 against | 15,600 crore in Q4FY10. We have modelled
government’s share at 50% in FY11E against 56.5% in FY10. This
would bring down the profitability of oil marketing companies
(HPCL, BPCL and IOC) YoY.
Gross refining margin to increase QoQ
Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) have increased QoQ from
$5.5 per barrel in Q3FY11 to $7.4 per barrel in Q4FY11 mainly on
account of higher spread on middle distillates in Asia. Also, the
shutdown of some refineries in Japan led to higher GRMs for March
2011. This would benefit refiners like RIL, Essar Oil, CPCL and MRPL.
Stable growth in gas volumes and increase in net realisations YoY
A majority of gas transportation companies would report a steady
increase in volumes YoY. Higher demand from the industrial and
CNG segment would contribute mainly to the increase in gas
volumes. LNG volumes would increase substantially YoY due to
increased demand and lower domestic gas supply from RIL in the
current quarter.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Bharat
Petroleum
We expect a 10.3% YoY increase in revenues due to 1% increase in retail sales
volumes to 7.3 million tonnes (MT) and higher product prices. Profitability is
expected to decline YoY as we have modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at
16.7% in FY11E against 12.2% in FY10
Cairn India
Ltd
Revenues are expected to increase 393.4% YoY due to the ramp up of oil production
from the Mangala field and higher crude oil prices. The net oil & gas production is
expected to increase 279.2% YoY to 99,566 boepd while oil realisation is expected
to increase by 26.7% YoY to $90.1 per barrel
Gujarat Gas Volumes are expected to increase 13.6% YoY to 3.7 mmscmd on account of an
increase in LNG volumes. Realisations would improve 18% YoY to 16.5 per scm to
pass on higher gas costs to the customers. Margins would decline YoY by 540 bps
to 19.6% in Q1CY11E on account of higher procurement of LNG
GSPL Revenues are expected to increase YoY on account of 4.9% YoY increase in gas
sales volume to 38.2 mmscmd in Q4FY11 and also increase in transmission charges
from | 0.79 per scm to | 0.82 per scm YoY. A change in the depreciation policy
would mainly contribute to the profit growth in the current quarter
Hindustan
Petroleum
We expect a 23.7% YoY increased in revenues due to 7% increase in retail sales
volumes to 7 MT and higher product prices. Profitability is expected to decline YoY
as we have modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at 16.7% in FY11E against
12.2% in FY10
Indian Oil
Corporation
We expect a 16.6% YoY increased in revenues due to 1% increase in retail sales
volumes to 16.8 MT and higher product prices. Profitability is expected to decline
YoY as we have modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at 16.7% in FY11E against
12.2% in FY10
Indraprastha
Gas
Revenues would increase 73.4% YoY on account of a 27.5% increase in sales
volume to 2.87 mmscmd and 36.2% increase in gross realisation to | 20.8 per scm.
However, margins are expected to decline due to an increase in gas purchase prices
Oil India Revenues are expected to increase YoY mainly on account of higher crude oil
production and higher net oil & gas realisations. We expect oil production of 6.79
mmboe (7.2% YoY increase), subsidy of $36 per barrel and net realisation of $68.4
per barrel in Q4FY11E against $53.3 per barrel in Q4FY10
Petronet LNG We expect robust revenue growth YoY due to higher volumes as well as
realisations. We expect volumes to increase 31.8% YoY to 121 trillion British thermal
unit (2.4 million tonnes) in Q4FY11. PAT is expected to increase substantially on
account of higher regasification margins to | 32.1 per mmbtu
Shiv Vani Oil We expect revenues to increase 20.7% YoY on account of traction in execution of
the order book of ~| 3,000 crore. The EBITDA margin is expected to remain flat QoQ
at 45.6% in Q4FY11
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Oil and Gas
Oil prices increase 21.3% QoQ due to unrest in MENA region
The geo-political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa
(MENA) region led to 38.3% YoY and 21.3% QoQ increase in
average Brent crude oil prices to US$105.4 per bbl in Q4FY11
(historically third highest quarterly average). Continued tensions in
Libya, Yemen and Syria kept crude oil prices at higher levels. This
would increase the realisations and profitability of the exploration
and production (E&P) companies. Cairn India, ONGC, OIL India and
RIL would be the key beneficiaries.
