06 March 2011

BofA Merrill Lynch : Identifying Over-Owned/ Under- Owned Stocks

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India Strategy
Identifying Over-Owned/
Under- Owned Stocks
􀂄 FII portfolio: O/W on financials, industrials & U/W on
Energy fall; O/W on Autos rise
􀂄 During the Oct-Dec quarter, FIIs were major buyers, while domestics (both
MFs & insurance) were net sellers.
􀂄 Financials and Industrials, two favorite sectors for FII, saw muted interest during
the quarter, resulting in a fall of their O/W. Utilities was the biggest sector bought
by the FIIs, followed by Autos and Metals & Mining. However, index changes led
to no alteration in the U/W of Utilities and Metals & Mining. Heavy buying in Autos
led by Tata Motors led to an increase in its O/W for FIIs.
􀂄 Overall, financials continue to be the biggest over-owned sector. The top 4
positions in the over-owned list are financial stocks (SBI, HDFC, ICICI and
Axis Bank), once again reiterating the known FII bias. However, the buying
was muted compared to the weight of financials in the FII portfolio, leading to
a marginal drop in O/W.

􀂄 Telecom and industrial have been losing FII favor over the past 8-10 quarters.
While the O/W of telecom has reduced from 5.3% to 1.8%, the O/W of
industrials has reduced from 2.5% to 0.2%. On the other hand, the U/W of
Energy has been reducing steadily from 9% to 4.2%.
􀂄 Key sells in this quarter were: SBI, BHEL, Sesa Goa, IBREL and Bharti Airtel.
Key buys were: Tata Motors, Power Grid, Coal India, RIL and M & M.
Domestic MF Portfolio: O/W on industrials & U/W on metals
fall; U/W on Autos & O/W on consumers rise
􀂄 Domestic mutual fund portfolio is in stark contrast with that of FIIs, with
Industrials being the major overweight sector, a sector on which FIIs are only
marginally positive. Consumer Staples is another sector where mutual funds
are heavily overweight in contrast to FIIs, which are U/W on the sector. They
are also underweight on Financials, on which FIIs are highly Over-weight.
􀂄 On the similar lines of the FIIs, domestic mutual funds were buyers on Metals
& Mining and Energy. On the other hand, in contrast to FIIs, MFs were sellers
of Utilities, Autos and financials.
􀂄 During the quarter, mutual funds bought Energy, Metals & Mining and
Software and sold Autos, Industrials, Telecom and Utilities.
LIC turns seller
On the similar lines of MFs, which were sellers in most of the sectors, LIC was
also a net seller across most sectors. LIC sold Pharma (Sun Pharma and Dr.
Reddy’s), Financials (ICICI Bank, Kotak & Canara Bk), Cement (ACC) and Autos
(Tata Motors). LIC bought Utilities (Rel Infra) and Industrials (BHEL).


Market Ownership Structure
FIIs remained bullish on the market, reflected by the FIIs deploying funds in the
Indian market in Q3FY11. Close to USD 8 bn was brought in the Indian equity
markets by the FIIs in the quarter. On the other hand, domestic MFs were sellers
in the quarter, with a net outflow of close to USD 1.1bn. On the other hand,
insurers, led by LIC, were net sellers of close to USD 1.4bn.


FII ownership analysis
FIIs remained positive in 3QFY11 and were significant buyers of Indian stocks.
They put close to USD 8 bn in the Indian equity markets during October’10-
December’10, compared to a USD 4bn inflow in the previous quarter.
􀂄 FIIs have bought across most of the sectors. However, the quantum of
buying was varied, resulting in small changes in OW/UW of few sectors.
􀂄 FIIs continued with their maximum O/W on financials at the expense of other
sectors. Five financial companies figure in the top 10 over-owned list,
including top 4 (HDFC, SBI, ICICI and Axis Bank), once again reiterating the
known FII bias. However, the sector witnessed muted buying by the FIIs
compared to the weight of the financials in their portfolio, which led to a
decline in the O/W of the financials. Telecom’s O/W was led by the fact that
stocks like Bharti continue to be absent from the MSCI Index.
􀂄 Energy remained the largest U/W sector for the FIIs. The sector saw some
amount of buying activity by the FIIs. They bought Reliance, which led to the
underweight of the sector coming down marginally.
􀂄 Software is the 2nd-largest underweight sector for the FIIs, which largely
remained unchanged during the quarter.
􀂄 The Utility sector was the biggest sector in terms of FII buying. FIIs
participated in the follow-on offering of Power Grid and also bought large-cap
names such as GAIL and R Power. However, Coal India coming into the
MSCI index led to a marginal increase in U/W.
􀂄 The Auto sector was 2nd-biggest sector in terms of FII buying. FIIs
participated in Tata Motors fund raising. They also bought M&M and Hero
Honda. However, they were the sellers of Bajaj Auto. Their O/W for the
quarter has gone up significantly on account of this buying.
􀂄 The Industrial sector continued to lose favor from the FIIs, which were
marginal net buyers of the sector, reducing the OW of the sector. FIIs sold
BHEL and ILFS transport networks, while they bought L&T & Adani
Enterprise.
􀂄 Metals & Mining was also one of the sectors that was favored by the FIIs, as
they bought into Coal India and also bought JSW steel.
􀂄 Key buys in this quarter were: Tata Motors, Power Grid, Coal India, Reliance
Industry and Mahindra & Mahindra.
􀂄 Key sells were: SBI, BHEL, Sesa Goa, IBREL and Bharti Airtel.



