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Bank of India Q3FY11 result estimates
The Bank is expected to report moderate growth in NII led by 21%yoy growth in advances and 11bps contraction in NIM’s. The pressure on asset quality is likely to alleviate with significant recoveries and up gradation expected during the quarter (Rs7.3bn). Key things to watch for - Provision for Pension liability.
Corporation Bank Q3FY11 result estimates
The NII is likely to grow by 21.7% led by strong growth in advances (30%yoy) and stable NIM’s. However operating profit likely to be relatively lower as the bank has not yet started providing for pension liabilities, hence higher provision for the same during the quarter. Key things to watch for – Provision cover (64%- Q2FY11) and slippages.
Punjab National Bank Q3FY11 result
We expect PNB’s NII to grow by 36.3%yoy driven by a 29%yoy growth in advances and stable NIM’s. Key thing to watch out 1) Slippages, as the bank’s exposure to MFI/ Real Estate/ Telecom is on the higher side (11% of advances) as compared to its peers. 2) Ascertainment of Pension liabilities (Though the bank already provides Rs1.25bn/quarter)
State Bank of India (SBI) Q3FY11 result estimates
The bank’s NII to grow by 29.3% led by 18% growth in advances and stable NIM’s at 2.9%. Though NII would continue to benefit from the base effect, few things to hurt during the quarter namely (1) pension costs based on the new wage agreement (2) provisions on teaser rate loans (Rs4bn) (3) need to improve provision cover to 70% and (4) high duration of AFS portfolio at 3.5 years.
Chambal Fertilisers Q3FY11 Results Expectation : Net Sales Rs 11.6 bn, PAT Rs 898 mn
Chambal Fertilisers is expected to report their Q3FY11 results on Saturday i.e. January 22nd, 2010.
We expect revenue growth to remain flat at Rs 11.6 bn. Fertiliser segment revenues are expected to grow at 10% yoy to Rs 6.6 bn. Trading revenues are likely to remain weak (-14% yoy) at Rs 3.5 bn while revenues from shipping (+16% yoy) and textiles (+3% yoy) segments are likely to remain stable. We estimate EBIT margins of 17%, 4% and 24% in fertilisers, trading and shipping respectively. We expect overall EBITDA margins to expand by 240 bps yoy to 18.9% on account of lower trading while aggregate EBITDA is estimated to grow by 15% yoy to Rs 2.2 bn. With higher interest cost (+21% yoy) we estimate APAT to increase by 13% yoy to Rs 898 mn resulting in AEPS of Rs 2.2.
BHEL Q3FY11E result estimates
Expect BHEL to continue to report strong performance on back of robust order backlog.
n Expect revenues to increase by 21% yoy to Rs86.1 bn
n Expect EBITDA growth at 16% yoy to Rs16.6 bn – attributed to 90 bps yoy decline in EBITDA margins to 19.3%
n Led by strong revenue growth and high other income (up 38% yoy to Rs4.5 bn), expect robust APAT growth at 22% yoy to Rs13.1 bn.
Given the subdued order inflows in Q3FY11E, we will watch out for management reiteration of order inflow guidance for FY11E.
Greaves Cotton Q2FY11E result estimates - (June Ending Company)
Expect Q2FY11E operational performance to be impacted by extremely high margins in Q2FY10
n Expect healthy revenue growth at 21% yoy to Rs4.1 bn – led by both Engines (up 20% yoy to Rs3.5 bn) and Infrastructure (up 26% yoy to Rs447 mn)
n Despite healthy revenue growth, expect EBITDA growth to be lower at 14% yoy to Rs664 mn – led by 100 bps yoy decline in margins to 16%
n Expect APAT growth at 20% yoy to Rs394 mn.
We will closely watch traction in Infrastructure Division and ramp-up with Tata Motors.
