17 March 2011

JAGRAN PRAKASHAN (JPL): BUY, TP-Rs165 (42% upside) PINC Power Picks: March 2011

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What’s the theme?
We like JPL for its its leadership position in UP (the largest print market in terms of readership and print ad
value), strong position in growing regions like Bihar and Jharkhand, better cost efficiency, phased and
planned expansion into other forms of media businesses, and a wider portfolio (including Mid-Day). 9MFY11
business growth (20% ad growth) strengthens our belief that the company is well poised to benefit from
steady growth in the print media sector.
What will move the stock?
1) Robust ad growth of 18% CAGR FY10-FY12E coupled with margin enhancement would drive overall
growth for the company; 2) Broad based growth across various other business verticals; 3) Blackstone
investment to support its inorganic growth.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our revenue estimates vary from consensus by ~5%, mainly due to incorporation of Mid-day numbers in
FY12. Our FY12 net margin forecast of 19% is in line with consensus. Our FY12 EPS estimate is 4%
higher than consensus.
What will challenge our target price?
1) Increase in newsprint prices; 2) Slow down in economic activity; 3) Increased competition in current
markets where JPL is present.

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