26 March 2011

India Gold Survey: Gold – Losing Its Luster? Morgan Stanley

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Why Should You Read this Report? This survey gives insights into probably one of the least-understood macro variables in India –- one that affects growth, bank deposits, liquidity and the current account.

Investment Conclusion: AlphaWise evidence suggests that India’s gold demand is likely to fall in 2011. Using AlphaWise evidence, we expect gold demand (in tons) to fall between 5% and 26% in 2011. Using Morgan Stanley’s average gold price forecast for 2011 (which is up 18% on the average price at which Indians purchased gold in 2010), this translates into a +11% to –13% change in value of gold consumption.

Implications: In our view, a fall in gold demand will have positive impact on liquidity and deposit growth and thus for banking sector earnings. In addition, the current account deficit can surprise on the downside with positive implications on growth



Why Gold Matters?

Gold seems intricately linked to real rates and deposit growth and thus liquidity.

Its influence on the current account creates obvious linkages to overall growth.

Its position on household balance sheets and savings pools has implications on wealth effect and savings/consumption behavior.

In the context, we collected primary data on household behavior in regard to gold.


Gold – The Buy Call

According to World Gold Council, India consumed 963 tons of gold in 2010, one-third of world gold demand. What drives gold demand in India?

How frequently, when and from where do Indians purchase gold?

What form of gold is purchased – jewelry, coins, bars?

What will be the likely demand growth for gold in 2011?



Gold – The Sell Call

Our Gold Guru, Peter Richardson, expects gold prices to fall over the next five years. Will this drive Indians to sell gold?

Alternatively, are Indians willing to borrow against gold? What proportion of Indians go for such loans? What drives such decisions?

Among all assets, will Indians liquidate gold at the beck and call of tough times?



Gold – The Investment Call

Gold is currently an estimated 10% of household balance sheets. Do Indians consider gold to be an investment - long term or short term?



Gold – Losing Its Luster?
Key Conclusions

Gold appetite seems to be waning as prices are too high.

Our estimates using AlphaWise evidence suggests that gold demand can fall between 5% and 26% in 2011.

In value terms, at the average price forecast by Peter Richardson, 2011 gold consumption growth could range between +11% to -13%.

50% of gold demand seems non-discretionary* and, hence, demand destruction is not obvious.

Indians appear reluctant to sell gold and will consider doing so only in a severe financial crunch. The attitude to taking loans against gold is not materially different.

Gold is Indian households’ preferred short-term investment option due to its “safety” and “higher-return” characteristic.

Even though gold has been the best-performing asset class over the past several years, households seem to rank property ahead of gold as a long-term investment.
AlphaWise Evidence

Discretionary gold buying is about half of the total gold buying. This is similar across income classes, social strata as well as regions.

Jewelry is highly preferred over gold bars or biscuits

Two-thirds of the sample buy gold at least once a year.

In 2011, 37% of the households in our sample are likely to buy gold (more inclined toward bars/coins than jewelry) and 30% of are unlikely to buy. The rest are unsure about their plans.

For two-thirds of the respondents who are unlikely to buy gold, high gold prices is key for their decision.

Only 18% of the sample are likely to sell gold in future. The key events to sell gold for cash are likely a financial crunch or when gold prices go up.

Interestingly, gold is not the first asset that households liquidate during bad times. It is equities.

Our survey suggests only 14% of our sample have taken up loans against gold. In most cases, the loan is taken for business purposes.

In the short term, gold is the best asset class to invest for 60% of our sample of gold investors. In the long run, property leads in terms of preference (for 36% of them) followed by gold (for 30% of them).
Key Implications

If gold demand falls as suggested by our work, it has positive implications for liquidity and deposit growth and thus for banking sector earnings.

The current a/c deficit can surprise on the downside with positive implications on growth. The current account deficit can fall by 12bp to 59bp purely due to the fall in gold consumption using our estimates. Chetan Ahya, our economist, expects the CAD to narrow 20bp to 2.9% in 2011.



*Gold purchased for religious occasions, marriages and other such social obligations
– other purchases done for investments, fashion and insurance are considered discretionary purchases


Risks to Our Conclusions

Our survey participants believe gold prices are rich – if this view changes, demand may not come off as the survey indicates given how investor psychology works.

