Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
• India added 14.7m GSM subs in February, a strong number with
7% M/M growth. This was driven by strong adds at Vodafone and net
gains at Videocon vs. a net loss in January.
• GSM incumbents don’t see adverse sub impact in February: Idea’s
net adds are flat M/M at 2.5m – a good number in our view – while
Bharti’s net adds declined slightly to 3.2m from 3.3m in January but still
a healthy number. Vodafone added a strong 3.6m subs in February, up
14% M/M. These strong adds from the GSM telcos suggest little impact
from MNP driven churn. We continue to believe the impact from MNP
is not on volumes but more so on pricing as telcos make efforts to retain,
acquire high-end subs.
• BSNL’s net adds have declined by ~30% to 1.5m from 2.2m while
Uninor’s net adds slowed by about the same rate to 1.3m from 1.8m.
• Active subs – Bharti, Idea, Vod stack up better: with 93%, 90% and
78% of their reported base showing up as VLR (as of January 2011) are
leading the pack while RCOM has 66%, Aircel at 60% and some new
operators like S Tel and Etisalat at 41% and 34%. Overall for the market,
TRAI believe that 71% of India’s base is active implying penetration of
46% vs. 65% reported. See page 2 for more details.
• Smaller % of active subs sub metrics appear better for some, but
focus on minutes, ARPM: With a lower number of active or “revenue
generating” subs than reported subs, the per user metrics (ARPU, MOU)
for RCOM appear meaningfully better while those for Bharti and Idea
are slightly better. However, in our view this does not impact underlying
operations which we continue to view via total minutes on the network
and realization per minute carried
TRAI has been released VLR (Visitor Location Register) based subscriber data since
December 2010. According to that, 70.4% of India’s reported sub base was active in
December and 71.1% in January.
Implied penetration for India is ~19pp lower – positive for growth: Penetration
implied by VLR is 44.5% and 46.1% for December / January vs. reported penetration
of 63.2% and 64.7%.
Bharti, Idea, Vod stack up better: with 93%, 90% and 78% of their reported base
showing up as VLR (as of January 2011) are leading the pack while RCOM has
66%, Aircel at 60% and some new operators like S Tel and Etisalat at 41% and 34%.
It is important to note that VLR data includes active subscribers on the last working
day of the month. A sub may be registered in HLR (Home Location Register) but not
in VLR if his/her device is switched-off, outside of the coverage area or not
reachable.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
• India added 14.7m GSM subs in February, a strong number with
7% M/M growth. This was driven by strong adds at Vodafone and net
gains at Videocon vs. a net loss in January.
• GSM incumbents don’t see adverse sub impact in February: Idea’s
net adds are flat M/M at 2.5m – a good number in our view – while
Bharti’s net adds declined slightly to 3.2m from 3.3m in January but still
a healthy number. Vodafone added a strong 3.6m subs in February, up
14% M/M. These strong adds from the GSM telcos suggest little impact
from MNP driven churn. We continue to believe the impact from MNP
is not on volumes but more so on pricing as telcos make efforts to retain,
acquire high-end subs.
• BSNL’s net adds have declined by ~30% to 1.5m from 2.2m while
Uninor’s net adds slowed by about the same rate to 1.3m from 1.8m.
• Active subs – Bharti, Idea, Vod stack up better: with 93%, 90% and
78% of their reported base showing up as VLR (as of January 2011) are
leading the pack while RCOM has 66%, Aircel at 60% and some new
operators like S Tel and Etisalat at 41% and 34%. Overall for the market,
TRAI believe that 71% of India’s base is active implying penetration of
46% vs. 65% reported. See page 2 for more details.
• Smaller % of active subs sub metrics appear better for some, but
focus on minutes, ARPM: With a lower number of active or “revenue
generating” subs than reported subs, the per user metrics (ARPU, MOU)
for RCOM appear meaningfully better while those for Bharti and Idea
are slightly better. However, in our view this does not impact underlying
operations which we continue to view via total minutes on the network
and realization per minute carried
TRAI has been released VLR (Visitor Location Register) based subscriber data since
December 2010. According to that, 70.4% of India’s reported sub base was active in
December and 71.1% in January.
Implied penetration for India is ~19pp lower – positive for growth: Penetration
implied by VLR is 44.5% and 46.1% for December / January vs. reported penetration
of 63.2% and 64.7%.
Bharti, Idea, Vod stack up better: with 93%, 90% and 78% of their reported base
showing up as VLR (as of January 2011) are leading the pack while RCOM has
66%, Aircel at 60% and some new operators like S Tel and Etisalat at 41% and 34%.
It is important to note that VLR data includes active subscribers on the last working
day of the month. A sub may be registered in HLR (Home Location Register) but not
in VLR if his/her device is switched-off, outside of the coverage area or not
reachable.
No comments:
Post a Comment