29 March 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) March 29, 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Coming from a strong weekly performance, the index did not disappoint the bulls on the first day of the week as it traded with strength in the first half. The second half was awash with volatility as Nifty’s attempt to stay above 5700 was faced with strong supply. However the choppy day ended with gains, and the index closed a shade below its 200-DMA (5691). The hourly charts indicate that oscillators have reached overbought levels, showing initial signs of negative divergence developing. Even the market breadth slid in favour of declining stocks; despite the Nifty 50 A/D ratio closing at 2:1. In the immediate short-term Nifty can consolidate (sideways / corrective activity) between 5700-5620 under a weakening momentum setup; but the Short / Medium term trend is firmly in favour of further upside after breaking out of the consolidation pattern.
§  Sectoral trends were seen mixed, with Autos and Cap Goods leading the pack. Banking stocks closely followed the leaders. Healthcare shares came in for a correction, and Realty shares shed gains after a strong move in the previous week. BSE Midcap index is trading a shade below its downward sloping trend line resistance of 6800. A break and close above will result in a bullish breakout will propel it towards 7175.
§  Bullish Setups: RIL, BOB, Voltas (VOLT), Power Grid (PWGR), DLF, IFCI
§  Bearish Setups: Maruti (MSIL), Tech Mahindra (TECHM), GAIL
§  US markets took a breather after a strong upmove in the previous week. The near-term outlook has improved with the SPX closing above 1300 (DJIA above 12000) and should likely extend to test the year’s highs. DXY has formed a ‘Piercing Line’ candlestick pattern on the weekly chart indicating upside risks in the near-term. Commodities have seen corrective action in the past 2-3 trading sessions against an improving USD scenario.

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