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APAT at Rs4.07bn (+-9.8% yoy) sharply above est (Rs3.3 bn),
driven by lower RM & energy cost. Revenue +11%yoy - by
realizations at Rs3913/t jump 3.6% yoy +9.2%qoq
¾ Sharp jump in realisations drive 95% qoq (-1.8% yoy) growth
in EBITDA (Rs 6.1bn v/s est of Rs5.3 bn) – EBITDA/t at Rs1084,
up 72% qoq. 4.5% qoq decline in P&F came in as a surprise
¾ Upgrade CY11/12 earnings by 4.3%/ 1.5% led by higher
cement prices. Remain concerned on cost as sharp jump in
coal price (Domestic & Int’l) yet to reflect in ACL’s numbers
¾ Stock outperforms 14% over last 3M, see limited positive
triggers. Also valuation at PER of 18 X & EV/ton of USD164/t,
leaves little upside. Downgrade to HOLD - Target Rs140
Revenues +11% yoy, price hike help realization jump of 9.2% qoq
ACL’s revenue at Rs22.07bn grew 11% yoy (+23.4% qoq) driven by 7% growth in
volumes (5.64mnt) and 3.6% yoy jump in realizations at Rs3913/t. Realizations
improved led by price hikes in Ambuja’s Key North & Western where it sells ~70% of it
production. Increasing costs, logistical bottlenecks (wagon shortage) and some pricing
discipline helped cement prices during the quarter. However the sustainability o recent
pricing power remains uncertain given tepid demand growth (Q1CY11 industry
dispacthes grew just ~6%).
Lower RM & Energy costs drive better than expected EBITDA- +95% qoq
Driven by sharp increase in cement realizations , ACL’s EBITDA for the quarter at
Rs6.1bn grew 95% qoq, though remaining flat yoy. However the operating performance
still was above estimates (Rs5.3bn), led by lower than expected RM & Energy cost.
Thought the lower RM costs is on account of negligible clinker purchases during the
quarter, what surprised us is 4.5% qoq decline in P&F cost (Rs854/t), even though
average international coal prices jumped 16% qoq. Consequently total cost at Rs2829/t
declined 4.3% qoq (though +9% yoy), helping EBITDA/t of Rs1085 (+72.3% qoq, -8.2%
yoy,), higher than estimate of Rs942/t. We believe that the recent surge in coal prices,
including 30% coal price hike taken by Coal India is yet to reflect in ACL’s numbers,
hence expect the P&F cost to increase over next couple of quarters.
APAT at Rs4.07bn grew 90.5% qoq
With better realizations and lower than expected costs, ACL’s APAT for the quarter at
Rs4.07bn came in above our estimate Rs3.27 bn(+90.5% qoq). Interests costs
increased by 28% yoy whereas depreciation increased by 38.3% yoy.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
APAT at Rs4.07bn (+-9.8% yoy) sharply above est (Rs3.3 bn),
driven by lower RM & energy cost. Revenue +11%yoy - by
realizations at Rs3913/t jump 3.6% yoy +9.2%qoq
¾ Sharp jump in realisations drive 95% qoq (-1.8% yoy) growth
in EBITDA (Rs 6.1bn v/s est of Rs5.3 bn) – EBITDA/t at Rs1084,
up 72% qoq. 4.5% qoq decline in P&F came in as a surprise
¾ Upgrade CY11/12 earnings by 4.3%/ 1.5% led by higher
cement prices. Remain concerned on cost as sharp jump in
coal price (Domestic & Int’l) yet to reflect in ACL’s numbers
¾ Stock outperforms 14% over last 3M, see limited positive
triggers. Also valuation at PER of 18 X & EV/ton of USD164/t,
leaves little upside. Downgrade to HOLD - Target Rs140
Revenues +11% yoy, price hike help realization jump of 9.2% qoq
ACL’s revenue at Rs22.07bn grew 11% yoy (+23.4% qoq) driven by 7% growth in
volumes (5.64mnt) and 3.6% yoy jump in realizations at Rs3913/t. Realizations
improved led by price hikes in Ambuja’s Key North & Western where it sells ~70% of it
production. Increasing costs, logistical bottlenecks (wagon shortage) and some pricing
discipline helped cement prices during the quarter. However the sustainability o recent
pricing power remains uncertain given tepid demand growth (Q1CY11 industry
dispacthes grew just ~6%).
Lower RM & Energy costs drive better than expected EBITDA- +95% qoq
Driven by sharp increase in cement realizations , ACL’s EBITDA for the quarter at
Rs6.1bn grew 95% qoq, though remaining flat yoy. However the operating performance
still was above estimates (Rs5.3bn), led by lower than expected RM & Energy cost.
Thought the lower RM costs is on account of negligible clinker purchases during the
quarter, what surprised us is 4.5% qoq decline in P&F cost (Rs854/t), even though
average international coal prices jumped 16% qoq. Consequently total cost at Rs2829/t
declined 4.3% qoq (though +9% yoy), helping EBITDA/t of Rs1085 (+72.3% qoq, -8.2%
yoy,), higher than estimate of Rs942/t. We believe that the recent surge in coal prices,
including 30% coal price hike taken by Coal India is yet to reflect in ACL’s numbers,
hence expect the P&F cost to increase over next couple of quarters.
APAT at Rs4.07bn grew 90.5% qoq
With better realizations and lower than expected costs, ACL’s APAT for the quarter at
Rs4.07bn came in above our estimate Rs3.27 bn(+90.5% qoq). Interests costs
increased by 28% yoy whereas depreciation increased by 38.3% yoy.
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