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What’s the theme?
PHNX's key project, High Street Phoenix (HSP), is now fully operational and it may generate rental income
of Rs2-2.2bn in FY12E. In addition, rental income would accrue from renewal of 0.15 msf in HSP.
What will move the stock?
We see the following near-term triggers for the stock: (1) Commencement of three Market City Projects in
Q1FY12. (2) Commencement of the first phase of Shangri-La Hotel in Q2FY12. (3) HSP-Phase IV
(0.25 msf) - although it gives a strong delta to the company's valuation, it may add significant upside if
PHNX manages to get the hospitality FSI (5x).
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our EPS estimates for FY11 and FY12 are Rs8.2 and Rs14.3 respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate is
21.1% higher than consensus estimate of Rs11.8. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a
target price of Rs240, which discounts FY12E Gross NAV by 20%.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Slowdown in execution in Market City projects and extending free rental periods may hamper holding
company profitability.
2) Economic slowdown may affect revenue from Market City and HSP.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
What’s the theme?
PHNX's key project, High Street Phoenix (HSP), is now fully operational and it may generate rental income
of Rs2-2.2bn in FY12E. In addition, rental income would accrue from renewal of 0.15 msf in HSP.
What will move the stock?
We see the following near-term triggers for the stock: (1) Commencement of three Market City Projects in
Q1FY12. (2) Commencement of the first phase of Shangri-La Hotel in Q2FY12. (3) HSP-Phase IV
(0.25 msf) - although it gives a strong delta to the company's valuation, it may add significant upside if
PHNX manages to get the hospitality FSI (5x).
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our EPS estimates for FY11 and FY12 are Rs8.2 and Rs14.3 respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate is
21.1% higher than consensus estimate of Rs11.8. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a
target price of Rs240, which discounts FY12E Gross NAV by 20%.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Slowdown in execution in Market City projects and extending free rental periods may hamper holding
company profitability.
2) Economic slowdown may affect revenue from Market City and HSP.
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