28 March 2011

Rollover Analysis-Market-wide OI (D-3 Days): Market-wide roll 41%; Nifty roll 43% : Edelweiss

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On the D-3 day, rollovers on both market wide and Nifty gained momentum. At the
market wide front, ~41% of the positions have been rolled over to the April series.
This is higher than the ~28% positions getting rolled over on the D-3 of the February
series. Market wide futures OI currently stands at ~INR 566 bn (~INR 571 bn on D-3
of last expiry). Roll cost (cost to long rollers) levels in stock futures was ~75 bps
during the day.
On the Nifty front, the OI currently stands at ~INR 182bn (~INR 173 bn on D-3 of
the last expiry). Around 43% of the total Nifty positions have been moved into the
April series till date as compared to 25% on D-3 of February expiry. Long roll
aggression was clearly evident during the major part of the day. Nifty roll cost for the
long rollers which started the day at 21 points expanded to ~30 points. Average Nifty
roll cost was ~26 points (cost to long rollers). Around 9,256 Nifty contracts got
rolled, while ~54,560 contracts were added in the near month.


Among the sectors, FMCG, power and IT stocks have witnessed good rollovers. Rollover in FMCG and power stands at
~49% and ~44% respectively. Counters with prominent rollovers are Zee Ltd (~63%), IOC and Hindustan Unilever
(~56% each). Rollovers have been relatively weak in auto (~33%).
Focus Stock
􀂄 Zee Ltd (Z): The stock witnessed ~63% of its positions getting rolled into the next series. The rollovers this
expiry is on the higher side as compared to the D-3 of the February expiry (~57%). The OI in the counter is
~5.8mn shares and the rolls were happening at a profit of ~58-60bps in today’s session.
􀂄 IOC (IOCL): Around 56% of the total positions have been rolled into the April series, which is higher as
compared to D-3 of the previous expiry (~41%). The counter holds an OI of ~2.99mn shares. Rolls were
happening at a profit of ~78-80 bps.
􀂄 Hindustan Unilever (HUVR): Nearly 56% of the positions have got rolled into the April series, as compared
to ~31% rolls witnessed on D-3 of the previous expiry. The stock holds an open interest of ~19.5mn shares.
The counter was rolling at a loss of ~65-68bps (loss to short rollers) way below the market wide roll cost levels
of ~75 bps (profit to short rollers).

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