20 April 2011

Fund Flow - Off-peak but still positive inflows ::Macquarie Research,

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Weekly Fund Flow Tracker
Off-peak but still positive inflows
Local exchange data: net buying moderates from multiweek
high
 Asia ex-Japan net buying continues, driven primarily by Taiwan. For the
week ending Wed, April 13, each of the six Asia ex-Japan markets where high
frequency data is available (ie, Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Indonesia and
the Philippines) continued to record positive, albeit more moderate, WoW net
buying. In aggregate, the region recorded net buying of US$1.1bn compared to
US$5.7bn the previous week, and still above the 52-week average of US$925m.
 The moderation was particularly apparent in Korea and India (US$29m and
US$60m, respectively, following massive US$2.2bn and US$1.4bn net buys
the week before). By contrast, despite lingering post-Japan earthquake supply
chain concerns, net buying of Taiwan stocks held up at US$803m after
US$907m the week before. The TIPs together recorded net buying of
US$185m (after excluding transactions related to Vallar’s acquisition of Berau
Coal in Indonesia), lower than last week’s US$1.1bn but still above the 52-
week average of US$139m.

 Stronger foreign net buying in Japan. Japanese net buying data comes
with an extra week delay, but for the week ending April 8, foreign net buying in
Japan increased WoW to US$4.3bn vs. US$2.4bn the week before – marking
the 23rd week of consecutive foreign net buying.
 Frontier market buying momentum slows. Foreign net buying in Vietnam
moderated to US$7.5m (vs. US$16.4m the previous week), while both
Pakistan and Sri Lanka recorded net selling of -US$1.6m and -US$0.5m,
respectively, after net buying of US$10m and US$33m the week before.
Fund subscription data: GEM buyback continues
 Emerging Asia: WoW subscriptions moderate. The various Asia ex-Japan
equity funds continued receiving positive weekly net subscriptions in
aggregate – albeit at just US$83m vs. US$813m last week. One key driver
was a rebound in subscriptions to Taiwan-focused funds to US$58m after
redemptions of -US$20m last week. Subscriptions to Korea-dedicated funds
stayed strong at US$180m – a fourth straight week of net inflows – albeit
down from US$310m the week before. Indonesia-, Hong Kong-, and
Malaysia-focused funds also recorded WoW pickups in net subscriptions.
 On the other hand, pan-regional Asia ex-Japan funds, as well as Greater
China-, China-, and India-dedicated funds, all fell into net redemption territory.
Singapore funds continued to receive net redemptions, albeit easing to just
-US$1.0m from -US$20.6m a week ago.
 GEM fund subscriptions help up. Weekly net subscriptions to Global
Emerging Market funds “moderated” to (a still-high) US$1.6bn following last
week’s record US$3.9bn. This is nearly double the 52-week average of
US$842m – pointing to sustained appetite for the emerging equity asset class.
 Developed Asia: rising net redemptions from Japan funds. Japanfocused
funds received net redemptions for the third consecutive week at -
US$294m, a reversal vs. the YTD average weekly net subscription of
US$195m. Meanwhile, net subscriptions at Asia-Pacific Funds (which
combine Australia and New Zealand with Japan and emerging Asia) slowed to
US$54m from US$160m the week before.

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