22 April 2011

Hold Container Corporation; Impacted by de-growth in domestic volumes…Target : | 1250, ICICI Securities,

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Container Corporation

Impacted by de-growth in domestic volumes…
Container Corporation’s (Concor) Q4FY11 numbers were below our
estimates on the back of a sharp drop in domestic volumes. In the
current quarter, domestic volumes declined by 8.5% YoY. The fall in
domestic volumes was primarily on the back of a sharp increase in
haulage charges on specified commodities. The company recorded net
sales of | 995.38 crore, growth of 4.7% YoY and 2.5% QoQ in Q4FY11.
The EBITDA margin for Q4FY11 declined 550 bps QoQ to 23.4%
primarily on account of volume discount given to clients. Net profit
increased by 16.2% YoY to | 201.40 crore.

Highlights for the quarter
􀂃 Exim route volumes increased 5.6% YoY to 5,18,174 TEUs in
Q4FY11. Realisations in the Exim route increased by 1.9% YoY to |
15,076.2 per TEU. The revenue from the Exim segment increased by
7.7% YoY to | 781.20 crore
􀂃 Domestic route volumes declined 8.5% YoY to 1,39,430 TEUs in
Q4FY11. Realisations in the domestic route increased by 4.1% YoY
to | 15,360.5 per TEU. Revenues from the domestic segment
decreased by 4.8% YoY to | 214.17 crore
Valuation
The decline in domestic segment volumes coupled with the volume
discounts to clients impacted the performance of the company during
Q4FY11. Going forward, we expect the Exim segment to be a significant
contributor to the overall volume growth. The domestic volume would be
muted due to commodity specific rate hikes. For FY13, we expect Exim
container volumes of ~ 2.42 million TEUs and domestic container
volumes of ~ 0.54 million TEUs. We have a HOLD rating on the stock with
a target price of | 1250. Our target price discounts FY12E and FY13E EPS
by 18.1x and 17.0x, respectively.

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