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Pro-stability & autonomous growth, but large scope for slippages
The FY12 budget attempts an expenditure consolidation with a modest 3.4% spending growth
and a lower-than-expected fiscal deficit. Expenditure consolidation comes from lower budget
for both non-plan revenue and capital expenditure, despite higher commitment for plan
spending. As a bargain the finance minister expects private spending to backfill for fiscal
moderation. On balance, we believe the economy would fail to deliver the assumed 9% growth
and will be exposed to risks from elevated commodity prices. This would imply downside risk
to both market earnings and PE multiples.
Expecting private demand to re-balance public spending moderation: While keeping the excise
duty unchanged and providing marginal benefits on the direct taxes, the finance minister is hoping
for a stronger response from private spending-both consumption and investments. In our view, if
indeed the finance minister adheres to the budget numbers, the projected 9% GDP growth for FY12
will be at risk. A 3.4% increase in spending would be an effective de-growth in real terms assuming
5% inflation. Potential risk from continued rise in global crude prices can upset both fiscal estimates
and growth assumptions.
Unrealistic deficit targets: Lower fiscal deficit of Rs4,128bn vs our expectation of Rs4,500bn is
arrived based on an optimistic disinvestment target of Rs400bn and conservative spending. This
translates into an optimistic fiscal deficit/GDP number of 4.6%. In addition, the lower net market
borrowing of Rs3,580bn also assumes an optimistic 36% growth in mobilization through smallsavings
schemes. We believe a realistic market borrowing number could be around Rs4,200bn.
Chasing foreign fund flows: Increased dependence on foreign funds is evident in increased limits for
FII in corporate debt and allowing foreign individuals to investment directly into domestic mutual
funds. Clearly, the finance minister is buying insurance to plug the current account deficit by
enlarging scope foreign flows in all forms. Allowing foreign individuals to invest through mutual
funds route can attract large inflows of Indian funds parked abroad.
Market Strategy-Time to look at interest rate sensitives? Not yet: The budget has attempted to
calm market fears on fiscal imbalances and limit risks on the current account deficit front. In our view,
these measures may only provide temporary comfort. While the budget aims to rekindle the
investment cycle by moderating fiscal spending, there are several extraneous variables (crude prices,
fertilizer prices, etc) which can be unsettling. Should current crude prices (US$105/bbl) prevail in
FY12, the net borrowing would likely be much larger thereby adversely impacting interest rate
sensitive sectors like Banking/Infrastructure/Real Estate. We would overweight selective energy stocks
(which benefit from higher crude price, GRMs, pet chem margins), selective consumer (those with
pricing power), pharma (non-correlated with interest rates) and IT services sector (benefits from
recovery in the US). While the aggregate earnings have not changed much post the event based on
tax proposals, we believe slower growth would impact them eventually. The PE multiple would be at
risk from both slower growth and upside risk to commodity prices.
Sectoral outlook: Consumption, Infra and Agri benefit With the taxes largely being left alone
(against expectations that they would be adversely tinkered with) the budget outcome for many
consumption sectors have been positive (auto, FMCG). The low net borrowing number had positive
impact on interest rate sensitive sectors but it remains to be seen as to how the fine print would
impact sentiment in the days ahead. Infrastructure sector and Agri sector are two sectors which
received significant amount of focus.
Conservative spending projections
From a macro standpoint, FY12 budget is a conservative budget with focus on fiscal
stability reflecting in significantly modest expansion in total spending by just 3.4%.
This is even more conservative than our expectation of 6.5%. Though the total
spending of Rs12,577bn is only marginally higher than our expectation of Rs12,690bn
Conservatism on the spending side reflects in a modest 4.1% growth in revenue
spending and 1.4% de-growth in capital spending. Within non-plan revenue
spending allocations for both subsidy and under government services have been
curtailed (-12.5% and -1.5% respectively).
There does seem to be some under-representation in expenditure under subsidy.
Revised estimate (RE) for FY11 at Rs1,642bn is significantly lower than our estimate of
Rs1,862bn, which was based on a conservative view particularly in food and fertilizer
subsidy (see Exhibit 5 below). Given the rise in global crude prices and large buffer of
food grain with FCI, it is likely that even for FY12 the estimates may be an
underestimation. In our view, the budget estimates have provided for flexibility on
subsidy budget while keeping allocations under other heads very conservative.
