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Media
Sequentially lower ad revenue growth after a festive backed quarter
Media companies would witness a relatively weak quarter as
sequential advertisement revenue growth takes a dip after a festive
backed robust quarter while input cost continue to be on the rise.
Our media universe would grow 19.4% YoY while it would report
de-growth of 10.6% QoQ. The quarter is expected to be muted
sequentially due to festive led high ad revenue growth and booking
of revenue from the movie Enthiran in the last quarter. Also,
multiplexes would post a QoQ decline since the box office releases
were overshadowed by the ICC World Cup tournament.
Broadcasters would also face the heat in terms of slow ad revenue
growth as advertisement budgets got diverted to the World Cup. We
have factored in a 12.8% YoY ad revenue growth for Sun TV.
Occupancy, footfalls decline owing to ICC World Cup
This would be a bad quarter for multiplexes as almost half of the
quarter was marked by the ICC World Cup tournament. Big starrers
like Patiala House, Dil Toh Bachha Hai Ji and Saat Khoon Maaf failed
to pull in audiences. We expect average occupancy to dip
considerably by 6-7 percentage points across multiplexes leading to
losses at the net level. ATP is also expected to decline 5-7%.
Strong quarter for Dish TV
We expect Dish TV to continue its strong subscriber addition on the
back of higher demand during the ICC World Cup. After a bumper
quarter buoyed by the festive season, Dish TV is expected to add
0.9 million subscribers in Q4FY11E to end FY11 with 10.4 million
subscribers. We expect the ARPU to increase marginally by 1% QoQ
to | 143.
Profitability to take a beating
Margins across player would take a beating as revenue growth lags
rising input costs. Only Dish TV (strong subscriber addition) and
UTV Software (revenue from No One Killed Jessica) in our coverage
universe would post expansion in EBITDA margins. Margins for
Hindi print companies would decline on the back of firming
newsprint prices while multiplexes were plagued by lack of quality
content leading to very low occupancy. Our universe coverage
EBITDA margin is expected to contract 494 bps QoQ to 32.8%.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Cinemax The company rolled out a new property in Raipur with five new screens and seating
capacity of 1055. Due to the ICC World Cup, the industry did not see any good
release in the later half of the quarter. We expect occupancy to dip to ~20% while
ATP would fall to | 124 from ~ | 134 in last quarter
DB Corp We expect 29.6% YoY ad revenue growth on the back of new launches in the
Jharkhand region. However, margins would contract QoQ as the last quarter had a
festive season and higher newsprint prices due to increased circulation
Deccan
Chronicle
After two straight quarters of ad revenue decline we have built in a moderate 2%
YoY decline in ad revenue for Deccan Chronicle due to the ongoing Telangana issue.
This coupled with firming up newsprint prices would put downward pressure on
margins. Our valuation for it does not include the contribution from the sporting
venture
Dish TV We expect the company to add 0.9 million subscribers in this quarter backed by the
ICC World Cup taking the total subscriber base to over 10 million. We expect ARPU
to improve marginally to | 143
ENIL We expect a QoQ decline in ad rates after a festival backed quarter. Top 10 stations
would have inventory utilisation of about 80% while that in the remaining 22 would
increase to 60%. Realisation per slot is expected to fall to | 277 per slot from | 313
in the last quarter
HT Media We expect English ad revenues to grow 10% YoY and Hindi ad revenues to grow
18% YoY. Revenues from the radio segment are expected at | 14.7 crore. EBITDA
margins would contract due to relatively lower ad revenue growth QoQ and
increasing competition from Dainik Bhaskar in Jharkhand
Jagran
Prakashan
With price hikes partially absorbed and increase in ad volumes, advertisement
revenue is expected to grow at 23.7% YoY. EBITDA margins are expected to decline
QoQ on the back of lower ad yield and firming newsprint prices
PVR PVR did not roll out any new properties in this quarter as well. The company rolled
out its last property in September 2010. Big starrers like Patiala House and Dil Toh
Bachha Hai Ji failed to perform at the box office while the second half of the quarter
was dull due to the ICC Cricket World Cup. We expect occupancy to dip to 23% from
32% in Q3FY11 while ATP would fall to | 165
Sun TV Sun TV would post 16.1% YoY revenue growth on the back of ad revenue growth of
12.8%, subscription revenue growth of 15.7% and booking of revenue from the
movie segment. We expect the company to add 0.27 million viewers in its DTH
segment in Q4FY11E
UTV Software UTV would realise revenues from Tees Maar Khan released towards the fag end of
Q3FY11 while the company released No one Killed Jessica and Saat Khoon Maaf in
this quarter. Both movies had a decent performance at the box office
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Media
Sequentially lower ad revenue growth after a festive backed quarter
Media companies would witness a relatively weak quarter as
sequential advertisement revenue growth takes a dip after a festive
backed robust quarter while input cost continue to be on the rise.