Gross under-recoveries for FY11 at ~| 77,800 crore
Higher crude oil prices would increase gross crude oil underrecoveries
from | 46,100 crore in FY10 to |77,800 crore in FY11E.
The gross under-recoveries are estimated at | 30,800 crore in
Q4FY11 against | 15,600 crore in Q4FY10. We have modelled
government’s share at 50% in FY11E against 56.5% in FY10. This
would bring down the profitability of oil marketing companies
(HPCL, BPCL and IOC) YoY.
Gross refining margin to increase QoQ
Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) have increased QoQ from
$5.5 per barrel in Q3FY11 to $7.4 per barrel in Q4FY11 mainly on
account of higher spread on middle distillates in Asia. Also, the
shutdown of some refineries in Japan led to higher GRMs for March
2011. This would benefit refiners like RIL, Essar Oil, CPCL and MRPL.
Stable growth in gas volumes and increase in net realisations YoY
A majority of gas transportation companies would report a steady
increase in volumes YoY. Higher demand from the industrial and
CNG segment would contribute mainly to the increase in gas
volumes. LNG volumes would increase substantially YoY due to
increased demand and lower domestic gas supply from RIL in the
current quarter.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Bharat
Petroleum
We expect a 10.3% YoY increase in revenues due to 1% increase in retail sales
volumes to 7.3 million tonnes (MT) and higher product prices. Profitability is
expected to decline YoY as we have modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at
16.7% in FY11E against 12.2% in FY10
Cairn India
Ltd
Revenues are expected to increase 393.4% YoY due to the ramp up of oil production
from the Mangala field and higher crude oil prices. The net oil & gas production is
expected to increase 279.2% YoY to 99,566 boepd while oil realisation is expected
to increase by 26.7% YoY to $90.1 per barrel
Gujarat Gas Volumes are expected to increase 13.6% YoY to 3.7 mmscmd on account of an
increase in LNG volumes. Realisations would improve 18% YoY to 16.5 per scm to
pass on higher gas costs to the customers. Margins would decline YoY by 540 bps
to 19.6% in Q1CY11E on account of higher procurement of LNG
GSPL Revenues are expected to increase YoY on account of 4.9% YoY increase in gas
sales volume to 38.2 mmscmd in Q4FY11 and also increase in transmission charges
from | 0.79 per scm to | 0.82 per scm YoY. A change in the depreciation policy
would mainly contribute to the profit growth in the current quarter
Hindustan
Petroleum
We expect a 23.7% YoY increased in revenues due to 7% increase in retail sales
volumes to 7 MT and higher product prices. Profitability is expected to decline YoY
as we have modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at 16.7% in FY11E against
12.2% in FY10
Indian Oil
Corporation
We expect a 16.6% YoY increased in revenues due to 1% increase in retail sales
volumes to 16.8 MT and higher product prices. Profitability is expected to decline
YoY as we have modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at 16.7% in FY11E against
12.2% in FY10
Indraprastha
Gas
Revenues would increase 73.4% YoY on account of a 27.5% increase in sales
volume to 2.87 mmscmd and 36.2% increase in gross realisation to | 20.8 per scm.
However, margins are expected to decline due to an increase in gas purchase prices
Oil India Revenues are expected to increase YoY mainly on account of higher crude oil
production and higher net oil & gas realisations. We expect oil production of 6.79
mmboe (7.2% YoY increase), subsidy of $36 per barrel and net realisation of $68.4
per barrel in Q4FY11E against $53.3 per barrel in Q4FY10
Petronet LNG We expect robust revenue growth YoY due to higher volumes as well as
realisations. We expect volumes to increase 31.8% YoY to 121 trillion British thermal
unit (2.4 million tonnes) in Q4FY11. PAT is expected to increase substantially on
account of higher regasification margins to | 32.1 per mmbtu
Shiv Vani Oil We expect revenues to increase 20.7% YoY on account of traction in execution of
the order book of ~| 3,000 crore. The EBITDA margin is expected to remain flat QoQ
at 45.6% in Q4FY11
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
No comments:
Post a Comment