Microstrategy E vs P -Here there be monsters…and treasure :Macquarie Research,

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Microstrategy E vs P
Here there be monsters…and treasure
Reporting season prompts mixed earnings revisions
 Results meeting expectations: Approximately 40% of companies in the
MSCI Asia ex-Japan index have reported results so far. At an aggregate level,
December is shaping up in line with expectations – 23% of companies have
beaten analyst expectations by more than 5%, while 26% have missed.

 Korea driving top line up, India driving margins down: While results have
generally met expectations, they have prompted analysts to revisit their
expectations for 2011. Using the Trend Analyser (see below), we have broken
down the changes to consensus expectations. The growing red bars for FY2
(2011) show that positive revisions to top line growth at a regional level have
driven net earnings upgrades. Key to this has been Korea, where over the last
month there have been strong top-line and margin upgrades, offsetting
downgrades to margin expectations for Indian companies.
 Strong results so far in Thailand & Taiwan: While Korean full year results
and Indian third quarter results have dominated reported results so far, in the
markets where reporting season is not as far along, Thailand has started out
the strongest. Approximately 50% of the MSCI Thailand constituents have
reported so far and 36% have beat analyst estimates, encouraging upgrades
to forward estimates, with almost 100% of companies that have reported so far
seeing analysts lift EPS estimates. Taiwan is also strong out of the starting
gate, with 24% of companies beating analyst expectations, and upgrades to
forward expectations for 60% of companies that have reported so far.
Where are the surprises hiding?
 As we approach the halfway point through reporting season, we have trawled
through the consensus estimates to consider what surprises might be left in
store. We have identified stocks likely to surprise consensus estimates based
on two criteria. First, they must have a wide range of earnings estimates and
second, have recently seen relatively high levels of revision activity.
Companies identified as likely to surprise, and where the Macquarie analyst is
expecting a significantly higher result than consensus include: Great Wall
Motor (2333-HK), Adaro Energy (ADRO-ID), Orient Overseas (316-HK).
Those where the Macquarie analyst is expecting results below consensus
include Realtek Semi (2379-TW) and Astra Agro Lestari (AALI-ID).