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Weekly US oil data
Upheaval beats s/d news
The latest weeklies are boring in the sense that they do not change our
impression of the constructive trends developing in the US. These data also pale
in significance to the world-shaking events in Japan and the latest twists and
turns of the black turtle of markets that is the ongoing upheaval across MENA.
Earthquake and Tsunami damage add to tensions on global oil markets
If the troubles at Japan’s damaged nuclear power facilities can be contained (in the
widest sense of the word), which we think is the most likely outcome, then Japan’s
oil demand should grow this year and next. Utility power generation is already
adding some 120 to 140kb/d of oil demand from Tepco alone. That incremental oil
demand for utility power-gen will grow as the grid is restored, and should grow still
more after the shoulder months of April-June into the normal seasonal peak of
July/August. In addition, full rescue, recovery and reconstruction efforts should add
materially to diesel demand to fuel distributed power, transport and machinery.
Hardliners across MENA hit back -- hard
In Libya, Colonel Qaddafi has been booking new military victories daily.
International intervention, which was never likely, has failed to materialize. Nor
has Qaddafi’s opposition been able to muster the requisite unity. The reported
notion that two of Benghazi’s tribes switched sides back to Qaddifi signal the
end is near. Substantial oil production will likely stay offline, however, until Tripoli
can find work-arounds for sanctions and operators willing to come in.
More significant is the first cross border intervention (Saudi Arabia into Bahrain).
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories add a relativeluy modest +1.7mbs only – higher
imports (+5% or +380kb/d) contributed to a +2.9mbs build on the Gulf Coast.
Downstream stocks fell further, -6.9mbs, extending a key seasonal trend.
Demand growth retreated further to +0.4% (four week MA, y/y).
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Upheaval beats s/d news
The latest weeklies are boring in the sense that they do not change our
impression of the constructive trends developing in the US. These data also pale
in significance to the world-shaking events in Japan and the latest twists and
turns of the black turtle of markets that is the ongoing upheaval across MENA.
Earthquake and Tsunami damage add to tensions on global oil markets
If the troubles at Japan’s damaged nuclear power facilities can be contained (in the
widest sense of the word), which we think is the most likely outcome, then Japan’s
oil demand should grow this year and next. Utility power generation is already
adding some 120 to 140kb/d of oil demand from Tepco alone. That incremental oil
demand for utility power-gen will grow as the grid is restored, and should grow still
more after the shoulder months of April-June into the normal seasonal peak of
July/August. In addition, full rescue, recovery and reconstruction efforts should add
materially to diesel demand to fuel distributed power, transport and machinery.
Hardliners across MENA hit back -- hard
In Libya, Colonel Qaddafi has been booking new military victories daily.
International intervention, which was never likely, has failed to materialize. Nor
has Qaddafi’s opposition been able to muster the requisite unity. The reported
notion that two of Benghazi’s tribes switched sides back to Qaddifi signal the
end is near. Substantial oil production will likely stay offline, however, until Tripoli
can find work-arounds for sanctions and operators willing to come in.
More significant is the first cross border intervention (Saudi Arabia into Bahrain).
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories add a relativeluy modest +1.7mbs only – higher
imports (+5% or +380kb/d) contributed to a +2.9mbs build on the Gulf Coast.
Downstream stocks fell further, -6.9mbs, extending a key seasonal trend.
Demand growth retreated further to +0.4% (four week MA, y/y).
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