16 March 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 16.3.11

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  The index slid off the upward course charted day before yesterday by dropping below 5400 owing to the panic set across global markets. After opening with a huge gap down, Nifty staged a recovery of more than 1% off the lows but later gave in to the selling pressure at 5500, to finally end the day down ~1.5%. Hourly momentum oscillators have turned sideways owing to the choppy moves, and the index is whipsawing against the 21 and 50 hourly EMAs. Market breadth dropped sharply in favour of declining stocks; and Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio turned adverse at 1:7. The intraday volatility for the past few sessions suggests that Nifty is clearly in restricted to a trading range of 5300-5600 and is not likely to break past in the near future.

§  The selloff can be mainly attributed to strong declines in Realty, Auto, Metals and Power shares. Barring the Oil & Gas sector, all other sectoral indices ended with losses. BSE Oil & Gas index is in a clear uptrend making higher tops and bottoms on weekly chart. We look for a test of 10225 over the coming week.

§  Bullish Setups: Reliance (RIL), CIPLA, RCOM, Voltas (VOLT), Tata Global (TGBL)

§  Bearish Setups: HUL (HUVR), GMR Infra (GMRI), SESA, Renuka Sugars (SHRS)

·         Global stocks have plunged amid risk fears from Japan. The Nikkei was down ~10% in yesterday’s session and the next best support level for the index is pegged at 7950 (78.6% retracement of the upmove from March 2009 to April 2010). German DAX has closed below 200-DEMA (6676) raising risk of further losses. Gold has dropped below $1400 amid risk aversion indicating a short-term top. Crude Oil has retreated below $100, but finds good support at $96.75 from where a fresh advance is likely.

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