26 February 2011

rollover report of Feb-March 2011: Angel Broking

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Though NIFTY (64.79%) rollover is less in percentage terms as compared to last 3 months average, the
underlying is starting March series with high open interest base. These positions which got rolled over
are mainly short positions in the index. Interestingly BANKNIFTY (71.43%) which rallied in early part of
series due to short covering has seen significant shorting in fag end of the series which got rolled over
too.
FIIs who have been net long in index futures in Feb, started unwinding their positions as crude rallied
significantly due to geopolitical concerns. Their cash segment activity which was fairly muted has now
seen to be aggravated on the selling front due to above concern.
Implied volatility though at 26.16% for Nifty, under current scenario of macro concerns and pre-budget
period seems to be at moderate levels. In calls 5500 strike indicates ceiling for the market for time
being
Banking and Financials
 Most of the Mid-cap stocks like ANDHRABANK
(76.86%), FEDERALBNK (86.07%), IDBI (84.73%)
and YESBANK (78.76%) have witnessed significant
unwinding in open interest though rollover is
almost same in percentage terms.
 Stocks like HDFC (74.31%), ICICIBANK (71.06%),
and SBIN (74.49%) added significant short
positions. Manly shorts have been rolled over.
Avoid bottom fishing in them.
 CANBANK (69.46%) and KOTAKBANK (73.37%)
witnessed significant build up and have support
around 530-535 and 355-360 levels respectively.
Traders can use buy on dips strategy in them.
Oil and Gas

 RELIANCE (78.69%) has been the outperformer in
last series and has remained in broader range.
Stock has seen major short covering due to positive
news flows. We suggest buy on dip strategy here.
 ONGC (74.82%) has added substantial open
interest and there has not been a significant fall.
Ahead of FPO, counter may not have meaningful
downside below 250-260 zone; good level to go
long.
 In OMCs all three majors IOC (86.92%),
HINDPETRO (83.30%) and BPCL (75.64%) have
seen sharp fall and in fag end of series fresh
shorting was visible in them


Metal & Mining
 NATIONALUM (44.77%) is the only stock in green
in this space and has rolled over very less
positions. Initial open interest is very less due to
this. 440-450 is strong resistance zone for the
counter.
 JSWSTEEL (84.95%) has seen strong rollovers and
its open interest too has surged. We believe its
more of short positions formed around 900 levels
in beginning of Feb series which got rolled over.
 Though rollover percentage is quite high in
TATASTEEL (81.38%), it has reduced its open
interest in big way. In last 5 months stock has
obliged to its strong support zone of 580-590.


Auto and Auto Ancillary
 Large-caps in this space like HEROHONDA
(79.11), M&M (64.12%) and MARUTI (74.02%) are
showing less rollover in percentage though
absolute OI has increased. MARUTI has blend of
long and shorts. It may find support around 1080-
1100 levels.
 Despite good result TATAMOTORS (72.35%) is the
underperformer. Rollover is less both in terms of
open interest and percentage. Stock may correct
further.
 Few mid-caps ASHOKLEY (76.69%), EXIDEIND
(62.04%) and TVSMOTOR (79.70%) witnessed less
rollover both ways.


Information Technology
 Unlike last series TCS (76.75%) has added

substantial open interest this time but has been
underperformer in large cap stocks, which was on
expected lines.
 Barring last two trading sessions, activity in
INFOSYSTCH (76.84%) was quite muted. Keep eye
on 2950 level which is good support for the
counter.
 FINANTECH (84.78%) rallied in Feb due to short
covering. We expect fresh shorting in initial part of
March series in it.

Capital Goods
 Capital goods major LT (70.02%) and BHEL
(73.11%) have seen less rollover in percentage
terms, while absolute open interest is almost same.
Both these stocks have blend of long and shorts.
Stocks may witness further downside.
 Mid-caps like BGRENERGY (82.70%) and VOLTAS
(79.30) are showing good amount of rollover in
both in percentage and absolute open interest,
which are mainly short positions.
 PRAJIND (81.41%) has witnessed unwinding in
open interest and rollover is also less. Though the
stock is trading at support, we expect further
correction.

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