Piramal Glass - Q3FY11 Nos Ahead Of Estimates- Prima Facie, FY11E earnings to upgrade by 14%
n Revenue growth 10.7% yoy to Rs3.2 bn, meets our expectations
n Ebidta growth at 24.9% yoy to Rs780 mn, ahead of expectation
n Ebidta margins expand 280 bps yoy to 24.6% - ahead of expectation
n APAT doubles to Rs204 mn- ahead of expectation
n Piramal has surpassed expected exit margins of 24% in Q3FY11- which is comforting for FY12E
n Q3FY11 saw gains from operating leverage and improving product mix
n Prima facie, there should be upgrade to FY11E estimates - 5% upgrade in Ebidta and 14% upgrade in APAT
n FY11E earnings would be upgraded from Rs9.1/Share to Rs10/Share, We would retain the FY12E earnings
n We have BUY rating with price target of Rs160/Share
Torrent Pharma Q3FY11 Result Update; In-line Results; Maintain Buy; Target: Rs 650
n Revenue growth in-line with our estimates on account of 17% increase in domestic formulations and 19% growth in the international business
n EBITDA margins declined by 286bps YoY (as estimated) on account of 140bps contraction in gross margins, higher employee cost and other expenses
n PBT in line with estimates. Higher than expected rise in interest cost and higher tax provisioning impacted PAT (Rs769mn vs. est. of Rs823mn)
n Maintain earnings and Buy rating with a target price of Rs650
Kajaria Ceramics Q3FY11 Result Update; Results ahead of estimates; Buy; Target: Rs 100
n Results ahead of estimates with 41% increase in revenues to Rs 2.5 bn and 113% PAT growth to Rs 176 mn
n Strong demand supported higher trading since purchase of traded goods (% of sales) increased from 37% to 41%
n Entered into MOU with Turkey based company –Eczasibasi, for exclusive distribution of its products for 5 years
n Upgrade FY11E estimates by 8% to Rs 8.1 on strong Q3FY11 results, maintain FY12E estimates at Rs 10, maintain BUY
South Indian Bank Q3FY11 Result Update; Strong results; upgrade to BUY; Target: Rs 30
n SIB’s Q3FY11 net profit at Rs753mn was better than consensus estimates (in line with ours) driven by strong 38.3%yoy growth in NII
n The NII growth was led by a strong 6.4%qoq growth in advances and stable NIMs. Some part of the growth was back ended during the quarter
n The asset quality remained stable with GNPA at 1.3% and NNPA at 0.4%. Provision cover stood strong at 71%.
n We remain extremely positive with strong RoEs + robust Tier I + clean asset quality. Recent correction provides good entry point. Upgrade to BUY. High gold loan portfolio a key risk
Yes Bank Q3FY11 Result Update; Slower growth restricts NIMs contraction; Accumulate; Target: Rs 300
n Yes Bank’s Q3FY11 results were inline with expectations with NII at Rs3.2bn and PAT at Rs1.9bn
n Lower than expected 20bps contraction in NIMs was a positive surprise. As the asset repricing will continue for next two quarters, pressure on NIMs will be minimal
n Yes Bank consciously decelerated loan book growth to 2.6% qoq due to volatile rates. Asset quality maintained at 0.2% gross and 0.1% net NPAs
n Valuations attractive at 2.5x FY11E/2.0x FY12E ABV. Upgrade to ACCUMULATE as the recent correction in the stock price leaves 10% upside to our target price of Rs300
LIC Housing Finance Company Update; Valuations comfortable; upgrade to BUY; Target: Rs 210
n Recent increases in the lending rates to take care of NIMs atleast for next two quarters. We are already building in 20bps pressure in spreads/NIMs next year
n Developers’ loan portfolio only on pause now, to start disbursing fresh loans from Q4FY11 onwards. The proportion of developers’ loan to remain steady at 11% of total
n Developers’ loans portfolio NPAs are minimal. The loans under investigation at Rs3.9bn which are all performing assets
n Valuations at 1.7x/1.4x FY11E/FY12E ABV – valuations attractive looking at 22% avg RoEs despite higher provisions and building lower NIMs. Upgrade to BUY with TP of Rs210
Bajaj Auto Q3FY11 Result Update; Superlative performance, Attractive valuations; Buy; Target: Rs 1,650
n Results above est. driven by higher sales at Rs 41.8bn (est- 39.2bn) and lower tax rate at 27.3% (est-28.6%). Margins were 20.3% (est-19.8%). PAT was Rs 6.7bn (est-Rs 5.6bn)
n Addition of ~130 new dealers in rural and tier II/III cites and launch of new Discover in April 2011 to provide volume momentum. Expect 3-wheelers demand to remains strong
n Lower our FY12 volume by 3% to 4.5mn units (18% growth) and EPS est by 3.1% to Rs 106.8. Valuations attractive at 12.1x PER and 8.4x EV/EBIDTA our FY12 est.
n Upgrade to BUY from ACCUM post the price correction. Stock offers FCF yield/div. yield of 7% (FY12E)/3%(FY11E). Key risks - sharp jump in metal price/demand slowdown
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