06 November 2010

CESC - strong performance; Buy:Edelweiss

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􀂃 Q2FY11 PAT ahead of estimates
CESC reported PAT of INR 1.55 bn in Q2FY11 vis-à-vis INR 1.26 bn in Q2FY10
(our estimate INR 1.18 bn), higher on account of tariff hike of Q1FY11 taken in
the current quarter. The company recognises revenues based on actual instead
of the regulated tariff which is based on estimates. Hence, depending on the
extent of approved capex and opex by the regulator in the tariff, earnings are
lumpy during different periods. The tariff approval received in late July 2010
enabled CESC to increase tariff (including arrears) by an average of INR
0.17/unit with retrospective effect from April 01, 2010. We estimate earnings to
the extent of ~INR 200 mn, pertaining to Q1FY11, was booked in Q2FY11.


􀂃 Operational highlights & updates
• The blended PLF of 1,225 MW of operational capacities was 82.5%, while
excluding New Cossipore unit and adjusting for steady state operations at
Budge Budge, PLF is at 98.2% versus 99.2%.
• CESC achieved financial closure for 600 MW plant at Haldia, targeting COD
in FY14.
• The allotment of Patna and Muzaffarpur distribution circles is still in process.

􀂃 Inked coal supply agreement with Australian firm
ICML, CESC’s affiliate company, has inked an offshore coal procurement contract
with Resource Generation, to purchase 37 mn tonne (MT) coal over 20 years.
The company has invested USD 10 mn to part finance this development of the
mine which is expected to be operational by FY14-15.

􀂃 Spencers Retail reports store level profits
Spencers Retail’s (Spencers) financial performance has been steadily increasing,
reporting a positive store EBITDA/sq ft in June. Revenues/sq ft have improved
~50% Y-o-Y to INR 1,100. Current losses have a run rate of INR 130 mn/month
compared to ~ INR 180 mn/month in Q2FY10.

􀂃 Outlook and valuations: Added Haldia to SOTP; maintain ‘BUY’
Post the financial closure of Haldia, we have added ~INR 33, leading to our
revised SOTP of INR 498/share. There is possibility of further accretion to
valuation from distribution business and improving performance at Spencers. We
maintain ‘BUY’ on the stock and rate it ‘Sector Outperformer’ on relative
return basis

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