Orient Paper, Q2FY11 Preview centrum,

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Orient Paper (Rating – Buy; Target Price – Rs86)
􀂁 We expect 1% YoY de-growth in sales in Q2FY11 to Rs3,495mn. We estimate EBIDTA to de-grow
35.9% YoY to Rs435mn and PAT to de-grow 65.3% YoY to Rs142mn.
􀂁 We estimate 2% YoY de-growth in cement revenue to Rs1,888mn due to the 22.4% YoY fall in
realization to Rs2,383/tonne and 28% YoY volume growth to 0.807 mt.
􀂁 We have assumed paper revenue to at Rs450mn (25% YoY decline but up 100% QoQ) and 15%
YoY growth in the electrical division’s revenue to Rs1,156mn.
􀂁 We expect the EBIDTA margin to contract 7pp YoY and 3.28pp QoQ to 12.9%.