Our media universe would grow 19.4% YoY while it would report
de-growth of 10.6% QoQ. The quarter is expected to be muted
sequentially due to festive led high ad revenue growth and booking
of revenue from the movie Enthiran in the last quarter. Also,
multiplexes would post a QoQ decline since the box office releases
were overshadowed by the ICC World Cup tournament.
Broadcasters would also face the heat in terms of slow ad revenue
growth as advertisement budgets got diverted to the World Cup. We
have factored in a 12.8% YoY ad revenue growth for Sun TV.
Occupancy, footfalls decline owing to ICC World Cup
This would be a bad quarter for multiplexes as almost half of the
quarter was marked by the ICC World Cup tournament. Big starrers
like Patiala House, Dil Toh Bachha Hai Ji and Saat Khoon Maaf failed
to pull in audiences. We expect average occupancy to dip
considerably by 6-7 percentage points across multiplexes leading to
losses at the net level. ATP is also expected to decline 5-7%.
Strong quarter for Dish TV
We expect Dish TV to continue its strong subscriber addition on the
back of higher demand during the ICC World Cup. After a bumper
quarter buoyed by the festive season, Dish TV is expected to add
0.9 million subscribers in Q4FY11E to end FY11 with 10.4 million
subscribers. We expect the ARPU to increase marginally by 1% QoQ
to | 143.
Profitability to take a beating
Margins across player would take a beating as revenue growth lags
rising input costs. Only Dish TV (strong subscriber addition) and
UTV Software (revenue from No One Killed Jessica) in our coverage
universe would post expansion in EBITDA margins. Margins for
Hindi print companies would decline on the back of firming
newsprint prices while multiplexes were plagued by lack of quality
content leading to very low occupancy. Our universe coverage
EBITDA margin is expected to contract 494 bps QoQ to 32.8%.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Cinemax The company rolled out a new property in Raipur with five new screens and seating
capacity of 1055. Due to the ICC World Cup, the industry did not see any good
release in the later half of the quarter. We expect occupancy to dip to ~20% while
ATP would fall to | 124 from ~ | 134 in last quarter
DB Corp We expect 29.6% YoY ad revenue growth on the back of new launches in the
Jharkhand region. However, margins would contract QoQ as the last quarter had a
festive season and higher newsprint prices due to increased circulation
Deccan
Chronicle
After two straight quarters of ad revenue decline we have built in a moderate 2%
YoY decline in ad revenue for Deccan Chronicle due to the ongoing Telangana issue.
This coupled with firming up newsprint prices would put downward pressure on
margins. Our valuation for it does not include the contribution from the sporting
venture
Dish TV We expect the company to add 0.9 million subscribers in this quarter backed by the
ICC World Cup taking the total subscriber base to over 10 million. We expect ARPU
to improve marginally to | 143
ENIL We expect a QoQ decline in ad rates after a festival backed quarter. Top 10 stations
would have inventory utilisation of about 80% while that in the remaining 22 would
increase to 60%. Realisation per slot is expected to fall to | 277 per slot from | 313
in the last quarter
HT Media We expect English ad revenues to grow 10% YoY and Hindi ad revenues to grow
18% YoY. Revenues from the radio segment are expected at | 14.7 crore. EBITDA
margins would contract due to relatively lower ad revenue growth QoQ and
increasing competition from Dainik Bhaskar in Jharkhand
Jagran
Prakashan
With price hikes partially absorbed and increase in ad volumes, advertisement
revenue is expected to grow at 23.7% YoY. EBITDA margins are expected to decline
QoQ on the back of lower ad yield and firming newsprint prices
PVR PVR did not roll out any new properties in this quarter as well. The company rolled
out its last property in September 2010. Big starrers like Patiala House and Dil Toh
Bachha Hai Ji failed to perform at the box office while the second half of the quarter
was dull due to the ICC Cricket World Cup. We expect occupancy to dip to 23% from
32% in Q3FY11 while ATP would fall to | 165
Sun TV Sun TV would post 16.1% YoY revenue growth on the back of ad revenue growth of
12.8%, subscription revenue growth of 15.7% and booking of revenue from the
movie segment. We expect the company to add 0.27 million viewers in its DTH
segment in Q4FY11E
UTV Software UTV would realise revenues from Tees Maar Khan released towards the fag end of
Q3FY11 while the company released No one Killed Jessica and Saat Khoon Maaf in
this quarter. Both movies had a decent performance at the box office
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
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