Modest revenue targets
On the revenue side, the tax and non-tax revenue projections are broadly in line with
our expectations. The overall revenue receipts are budgeted to grow at 0.8% in FY12,
taking into account 17.9% net tax revenue growth for the centre and a de-growth of
43% in non-tax revenue following the huge collections in FY11 from 3G auction
despite taking a credit of Rs 300bn under spectrum auction for FY12BE. What is
surprising is the less than expected tax revenue growth even in FY11RE, 21.2% RE vs
our projection of 23.4%.
Overall, budget FY12 has taken a conservative view on tax revenues and probably not
inline with a 14% nominal GDP growth or 9% real GDP growth. Budget FY12 has not
taken any tax measures to boost revenues. For instance, contrary to our expectation
the excise duty rates has been kept unchanged and MAT is hiked only by 0.5% to
18.5%. While income tax slab has been increased to Rs 180 thou from Rs 160 thou
surcharge for corporate tax has been reduced from 7.5% to 5%.
Big optimism on fiscal deficit and borrowing targets
While the total expenditure and revenue receipts are broadly in line with our expectations
the only difference has been on capital receipts, particularly non-debt capital receipts
(disinvestments + recovery of loans) and non-market debt mobilization (external
assistance + flows from small saving schemes and other debt receipts).
The lower fiscal deficit of Rs 4,28.17bn vs our estimate of Rs4,500bn is largely on
account of higher disinvestment target of Rs 400bn which is significantly optimistic
compared to our assumption of Rs 150bn and past two year average of Rs 236.62bn
garnered during years of conducive financial conditions.
Net market borrowing of Rs3,580bn (including Rs3,430bn of dated securities and
Rs150bn of short-term borrowing) is significantly lower than our expectation of
Rs4,200-4,300bn due to lower fiscal deficit numbers in FY12 budget (arising from
optimistic disinvestment target) and higher mobilization through debt mobilizationex
market borrowings.
In addition, budget FY12 also takes help from cash draw down of Rs 200bn from cash
balance carried over from FY11.
Pleasing the markets
Overall, the budget has succeeded in calming market fears on fiscal deficit target by
projecting an optimist fiscal deficit/GDP of 4.6% in FY12 and also announcing less
than expected market borrowing. In addition through measures to attract foreign
capital the budget has attempted to address the imbalances on the current account
deficit front. How much of the announcement translates into sustained optimism will
depend on whether the FM can actually walk the talk.
Market Strategy: Time to look at interest rate sensitives? Not yet
Crude prices - the only impediment to a positive interest rate/investment/market
cycle
While the budget aims to address the goal of kick-starting the investment cycle (which
has been weak) by keeping government borrowing under check, factors outside of
government’s control (crude prices, fertilizer prices, etc) would have a big say whether it
would succeed in this objective. The trajectory of interest rates will largely be dependant
on how crude price moves. The petro subsidy that is penciled in for FY12 of Rs236.4bn
corresponds to crude price of $75-$78/bbl which is significantly below the prevailing price
of the Indian crude basket at $105/bbl (This estimate is based on 1/3rd under-recovery
absorption by upstream players, 10-20% absorption by OMCs and the rest by the
government). At the current price, Government subsidy burden for petroleum would
likely be Rs1.05trn (assuming 1/3rd is shared by upstream and OMCs’ share is capped an
absolute amount of Rs50bn). In such a scenario we believe the government’s net
borrowing would be Rs800bn higher (at Rs4.2trn) than current BE of (Rs3.4trn) –
everything else being the same. This would likely create an upward pressure on interest
rates. So while on budget day the market did heave a sigh of relief, the math does indicate
that we may be in for tough times.
Directionally therefore, performance of interest rate sensitive sectors (banking/infra/real
estate) will entirely depend on movement of the Crude Price. Recent spike up in the crude
price has been on the back of events in the MENA region. Should more regime changes
happen over the next 6-12 months, the chances of crude price remaining above $100/bl
looks high and would be detrimental to this segment of the market.
