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'Milestones' - India Automobile
Sales Tracker
Feb-11 - Unit sales growth (+22% yoy) aided by prebuying
• Sales trend over the month: Passenger car sales grew +20.8% yoy vs.
24.3% YTD; commercial vehicle sales were up +13% vs. 32% YTD
and two-wheeler sales were up 22.9% vs.27.7% YTD. While unit sales
growth was partially aided by pre-buying ahead of the budget (in
anticipation of an excise duty hike), the growth momentum appears to
be moderating given a demanding base effect.
• Key data points on market share: The industry leaders have lost
market share to competition: Maruti (-100bp) in the passenger car
segment, Tata Motors (-220bp) in the commercial vehicle segment and
Hero Honda (-450bp) in the motorbike segment; however, Hero Honda
has gained market share incrementally mom.
• US, China drive global luxury growth: Luxury brands Mercedes-
Benz and Audi saw worldwide sales increase by 10% and 21%,
respectively, y/y in February 2011. The brands cite higher sales in the
US, German and Chinese markets. Mercedes reported a 1% decline
while Audi reported a 17% y/y increase in their Western European
sales.
• Oil price increase: Over the month, oil prices rose sharply on
escalating tensions in the Middle East. While the government of India
has not yet raised fuel prices at the retail level, the rising oil subsidy
will put a strain on government finances and we cannot rule out price
hikes in mid 2011.
• The auto sector (+3% mom) performed broadly in line with the broader
Sensex (+2% mom) during the month given that the excise duties were
left unchanged over the month (vs. expectations of a hike). We believe
that growth rates are likely to moderate into the year given interest /
product price hikes and a demanding base effect; we see competitive
intensity increasing particularly for two wheelers and passenger cars.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
'Milestones' - India Automobile
Sales Tracker
Feb-11 - Unit sales growth (+22% yoy) aided by prebuying
• Sales trend over the month: Passenger car sales grew +20.8% yoy vs.
24.3% YTD; commercial vehicle sales were up +13% vs. 32% YTD
and two-wheeler sales were up 22.9% vs.27.7% YTD. While unit sales
growth was partially aided by pre-buying ahead of the budget (in
anticipation of an excise duty hike), the growth momentum appears to
be moderating given a demanding base effect.
• Key data points on market share: The industry leaders have lost
market share to competition: Maruti (-100bp) in the passenger car
segment, Tata Motors (-220bp) in the commercial vehicle segment and
Hero Honda (-450bp) in the motorbike segment; however, Hero Honda
has gained market share incrementally mom.
• US, China drive global luxury growth: Luxury brands Mercedes-
Benz and Audi saw worldwide sales increase by 10% and 21%,
respectively, y/y in February 2011. The brands cite higher sales in the
US, German and Chinese markets. Mercedes reported a 1% decline
while Audi reported a 17% y/y increase in their Western European
sales.
• Oil price increase: Over the month, oil prices rose sharply on
escalating tensions in the Middle East. While the government of India
has not yet raised fuel prices at the retail level, the rising oil subsidy
will put a strain on government finances and we cannot rule out price
hikes in mid 2011.
• The auto sector (+3% mom) performed broadly in line with the broader
Sensex (+2% mom) during the month given that the excise duties were
left unchanged over the month (vs. expectations of a hike). We believe
that growth rates are likely to moderate into the year given interest /
product price hikes and a demanding base effect; we see competitive
intensity increasing particularly for two wheelers and passenger cars.
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