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Broking
ƒ Contribution of cash segment plunges further to 14%...
Though the overall daily turnover (ADT) is on a steady rise for the
past three to four quarters, contribution of the cash segment is
consistently sloping down. This segment contributed 20% in
Q4FY10. It stabilised at 16% in the subsequent two quarters and is
now down to the historic low of 14% for Q3FY11. In the trailing one
year futures segment, ADT grew a staggering 230% to | 42810 crore
in Q3FY11 from | 18641 in Q4FY10, contributing 29% to the total
market turnover. This indicates that despite the steep correction in
the midcap space, risk appetite is still high. Options segment forms
remaining 57% to total turnover for Q3FY11.
ƒ …A drop in yields expected
Such a fall in cash volumes would pressurise yields that were
witnessed in the past few quarters. Although the yields stabilised in
Q2FY11, a further drop is not ruled out considering a distant shift in
market dynamics.
ƒ Unparalleled loan book growth comes to halt
We see little moderation in loan growth due to increased volatility
during the quarter pressurising margin calls on the LAS portfolio.
Thus, interest income, which was driving topline growth, would take
a back seat in Q3FY11.
From our coverage universe we see a flat performance in topline,
bottomline growth although revenues are seen up 26% YoY.
Edelweiss Capital We see a drop in blended market share (including erstwhile Anagram) QoQ due to
a drop in treasury volumes. IB fees will support topline growth while little
moderation in the loan book will push back interest income lower. Yields are seen
at 4.4 bps. Overall a flattish quarter
India Infoline The extravagant growth in the loan book is expected to pause in this quarter and
is seen at | 2400 crore. Broking revenues will drive topline growth since we
expect market share to be stable at 3.9%
Motilal Oswal We expect a subdued performance from IB and AMC fees, albeit growth in
broking revenues will offset this. EBIDTA margins are seen at 34% for Q3FY11
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