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Asean Macro Weekly
A week of insights ahead
ƒ Asean’s macro economic releases in the coming week should provide insight
into the momentum a number of Asean economies are carrying into 2011.
ƒ Indonesia will release its 4Q10 and 2010 full-year GDP growth data on
Monday. A strong external trade performance in the quarter hints at a pick-up
in non-oil & gas exports. At the same time, indications from recent import
data, as well as the uptick in global hard commodity prices would suggest
investment remains supportive. The rise in rice and chilli prices, however, may
have dented non-food consumption in 4Q10, resulting in some moderation in
consumer spending growth despite a favourable base effect. The continued
withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures, combined with a high statistical base,
would also hint government spending again dragged on the headline reading.
The important takeaway from this data, however, will be the indication of
domestic demand momentum it provides, especially for private consumption,
in light of rising food prices.
ƒ Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will release a monetary policy statement on
Thursday. Guidance from numerous members of the policy board as well as
the favourable statistical base that resulted from El Nino in 1H10 lead us to
believe interest rates will remain unchanged at this meeting. Additionally, our
recent discussion with BSP officials reinforced our view that they believe
demand-pull inflation pressures remain relatively muted at this time, which
should enable the central bank to leave rates unchanged until 3Q11.
However, given gains in global commodity prices, upside risk to our 2011
average headline CPI inflation forecast of 4.0% YoY persists.
ƒ Malaysia will release December industrial output data on Thursday also. This
is the last high frequency data point for December before 4Q10 GDP data is
released at the month’s end. Although a less favourable base suggests further
moderation in the YoY reading, the unexpected upturn in December export
data also hints at a potentially strong sequential gain. Such an outcome
should prove supportive of GDP growth via a sequential gain in manufacturing
output for the quarter, which may also bolster consumer spending through
employment gains.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Asean Macro Weekly
A week of insights ahead
ƒ Asean’s macro economic releases in the coming week should provide insight
into the momentum a number of Asean economies are carrying into 2011.
ƒ Indonesia will release its 4Q10 and 2010 full-year GDP growth data on
Monday. A strong external trade performance in the quarter hints at a pick-up
in non-oil & gas exports. At the same time, indications from recent import
data, as well as the uptick in global hard commodity prices would suggest
investment remains supportive. The rise in rice and chilli prices, however, may
have dented non-food consumption in 4Q10, resulting in some moderation in
consumer spending growth despite a favourable base effect. The continued
withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures, combined with a high statistical base,
would also hint government spending again dragged on the headline reading.
The important takeaway from this data, however, will be the indication of
domestic demand momentum it provides, especially for private consumption,
in light of rising food prices.
ƒ Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will release a monetary policy statement on
Thursday. Guidance from numerous members of the policy board as well as
the favourable statistical base that resulted from El Nino in 1H10 lead us to
believe interest rates will remain unchanged at this meeting. Additionally, our
recent discussion with BSP officials reinforced our view that they believe
demand-pull inflation pressures remain relatively muted at this time, which
should enable the central bank to leave rates unchanged until 3Q11.
However, given gains in global commodity prices, upside risk to our 2011
average headline CPI inflation forecast of 4.0% YoY persists.
ƒ Malaysia will release December industrial output data on Thursday also. This
is the last high frequency data point for December before 4Q10 GDP data is
released at the month’s end. Although a less favourable base suggests further
moderation in the YoY reading, the unexpected upturn in December export
data also hints at a potentially strong sequential gain. Such an outcome
should prove supportive of GDP growth via a sequential gain in manufacturing
output for the quarter, which may also bolster consumer spending through
employment gains.
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