09 February 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 9 Feb 11

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty plunged in yesterday’s session, breaking below the 5350 crucial support, and even closing lower. Monday’s ‘harami’ candlestick pattern has been violated and will lead to further declines for the index. Momentum oscillators continue to point lower despite being in oversold territory suggestive of the bear grip that the market is in. Market breadth dropped sharply in favour of the declines and the Nifty 50 stocks A/D turned for the worse at 1:6. Since the 5350 supoprt has been violated on a closding basis, expect the Nifty to drop down to the 5200 mark, and from a medium term perspective we expect it to retrace the 2009-10 upmove upto 38.2% at 4780.
§  Once again all the sectoral indices ended in the red as the selling has been widespread. Consumer Durables, Realty and Auto shares took the biggest knock, whereas IT and FMCG weathered the storm. CNXBANK has broken the 10370 support and likely to move down to 9800 initially and 9500 (38.2% retracement) thereafter. 

Bullish Setups: Fortis Healthcare (FORH), Hindalco (HNDL), TCS, 

Bearish Setups: Bank Nifty (CNXBANK), Mahindra & Mahindra (MM), DLF (DLFU), Kotak Bank (KMB)
§  US and European equity indices are stretching the gains of the previous week. SPX is headed towards the 1330 resistance mark, and the FTSE probes the yearly high of 6090. DXY made a‘hammer’ candlestick pattern on the weekly chart last week nailing a trading bottom at 77, targeting the 50-DEMA at 79.15. LME index (LMEX) is scorching towards the 2007 high of 4556. Gold has rallied strongly above $1260, indicating bullish reversal.

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