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HT Media: diversified print play
Investment in Mumbai market to pay off; English business
poised to surprise: HT Media’s Mumbai edition, launched in 2005,
garners ad revenues of cRs900m, which is ~10% of that of the leader,
Times of India, while its readership base is at 38% of that of ToI. HT
Mumbai’s readership has increased by 10% in the last six months, and
it has become the second-most popular daily among SEC AB readers.
Sustenance in this traction in readership is likely to result in non-linear
growth in HT Mumbai’s ad revenues, which could easily surprise ad
revenue growth assumptions of FY10-12ii.
Hindi business on a strong footing; Uttar Pradesh offers upsides:
We expect ad revenues of Hindustan to grow 22% in FY11. This is below
the management’s estimate of 25%. Hindustan has maintained its
leadership in its core markets, Bihar and Jharkhand. In UP, where it still
commands only 15% of market leader Jagran’s revenues, Hindustan has
registered a 24% increase in readership in the last six months, despite
having 33% of Jagran’s readership.
Valuations inexpensive; upsides not priced in: The stock is trading
at a PER of 18.7x on FY11ii and 15.1x on FY12ii. This is at a significant
discount to its median PER of 31x over its trading history. Valuations
are attractive in relation to an earnings CAGR of 32% over FY10-12
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