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IRS 3Q2010 sector report
According to the IRS 3Q2010 report, the top-10 order in print media remained
unchanged. Dainik Jagran is maintaining its lead amongst the print dailies albeit on
flattish growth rate, Dainik Bhaskar (AIR of 13.5mn) is growing smartly at 7% ror and
Hindustan (AIR of 10.8mn) is closing in the leadership gap at the No.3 position. With the
exception of Daily Thanthi, all other dailies registered growth during the quarter under
review.
Out of the top-10 English dailies, 4 showed positive growth in AIR figures, with the Times
of India (TOI) retaining its leadership with an AIR of 7.3mn. Hindustan Times registered
AIR of 3.5mn, an increase of ~2% ror over 2Q survey, and retained its second position.
The Hindu followed next with an AIR of 2.1mn (down 3.7% ror over 2Q survey). DNA and
The Economic Times (ET) interchanged places in this survey over the last one - ET turned in
an impressive show registering 6% ror growth in AIR.
We remain positive on the Indian print sector. We expect advertisement revenues to
register a CAGR of 11% over FY2010-13. The vernacular print space is expected to
record 14% CAGR in advertisement revenues over the mentioned period, driven by higher
ad spend in tier II/III towns on account of increased per capita income. However,
increasing competitive intensity and newsprint prices (the highest cost to print companies)
will act as headwinds and restrict profitability of the print companies in the near term. We
prefer stocks having high readership (ensures high advertising revenue) and diverse
geographical presence. We continue to like Jagran Prakashan for consistently
maintaining its leadership position in terms of AIR over the past several IRS surveys.
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