Real Estate: 3QFY11 Results Preview: Antique

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DLF
􀂄 Key launch of Alameda plots in Sector 73 of Gurgaon during the quarter is expected to
help boost EBITDA margins QoQ.
􀂄 Forthcoming launches include Horizon Centre in Phase V Gurgaon and plots in Indore.
􀂄 We believe it will be difficult for the company to achieve its target of >12m sq ft of
residential sales in FY11.

Unitech
􀂄 In 2QFY11, Unitech’s revenues dipped since heavy rains and labour shortage due to
commonwealth games resulted a slowdown in construction in NCR. With recovery in
construction activity from Nov 2010, we expect a 19% QoQ increase in revenues for
3QFY11.
􀂄 EBITDA margins are expected to be in the mid thirties, a substantial improvement YoY on
account of higher proportion of revenue recognition from projects launched since Mar
2009.
HDIL
􀂄 We estimate 3QFY11 TDR volumes and prices to be stable and overall revenues and net
profit to be relatively flat QoQ. That said HDIL has entered into an MOU for sale of FSI
worth ~INR6.5bn at its Goregaon Siddharth Nagar project. If this transaction is recognised
in the books, revenues could be higher than estimated.
􀂄 In Dec 2010, HDIL launched its township project at Palghar. The project has 20,000
apartments in total, of which 5,000 apartments were launched in the first phase on Dec
10, and were sold out in less than two weeks. The second phase of 3,000 units was
launched on Dec 24. The project offers apartments in sizes ranging from 340 to 930 sq
ft which are priced between INR0.6-1.26m.
Phoenix Mills
􀂄 We expect revenues to rise 7% QoQ due to better occupancy in High Street Phoenix.
Strong YoY increase in revenues and net profit is on account of higher income contribution
from Palladium.
􀂄 The Pune market city project is in advanced stages of completion.
Sobha Developers
􀂄 We expect 3QFY11 revenues to decline 12% QoQ since we do not anticipate any revenue
recognition from sale of land in the current quarter. Excluding land sale however, revenues
are expected to see a healthy 20% increase QoQ with land portion of recently launched
projects such as Dewflower and Classic being recognised.
􀂄 Sales momentum continues to be strong with the launch of new projects: Forest View in
Bangalore and Ivory in Pune. Average realisations are also trending up due to favourable
product mix given that most new launches have been in the luxury/super luxury segment.
􀂄 Several projects including Althea, Chrysanthemum and Ruby have been completed during
the quarter and process of handing over possession of apartments has begun.
DB Realty
􀂄 TDRs from Mahul Nagar project will continue contributing the largest share of revenues in
3QFY11. Also, Orchid Woods in Goregaon East is expected to contribute substantially to
revenues since the project is in advanced stages of completion.
Indiabulls Real Estate
􀂄 We expect revenue recognition from Panvel project to be lower on a QoQ basis since the
revenue recognition threshold for this project was crossed in 2QFY11 and a substantial
percentage of revenue was recognised in the previous quarter.
􀂄 Area of office spaced leased in Jupiter and Elphinstone Mills is expected to expand.