23 October 2010

Tata Consultancy Services: Hold: Strong Q2 Results; Business Momentum Continues: Citi

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Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.BO)
Hold: Strong Q2 Results; Business Momentum Continues
 Very strong quarter — TCS delivered a very strong quarter with revenues of $2bn
(+11.7% qoq, our exp: $1.93bn). International revenues witnessed grew ~10%
qoq while India business demonstrated ~27% qoq growth. Growth was broadbased
– most verticals, horizontals and geographies delivered strong growth.
 Margin improvement surprised — EBIT margins improved ~86bps qoq, coming on
the back of a very strong margin performance in Q1. Currency, Productivity and
SG&A leverage (partly helped by writeback of provision for doubtful debts) more
than offset the negative impact due to promotions and higher variable wages.
 Short term outlook positive; Pricing flat — TCS management indicated that short
term outlook was positive with a robust pipeline and 8 large deals won in the
quarter. The net hiring of ~11k employees also supports the same. However,
management cautioned on the macro, which still remains uncertain. Pricing was
flat – management indicated that pricing will depend on next year’s IT budgets.
 Comments on CY11 IT budgets — TCS management indicated that they could
comment on IT budgets next quarter but initial discussion with some customers
do suggest increase in next year’s IT spending plans.
 Earnings upgrade cycle likely to continue — TCS has delivered ~50% of FY11E
consensus EPS in 1H. With good sequential growth ahead, consensus is likely to
be revised up (despite currency headwinds). TCS continues to lead the large caps
on EPS upgrades.
 Stock likely strong in near term; Outperformance/valuation prices upsides partly —
The big beat suggests that consensus (including us) underestimated the business
momentum – this could continue to support stock performance. However, the
stock has already outperformed the BSEIT index by 14/19% over the last 3/12
months – which partly prices in the upgrades.

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