State Assembly Elections - ballot battle: vote for change likely : Edelweiss

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Four states and one Union Territory (UT) are up for assembly polls in April 2011. The Congress Party (in alliance with other parties) is in power in Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Puducherry, while Left parties are in the saddle in West Bengal and Kerala. The main opposition party at the center—BJP—however, has little presence in these states. Together, these four states and one UT contribute a significant 116 seats to the Lok Sabha and, therefore, the election outcome in these states will be crucial in shaping trends in general elections in 2014. 

n  Anti-incumbency factor seen in major states

In most states, the anti-incumbency factor is significant, which is in contrast with the previous assembly elections in Bihar, Orissa, and Gujarat where incumbents were reelected with resounding victory. Historically, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have seen two major parties forming the government alternately. In West Bengal, where the Left Front is in power for the past 33 years, anti-incumbency is a major factor this time. Accordingly, the Congress with its allies is likely to form government in Kerala and West Bengal and lose power in Tamil Nadu; however, in Assam and Puducherry it is likely to retain power. What is important to note is that the Congress forming government in four out of five assemblies cannot necessarily be attributed to its appeal, but could be a result of anti-incumbency (e.g. Kerala) or strong performance by its ally (e.g. West Bengal).

n  Litmus test for Congress on inflation, governance issues

The Congress-led UPA government at the Center has drawn flak on issues like corruption, persistent inflation, and lack of strong leadership, which has negatively impacted the party’s image. In this context, the upcoming state elections, the first since these problems surfaced, will be a gauge of how accountable voters hold the Congress Party for poor governance. Opinion polls in some of the states suggest that issues of persistent inflation and corruption are high on the minds of voters.

n  Left Front could weaken further

Elections, particularly in West Bengal and Kerala, will be crucial for the Left Front, as it has always enjoyed strong presence in these states and is currently in power there. In fact, the Left’s influence over national politics largely emanates from its strong political base in these two states, which together contribute 81 seats to the Lok Sabha.  However, prospects of the Left Front look weak in the forthcoming state elections. In West Bengal, multiple failures (Nandigram, Singur) have hurt the Left Front, while in Kerala uncertainty regarding the leadership and anti-incumbency factors will go against Left parties. Ergo, the likelihood of the Left Front losing ground is high.

In the forthcoming state elections, while Congress would be tested on the issues of corruption and governance; it (along with its allies) is likely to retain power in Assam and Puducherry and gain power in West Bengal and Kerala (at the cost of Left Front). The likely weakening of Left Front would in turn weaken the Left parties-led Third Front at the center. Overall, the assembly elections, most likely, would only strengthen the Congress-led UPA alliance at the center.