So we would remain underweight interest rate sensitive sectors. With in them there are
some areas like banking where valuations are at or above mean P/Adj Book multiples
making the risk-reward not so attractive. On the other hand we believe there are sectors
like Construction where we believe valuations have become extremely attractive as they
seem to be pricing in the worst – provided one is looking to invest for 18-24 month
investment horizons
Mildly pro-consumption
With discretionary government spending growing at an anemic pace, keeping excise duty
rates constant would help private consumption at the margin. This would be helpful for
demand for consumer sector (durable and non-durables). However Raw material price
pressures would likely offset some of the upsides one might likely see from a demand
perspective. We are therefore selectively positive. There are selective consumer stocks
which have pricing power which are likely to show a steady increase in earnings growth.
Focus on defensives/globally growth sensitives at least till we see a turn around in
crude
We believe the domestic sectors (largely interest rate sensitive) will continue to suffer
because of the high crude price. We would overweight selective energy stocks (which
benefit from higher crude price, GRMs, pet chem margins), selective consumer (those with
pricing power), pharma (non-correlated with interest rates and facing a large generic
opportunity) and IT services sector (which benefits from the pick up in IT spending in the
global economy).
Key measures
Foreign investments
SEBI-registered mutual funds permitted to accept subscription from foreign investors
who meet KYC requirements for equity schemes.
To enhance flow of funds to infrastructure sector, the FII limit for investment in
corporate bonds issued in infrastructure sector being raised.
Public Sector Bank Capitalisation
Rs60bn to be provided during FY12 to enable public sector banks to maintain a
minimum of Tier I CRAR of 8%
Housing Sector Finance
Existing housing loan limit enhanced to Rs250,000 for dwelling units under priority
sector lending.
To enhance credit worthiness of economically weaker sections and LIG households, a
Mortgage Risk Guarantee Fund to be created under Rajiv Awas Yojana.
Agriculture
To improve rice based cropping system in Eastern region, allocation of Rs 4bn has
been made
Agriculture Credit
Credit flow for farmers raised from Rs 3,750 bn to Rs 4,750 bn in FY12.
Interest subvention proposed to be enhanced from 2% to 3% for providing shortterm
crop loans to farmers who repay their crop loan on time.
In view of enhanced target for flow of agriculture credit, capital base of NABARD to be
strengthened by Rs 30bn in phased manner.
Infrastructure and Industry
Allocation of Rs 2,140bn for infrastructure in FY12. This is an increase of 23.3% over
FY11.
To boost infrastructure development, tax free bonds of Rs300bn proposed to be
issued by Government undertakings during FY12.
National Manufacturing Policy
Share of manufacturing in GDP expected to grow from 16% to 25% over a period of
10 years. Government will come out with a manufacturing policy-Focus on
employment generation
Strengthening inclusion
Allocation for social sector in FY12 of Rs 1,609 bn, 17% increased over FY11
MGNREGA
The Government has decided to index the wage rates notified under the MGNREGA
to the Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labour. Total allocation kept unchanged
at Rs 400bn.
Education
Allocation for education increased by 24% over current year. Rs 210bn allocated for
Sarva Siksha Abhiyan, which is 40 % higher than Budget for FY11
Direct Taxes
Exemption limit for the general category of individual taxpayers enhanced from Rs
160 thou to Rs 180 thou
Current surcharge of 7.5 % on domestic companies proposed to be reduced to 5 %.
Rate of Minimum Alternative Tax proposed to be increased from 18 % to 18.5% of
book profits.
Indirect Taxes
Central Excise Duty to be maintained at standard rate of 10 %.
Agriculture and Related Sectors
Basic Custom Duty reduced for specified agricultural machinery from 5% to 2.5%.
Basic Custom Duty reduced on micro-irrigation equipment from 7.5% to 5%
Manufacturing Sector
Rate of Export Duty for all types of iron ore enhanced and unified at 20% ad valorem.
Full exemption from Export Duty to iron ore pellets.
Basic Custom Duty on two critical raw materials of cement industry viz. petcoke and
gypsum is proposed to be reduced to 2.5 %.
Service Tax
Hotel accommodation in excess of Rs. 1,000 per day and service provided by air
conditioned restaurants that have license to serve liquor added as new services for
levying Service Tax.
Services provided by life insurance companies in the area of investment and some
more legal services proposed to be brought into tax net.