Over-Owned/Under-owned Stocks and Sectors
by FIIs
We have updated our analysis of FII holdings to determine the sectors and stocks
that FIIs as a whole are OW / UW on, following availability of the shareholding
pattern as on December 30, 2010.
Methodology Recap
Based on FII holdings in individual BSE-500 companies, we calculated an
aggregate FII portfolio in India and their percentage holdings in various stocks
and sectors. We then compared this with the MSCI weight to determine sectors
and stocks that FIIs are O/W/U/W on. One anomaly is in the companies that have
issued ADRs/GDRs. Given that these are also partly held by non-FIIs, we should
ideally have included only the FII holding of GDRs/ADRs in our analysis.
However, since we do not get a separate break-up of the ADR/ GDR holding into
FIIs/ non-FIIs, our analysis may show a higher FII weight in stocks with a high
ADR/ GDR component, than is actually the case.
Sector Ownership- Overweight on financials & industrials
fall; Underweight on energy fall
Financial: Financials, the biggest O/W sector, saw net buying by the FIIs, but in a
lower proportion than their weight. FIIs bought midcap financials like SKS
Microfinance (USD 290mn), Yes Bank (USD 165mn), Mannappuram (USD
170mn) and Canara Bank (USD 120mn). However, FIIs sold SBI (USD 380mn)
and HDFC Bank (USD 50mn). However, the net buying was muted compared to
the weight of financials in the FII portfolio, leading to a drop in O/W.
Industrials: The Industrials sector was also one of the sectors that saw muted FII
buying compared to its weight. FIIs bought L&T (USD 90mn) and Adani
Enterprises (USD 200mn). However, they were sellers of BHEL (USD 190mn)
and ILFS Transport Network (USD 60mn). Overall, they were marginal buyers of
the sector. This has lead to decrease in the O/W for the sector.
Metals & Mining: Metals & Mining was also one of the sectors that was favored by the
FIIs, as they bought into Coal India (USD 1bn) and also bought JSW steel (USD165mn).
Autos: Autos is another big sector in terms of FII buying. FIIs bought Tata Motors
(USD 1300mn), Mahindra & Mahindra (USD 350mn) and Hero Honda (USD
140mn). This led to an increase in Consumer Discretionary O/W.
Utilities: Utilities was the biggest sector in terms of FII buying. They bought Power Grid
(USD 1.1bn) and NTPC (USD 180mn), while bought JSW energy (USD 190mn).



Historical Snapshot of the Sector-Ownership Patterns
􀂄 The U/W on Energy has been decreasing over the past few quarters. This
quarter, as well, the trend continued with the U/W coming down largely on
account of buying in RIL.
􀂄 The U/W on metals & mining continue to increase, however, the underweight
has increased largely on account of index change this quarter.
􀂄 The O/W on the financial sector has remained the highest, however, it has
come down from the recent levels.
􀂄 The U/W on the Consumer sector has also decreased over the previous
quarters, led by buying done by FIIs in consumer names, e.g., ITC.
􀂄 U/W on Software continued to remain high, as there was very muted buying
done by FIIs during the quarter.



Stocks Over-Owned/Under-Owned
Table 4 details the FII holdings in all MSCI stocks and the extent to which they
are O/W/U/W compared to the MSCI Index. Tables 2 and 3 list the top overowned
and under-owned stocks:
Key Highlights:
􀂄 There are 5 financial stocks in the top 10 over-owned stocks of the FIIs,
including the top-4. This, once again, reiterates the FII bias toward the
sector.
􀂄 FIIs continue to underweight all the heavyweights like Reliance, Infosys,
HUL, and ITC amongst others.
􀂄 U/W of the Energy has dropped due to the buying done in the sector by the
FIIs led by RIL.
􀂄 There was only 1 change in the top -10 over- owned stock lists by FIIs.
IBREL was replaced by the new entrant REC in the list of top over-owned
stocks. There was no change in Top under- owned stocks list though.


