20 February 2011

Tulip Telecom, TTSL IN, OW:: HSBC - India Investor Conference Highlights

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Focus on fibre to expand share and margins
 First phase of the data centre will focus on 88,000 square feet. This should allow benefits of scale longer term. While the
first step is introduction of a strategic partner, data centre operations should begin over the next six months.
 Fibre continues to be the focus; expecting c60-70% of revenues in FY13e to come from fibre-based business. This should
allow margin expansion and market share gains.
 Capex estimates for next year are unlikely to exceed cUSD90m all-inclusive. The company is comfortable with net
debt/EBITDA of 2.5x and debt/equity of 1.25x.
 The infrastructure created via radio is unlikely to lose value as the investments are allowing the company to participate in
various government projects like APDRP.
 Biggest challenge will be execution so that the company can maintain its unique value proposition of faster response/lower
downtimes.

Valuation and risks
 Our target price of INR235 is based on a blend of PE and DCF and implies PEs of 9.5x FY12e EPS and 7.5x FY13e EPS.
The stock is trading at 6.4x FY12e EPS and 4.1x FY12e EV/EBITDA. We expect EPS to grow 22% in FY12e and 27% in
FY13e, driven by other enterprise segments like IPLC, DLC, corporate internet as well as government projects.
 Risks include lower than estimated pick up in the fibre business and cuts in corporate spending.

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