Proposals relating to Service Tax estimated to result in net revenue gain of Rs. 40bn.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Pro-stability & autonomous growth, but large scope for slippages
The FY12 budget attempts an expenditure consolidation with a modest 3.4% spending growth
and a lower-than-expected fiscal deficit. Expenditure consolidation comes from lower budget
for both non-plan revenue and capital expenditure, despite higher commitment for plan
spending. As a bargain the finance minister expects private spending to backfill for fiscal
moderation. On balance, we believe the economy would fail to deliver the assumed 9% growth
and will be exposed to risks from elevated commodity prices. This would imply downside risk
to both market earnings and PE multiples.
Expecting private demand to re-balance public spending moderation: While keeping the excise
duty unchanged and providing marginal benefits on the direct taxes, the finance minister is hoping
for a stronger response from private spending-both consumption and investments. In our view, if
indeed the finance minister adheres to the budget numbers, the projected 9% GDP growth for FY12
will be at risk. A 3.4% increase in spending would be an effective de-growth in real terms assuming
5% inflation. Potential risk from continued rise in global crude prices can upset both fiscal estimates
and growth assumptions.
Unrealistic deficit targets: Lower fiscal deficit of Rs4,128bn vs our expectation of Rs4,500bn is
arrived based on an optimistic disinvestment target of Rs400bn and conservative spending. This
translates into an optimistic fiscal deficit/GDP number of 4.6%. In addition, the lower net market
borrowing of Rs3,580bn also assumes an optimistic 36% growth in mobilization through smallsavings
schemes. We believe a realistic market borrowing number could be around Rs4,200bn.
Chasing foreign fund flows: Increased dependence on foreign funds is evident in increased limits for
FII in corporate debt and allowing foreign individuals to investment directly into domestic mutual
funds. Clearly, the finance minister is buying insurance to plug the current account deficit by
enlarging scope foreign flows in all forms. Allowing foreign individuals to invest through mutual
funds route can attract large inflows of Indian funds parked abroad.
Market Strategy-Time to look at interest rate sensitives? Not yet: The budget has attempted to
calm market fears on fiscal imbalances and limit risks on the current account deficit front. In our view,
these measures may only provide temporary comfort. While the budget aims to rekindle the
investment cycle by moderating fiscal spending, there are several extraneous variables (crude prices,
fertilizer prices, etc) which can be unsettling. Should current crude prices (US$105/bbl) prevail in
FY12, the net borrowing would likely be much larger thereby adversely impacting interest rate
sensitive sectors like Banking/Infrastructure/Real Estate. We would overweight selective energy stocks
(which benefit from higher crude price, GRMs, pet chem margins), selective consumer (those with
pricing power), pharma (non-correlated with interest rates) and IT services sector (benefits from
recovery in the US). While the aggregate earnings have not changed much post the event based on
tax proposals, we believe slower growth would impact them eventually. The PE multiple would be at
risk from both slower growth and upside risk to commodity prices.
Sectoral outlook: Consumption, Infra and Agri benefit With the taxes largely being left alone
(against expectations that they would be adversely tinkered with) the budget outcome for many
consumption sectors have been positive (auto, FMCG). The low net borrowing number had positive
impact on interest rate sensitive sectors but it remains to be seen as to how the fine print would
impact sentiment in the days ahead. Infrastructure sector and Agri sector are two sectors which
received significant amount of focus.
Conservative spending projections
From a macro standpoint, FY12 budget is a conservative budget with focus on fiscal
stability reflecting in significantly modest expansion in total spending by just 3.4%.
This is even more conservative than our expectation of 6.5%. Though the total
spending of Rs12,577bn is only marginally higher than our expectation of Rs12,690bn
Conservatism on the spending side reflects in a modest 4.1% growth in revenue
spending and 1.4% de-growth in capital spending. Within non-plan revenue
spending allocations for both subsidy and under government services have been
curtailed (-12.5% and -1.5% respectively).
There does seem to be some under-representation in expenditure under subsidy.
Revised estimate (RE) for FY11 at Rs1,642bn is significantly lower than our estimate of
Rs1,862bn, which was based on a conservative view particularly in food and fertilizer
subsidy (see Exhibit 5 below). Given the rise in global crude prices and large buffer of
food grain with FCI, it is likely that even for FY12 the estimates may be an
underestimation. In our view, the budget estimates have provided for flexibility on
subsidy budget while keeping allocations under other heads very conservative.