Inflation expectations could anchor gold demand

Rising rural incomes may promote more non- discretionary demand. We have surveyed only urban households. Rural demand appears to be dependent on rains.


What Did We Do? Scope and Limitations of Our Survey

Methodology

The survey was conducted among middle and high-income households in urban India.

We conducted the survey in 16 cities in India spread across all regions to give a good representation of urban India. Each city had minimum population of 1 million.

The survey was conducted via house-to-house random sampling during January–February 2011.

Survey Respondents - Eligibility criteria for respondents:

Household belongs to Socio-economic Classes A / B / C – representing urban middle and high-income households.

Respondent is Chief Wage Earner in the household,

Age of respondent - above 21 years,

Gender of respondent – Male,

Respondent is an influencer or decision maker in gold purchase.

5,054 Total Contacts – We contacted 5,054 households for the purpose of the survey.

2,606 Incidence of Gold Buying - Of these, 2,606 households had bought gold in any form in the last 12 months – hence the incidence of gold buying in urban India among middle and high-income households is estimated to be 52%

N=1,613 Detailed Interviews were conducted among the gold buyers, who had bought more than 5 grams of gold in any form in the last 12 months. This report is based on the final sample of 1,613 respondents.

Survey Limitations

The aim of the survey was to understand purchase and investment habits for gold; hence, we conducted the survey among middle and high-income households. The survey is not representative of lower income households (Socio-economic Classes D / E) in Urban India

Explaining Our Sampling process

A sample size of 1,613 (N=1,613) consumers was chosen. The achieved sample is representative of the population resident in the 16 cities across India we surveyed in terms of income and age.

Based on the population size of these cities, and on India's urban population as a whole, our achieved sample size (N=1,613) provides robust data from which to draw statistically reliable conclusions. It enables us to conduct analysis on sub- groups and test statistical differences between these groups on variables such as region, income, and gold ownership.

At the overall level, the sample size gives us a low margin of error of +/- 2.05% at 90% confidence level.

A larger sample size would not have provided substantially more accurate results nor greatly lowered the margin of error, however it would have considerably increased cost and timing of the study.

WHY GOLD MATTERS TO INDIA
The Liquidity Link


Gold Demand Seems to Have an Inverse Correlation with the Real Interest Rates

The strong demand growth in gold since 2003 (with the exception of 2009) has coincided with low or negative real interest rates (defined as the gap between reported WPI inflation and the 91-day yield) in India.

Correspondingly, real interest rates were the lowest ever in 2010, matching the strongest year for gold demand growth (in YoY terms, actual tons and dollar value).




Gold Demand Growth and Deposit Growth Move in Opposite Directions

A slow down in deposit growth is invariably followed by a pick up in gold demand growth.

The Growth Link



Gold Demand as % of GDP – At Record Levels

Historically, gold demand has accounted for 1.5% of GDP. However, in 2010, the share rose 0.8ppt to touch a new high of 2.3%.



Gold Is Also Driving the Current Account Deficit Up

Given that India imports most of its gold, this high share of gold in GDP essentially reflects in the current account deficit.

The Household Balance Sheet Link


Gold – India’s Best-performing Asset Class in 2010

Gold has outperformed other asset classes over the past five years.

In the last 10- and 15-years, gold as an asset class is a close second to equities in returns.



Gold Investments as % of Household Savings Shot Up in 2010

Gold is a critical component of the household balance sheet. The World Gold Council estimates above- ground ownership of gold at over 18,000 tons, which is worth US$900 billion at current prices – more than half of India’s GDP.

In 2010, Indians bought more gold than ever before. Consumption was up more than 100% YoY.



Debate #1: The Gold Buy Call
Understanding the Gold Fetish

63% of the Respondents Unsure of Buying/Not Buyers of Gold


Will Indians Continue to Buy Gold in 2011?
AlphaWise Evidence

37% of the sample is likely to further invest in gold over the next 12 months. While 30% are not looking to make any investment in the next 12 months.

Another one-third are unsure of their intentions for 2011.

Two-thirds of the respondents feel the prices are high to buy gold.



Why will gold demand fall in 2011?

Survey suggests two-thirds of the sample is either not likely to or unsure about buying gold in 2011.