What FIIs Bought and Sold
􀂄 FIIs were clearly overall bullish on the market as a whole. They were
particularly bullish on Utilities, Metals & Autos this quarter.
􀂄 However, FIIs showed muted interest in their traditional favorites: software,
financials and industrials.
􀂄 Generally, FIIs had a bullish outlook on the mid-caps as well. They bought
midcap financial, Industrial and Pharma stocks like Indusind Bank, Yes Bank,
Manappiuram, BGR, Voltas, Glenmark, Biocon & Lupin.


Domestic Mutual Funds
As opposed to the FIIs, domestic MF were net sellers in the equity market, with
net outflows of close to $1.1bn in the quarter, as opposed to the net outflows of
$100 mn in the previous quarter.
The domestic mutual fund portfolio is in stark contrast with that of FIIs, with
Industrials being major overweight sector, a sector on which FIIs are only
marginally positive. Consumer Staples is another sector where domestic mutual
funds are heavily overweight, in contrast to FIIs, which are marginal U/W on the
sector. They are also underweight Telecom and Financials, where FIIs are more
O/W. However, on the similar lines of FIIs, domestic mutual funds are also
underweight metals & mining sector.
􀂄 Industrials continue to be the biggest O/W for domestic MFs. The sector
witnessed selling in stocks like Adani Enterprise and mid-caps like Crompton
Greaves, GMR and HCC.
􀂄 In contrast to FIIs, for mutual funds, utilities was the biggest sector sold by
value led by NTPC & Tata Power.
􀂄 On the similar lines of FIIs, metals & mining was the biggest sector bought by
value, led by their participation in Coal India and MOIL primary issues.
􀂄 Autos, Financials, Telecom and Consumers were other sectors that
witnessed selling by the MFs, whereas Software and Energy were the
sectors that saw buying.
Sector Ownership- O/W on industrials & U/W on metals fall;
U/W on Autos & O/W on consumers rise
Industrials: Industrials remained the biggest O/W for the domestic MFs.
However, domestic mutual funds trimmed their O/W on the sector. They sold
Adani Enterprise (USD 80mn) and Crompton Greaves (USD 50mn). This has
decreased their O/W on the sector.
Metals & Mining: Metals & Mining sector was the biggest sector bought by the
domestic MFs, as they participated strongly in the primary issues of Coal India
(USD280mn) and MOIL (USD 40mn). This has brought down the U/W for the
domestic MFs.
Consumer: Consumer was the other sector that mutual funds sold moderately,
led by ITC (USD 30mn) and United Spirits (USD 30mn). However, they bought
HUL (USD 30mn) and Shree Renuka Sugar (USD 40mn). This muted selling vs.
their weight in MF portfolio has led to a marginal increase in their O/W.
Autos: Autos was another sector where, in contrast to FIIs, domestic MFs sold.
The selling was led by Tata Motors (USD 240mn), Hero Honda (USD 40mn) and
Maruti (USD 40mn). This has led to an increase in the U/W of consumer
discretionary for the MFs.
Software: Software was the 2nd-biggest sector bought by the MFs during the
quarter, led by Infosys (USD 190mn) and Wipro (USD 20mn). Infosys is the 2nd
most under owned stock for the MFs.


Buying/Selling Patterns
Domestic mutual funds sold Utilities (NTPC and Tata Power), Autos (Tata Motors
& Maruti), Financials (Canara Bank & REC), Industrials (Adani Enterprise &
IVRCL) and Telecom (Bharti & Idea). On the other hand, they bought Metals &
Mining (Coal India and MOIL), Software (Infosys) and Energy (Reliance
Industries). The top 5 stocks bought by the domestic MFs are Coal India, Infosys,
RIL, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. The top stocks sold by the domestic MFs are
Tata Motors, NTPC, Canara Bank and REC.


Life Insurance Corporation
On the similar lines of MFs, which were sellers in most of the sectors, LIC was
also a net seller across most sectors. LIC sold Pharma (Sun Pharma and Dr.
Reddy’s), Financials (ICICI Bank, Canara Bank), and Cement (ACC & Ultratech).
LIC bought Utilities (Rel Infra) and Industrials (BHEL).


Promoters
On an overall basis, promoters decreased their stake in companies by doing
rounds of QIP and equity raising. Govt. disinvestments in the PSU companies
also reduced the promoter share. However, in many IPOs, dilution of promoter
stake was lower, which had a muted impact on the overall promoter stake in BSE-
500 index. They decreased their stake in companies like PowerGrid, Shipping
Corporation, JSW Steel, Parsvnath, Ansal Properties and Rel Power amongst
others. Promoter stake went up in companies like SpiceJet, Everonn Edu, Amtek
India, ABNL, Indian Hotels and Arvind Ltd amongst others.










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