Modest revenue targets
On the revenue side, the tax and non-tax revenue projections are broadly in line with
our expectations. The overall revenue receipts are budgeted to grow at 0.8% in FY12,
taking into account 17.9% net tax revenue growth for the centre and a de-growth of
43% in non-tax revenue following the huge collections in FY11 from 3G auction
despite taking a credit of Rs 300bn under spectrum auction for FY12BE. What is
surprising is the less than expected tax revenue growth even in FY11RE, 21.2% RE vs
our projection of 23.4%.
Overall, budget FY12 has taken a conservative view on tax revenues and probably not
inline with a 14% nominal GDP growth or 9% real GDP growth. Budget FY12 has not
taken any tax measures to boost revenues. For instance, contrary to our expectation
the excise duty rates has been kept unchanged and MAT is hiked only by 0.5% to
18.5%. While income tax slab has been increased to Rs 180 thou from Rs 160 thou
surcharge for corporate tax has been reduced from 7.5% to 5%.
Big optimism on fiscal deficit and borrowing targets
While the total expenditure and revenue receipts are broadly in line with our expectations
the only difference has been on capital receipts, particularly non-debt capital receipts
(disinvestments + recovery of loans) and non-market debt mobilization (external
assistance + flows from small saving schemes and other debt receipts).
The lower fiscal deficit of Rs 4,28.17bn vs our estimate of Rs4,500bn is largely on
account of higher disinvestment target of Rs 400bn which is significantly optimistic
compared to our assumption of Rs 150bn and past two year average of Rs 236.62bn
garnered during years of conducive financial conditions.
Net market borrowing of Rs3,580bn (including Rs3,430bn of dated securities and
Rs150bn of short-term borrowing) is significantly lower than our expectation of
Rs4,200-4,300bn due to lower fiscal deficit numbers in FY12 budget (arising from
optimistic disinvestment target) and higher mobilization through debt mobilizationex
market borrowings.
In addition, budget FY12 also takes help from cash draw down of Rs 200bn from cash
balance carried over from FY11.
Pleasing the markets
Overall, the budget has succeeded in calming market fears on fiscal deficit target by
projecting an optimist fiscal deficit/GDP of 4.6% in FY12 and also announcing less
than expected market borrowing. In addition through measures to attract foreign
capital the budget has attempted to address the imbalances on the current account
deficit front. How much of the announcement translates into sustained optimism will
depend on whether the FM can actually walk the talk.
Market Strategy: Time to look at interest rate sensitives? Not yet
Crude prices - the only impediment to a positive interest rate/investment/market
cycle
While the budget aims to address the goal of kick-starting the investment cycle (which
has been weak) by keeping government borrowing under check, factors outside of
government’s control (crude prices, fertilizer prices, etc) would have a big say whether it
would succeed in this objective. The trajectory of interest rates will largely be dependant
on how crude price moves. The petro subsidy that is penciled in for FY12 of Rs236.4bn
corresponds to crude price of $75-$78/bbl which is significantly below the prevailing price
of the Indian crude basket at $105/bbl (This estimate is based on 1/3rd under-recovery
absorption by upstream players, 10-20% absorption by OMCs and the rest by the
government). At the current price, Government subsidy burden for petroleum would
likely be Rs1.05trn (assuming 1/3rd is shared by upstream and OMCs’ share is capped an
absolute amount of Rs50bn). In such a scenario we believe the government’s net
borrowing would be Rs800bn higher (at Rs4.2trn) than current BE of (Rs3.4trn) –
everything else being the same. This would likely create an upward pressure on interest
rates. So while on budget day the market did heave a sigh of relief, the math does indicate
that we may be in for tough times.
Directionally therefore, performance of interest rate sensitive sectors (banking/infra/real
estate) will entirely depend on movement of the Crude Price. Recent spike up in the crude
price has been on the back of events in the MENA region. Should more regime changes
happen over the next 6-12 months, the chances of crude price remaining above $100/bl
looks high and would be detrimental to this segment of the market.