Only half of India’s gold demand is non-discretionary.
What gives us confidence?

The strong demand and all-time high prices of gold in 2010.

Gold demand has fallen 6x and 9x YoY in dollar terms and tonnage, respectively, over the past 18 years. The average fall in the value of purchases is 8% and the maximum fall was 12%. The average fall in terms of tons is 9% and maximum fall was 22%.
What could change our forecasts?

If gold prices continue to rise, demand may not come off as the survey indicates given how investor psychology works.

Inflation expectations could anchor gold demand

Rising rural incomes may promote more non-discretionary demand. We have surveyed only urban households.


In India, gold investments are more in the form of jewelry than just the yellow metal. Will there be a shift in preference in 2011?
AlphaWise Evidence

Noticeably, our sample of households (who intend to buy gold in 2011) are likely to buy 56% more gold coins and bars than they did in the past 12 months. In contrast, they are likely to buy only 2% more of jewelry in 2011 over 2010.

Despite the increased preference for gold coins and bars in 2011, at the aggregate level, the allocation to gold jewelry continues to be higher than gold coins.



In 2010, India’s gold demand was about one-third of world’s gold demand. We surveyed consumers to get the key drivers and occasions that led to the sharp pick up in demand last year.
AlphaWise Evidence

54% of the gold buying is discretionary spending. This includes the investments, gifting, back-up for bad times, and likely for the yellow metal.

46% of the gold buyers regard marriages and religious occasions as the important reasons for gold buying.

Surprisingly, only 16% of the respondents buy gold as an investment.

Only 10% of the respondents buy gold as a back-up for bad times.

Again, functions and festivities are key occasions when households buy gold in India.


Are Indians choosing other gold products over gold Jewelry?
AlphaWise Evidence
–86% of the gold investors bought gold jewelry vs. other gold products.

The trend is similar across various income classes.
–Interestingly, not all buy gold every year. Two-thirds of the gold buyers invest in gold at least once a year.


In India, the unorganized local jewelers have dominated the gold market for a long time Are Indians becoming brand conscious or still choose the traditional jeweler?
AlphaWise Evidence

60% of the households prefer to shop from traditional jewelers.

More households prefer to buy gold coins and bars from branded jewelers.



Debate #2: The Gold Sell Call
Will Gold Lose Its Glow?


Will Indians liquidate gold for consumption in future?
AlphaWise Evidence

Less than one-fifth of the gold owners are likely to sell their gold in future.

Respondents with monthly income of less than Rs25K p.m. are slightly more willing to sell than the ones in higher income category.

37% of the sample households are likely to sell gold in the event of financial crunch. Moreover, 30% of the respondents claim that they will sell gold when the prices go up.



Have Indians ventured to sell gold for cash in the past?
AlphaWise Evidence

Only 11% of our sample have sold gold for cash.

Half of sold the gold for cash due to financial issues.
–Our sample of respondents are likely to liquidate their equity holdings during difficult times.



Are Indians taking the opportunity to create savings or consumption by leveraging their gold?
AlphaWise Evidence

Just 14% of the respondents have taken up lending of gold.

Among regions, more households have taken up gold loans in the southern regions (40%) vs. other regions.

Local jewelers and banks are the preferred sources for the loans taken against gold.


Do Indians Take Loans against Gold for Investment Purposes?
AlphaWise Evidence
–About two-thirds of the gold loans are taken to fund either a business expense or for some sudden medical expense.
–Only 10% of the households sell their gold to buy property.
–62% of the respondents the loans have taken loans at an interest of 10-15% per annum.


Debate #3: The Gold Investment Call
Short-term or Long-term Choice?


What is the most preferred asset in the short term (less than 12 months)?
AlphaWise Evidence

About 20% of our sample do not choose to make short-term investments.

60% of the investing respondents choose gold as the best short-term investment.

Safety, better returns and liquidity drive the short- term investment decisions.

Reasons like easy to store, liquidity, or hedge against inflation seem to be less important than the safety and return prospects from the investments.


What is the most preferred asset in the long term (more than 12-months)?
AlphaWise Evidence

In the long run, 36% of the respondents believe property to be the best investment choice in the long run.

60% of the respondents believe that investment in property generates better returns over other assets and is also the safest investment.































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