20 January 2011

Container Corporation of India: Positive surprise from Exim segment:: ICICI Sec

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Container Corporation of India

Positive surprise from Exim segment…
Container Corporation’s (Concor) Q3FY11 numbers were better than
our estimates on the back of better-than-expected Exim volumes. Exim
volumes registered healthy growth of 14.3% YoY. However, the
performance of the domestic segment was muted as it reported only a
marginal growth of 1.7% YoY. The company recorded net sales of |
971.13 crore, growth of 9.8% YoY and 2.9% QoQ in Q3FY11. The
EBITDA margin for Q3FY11 has increased by 10 bps YoY and 120 bps
QoQ to 28.9%, primarily on the back of a reduction in empty running.
Net profit increased by 13.9% YoY to | 228.48 crore.

Highlights for the quarter
􀂃 Exim route volumes increased 14.3% YoY to 5,17,461 TEUs in
Q3FY11. However, realisations in the Exim route declined 0.8% YoY
to | 14,717.9 per TEU. Revenues from the Exim segment increased
13.4% YoY to | 761.60 crore
􀂃 Domestic route volumes increased 1.7% YoY to 1,45,384 TEUs in
Q3FY11. Realisations in the domestic route declined 3.1% YoY to |
14,412.7 per TEU. Revenues from the domestic segment decreased
by 1.5% YoY to | 209.54 crore

Valuation
During Q3FY11, the Exim segment gave a positive surprise on the
volume front. Going forward also, we expect the Exim segment to be a
significant contributor to overall volume growth. Domestic volumes
would be muted due to commodity specific rate hikes. For FY12, we
expect Exim container volumes of ~2.3 million TEUs and domestic
container volumes of 0.6 million TEUs. We have an ADD rating on the
stock with a target price of | 1292. Our target price discounts FY11E and
FY12E EPS by 19.5x and 17.5x, respectively


Valuation
During Q3FY11, the Exim segment gave a positive surprise on the
volume front. Going forward also, we expect the Exim segment to be a
significant contributor to the overall volume growth. Domestic volumes
would be muted due to commodity specific rate hikes. For FY12, we
expect Exim volumes of ~ 2.3 million TEUs and domestic volumes of 0.6
million TEUs for FY12. We have an ADD rating on the stock with a target
price of | 1292. Our target price discounts FY11E and FY12E EPS by
19.5x and 17.5x, respectively.

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