So we would remain underweight interest rate sensitive sectors. With in them there are
some areas like banking where valuations are at or above mean P/Adj Book multiples
making the risk-reward not so attractive. On the other hand we believe there are sectors
like Construction where we believe valuations have become extremely attractive as they
seem to be pricing in the worst – provided one is looking to invest for 18-24 month
investment horizons
Mildly pro-consumption
With discretionary government spending growing at an anemic pace, keeping excise duty
rates constant would help private consumption at the margin. This would be helpful for
demand for consumer sector (durable and non-durables). However Raw material price
pressures would likely offset some of the upsides one might likely see from a demand
perspective. We are therefore selectively positive. There are selective consumer stocks
which have pricing power which are likely to show a steady increase in earnings growth.
Focus on defensives/globally growth sensitives at least till we see a turn around in
crude
We believe the domestic sectors (largely interest rate sensitive) will continue to suffer
because of the high crude price. We would overweight selective energy stocks (which
benefit from higher crude price, GRMs, pet chem margins), selective consumer (those with
pricing power), pharma (non-correlated with interest rates and facing a large generic
opportunity) and IT services sector (which benefits from the pick up in IT spending in the
global economy).
Key measures
Foreign investments
SEBI-registered mutual funds permitted to accept subscription from foreign investors
who meet KYC requirements for equity schemes.
To enhance flow of funds to infrastructure sector, the FII limit for investment in
corporate bonds issued in infrastructure sector being raised.
Public Sector Bank Capitalisation
Rs60bn to be provided during FY12 to enable public sector banks to maintain a
minimum of Tier I CRAR of 8%
Housing Sector Finance
Existing housing loan limit enhanced to Rs250,000 for dwelling units under priority
sector lending.
To enhance credit worthiness of economically weaker sections and LIG households, a
Mortgage Risk Guarantee Fund to be created under Rajiv Awas Yojana.
Agriculture
To improve rice based cropping system in Eastern region, allocation of Rs 4bn has
been made
Agriculture Credit
Credit flow for farmers raised from Rs 3,750 bn to Rs 4,750 bn in FY12.
Interest subvention proposed to be enhanced from 2% to 3% for providing shortterm
crop loans to farmers who repay their crop loan on time.
In view of enhanced target for flow of agriculture credit, capital base of NABARD to be
strengthened by Rs 30bn in phased manner.
Infrastructure and Industry
Allocation of Rs 2,140bn for infrastructure in FY12. This is an increase of 23.3% over
FY11.
To boost infrastructure development, tax free bonds of Rs300bn proposed to be
issued by Government undertakings during FY12.
National Manufacturing Policy
Share of manufacturing in GDP expected to grow from 16% to 25% over a period of
10 years. Government will come out with a manufacturing policy-Focus on
employment generation
Strengthening inclusion
Allocation for social sector in FY12 of Rs 1,609 bn, 17% increased over FY11
MGNREGA
The Government has decided to index the wage rates notified under the MGNREGA
to the Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labour. Total allocation kept unchanged
at Rs 400bn.
Education
Allocation for education increased by 24% over current year. Rs 210bn allocated for
Sarva Siksha Abhiyan, which is 40 % higher than Budget for FY11
Direct Taxes
Exemption limit for the general category of individual taxpayers enhanced from Rs
160 thou to Rs 180 thou
Current surcharge of 7.5 % on domestic companies proposed to be reduced to 5 %.
Rate of Minimum Alternative Tax proposed to be increased from 18 % to 18.5% of
book profits.
Indirect Taxes
Central Excise Duty to be maintained at standard rate of 10 %.
Agriculture and Related Sectors
Basic Custom Duty reduced for specified agricultural machinery from 5% to 2.5%.
Basic Custom Duty reduced on micro-irrigation equipment from 7.5% to 5%
Manufacturing Sector
Rate of Export Duty for all types of iron ore enhanced and unified at 20% ad valorem.
Full exemption from Export Duty to iron ore pellets.
Basic Custom Duty on two critical raw materials of cement industry viz. petcoke and
gypsum is proposed to be reduced to 2.5 %.
Service Tax
Hotel accommodation in excess of Rs. 1,000 per day and service provided by air
conditioned restaurants that have license to serve liquor added as new services for
levying Service Tax.
Services provided by life insurance companies in the area of investment and some
more legal services proposed to be brought into tax net.
Proposals relating to Service Tax estimated to result in net revenue gain of Rs. 40bn.
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