29 September 2010

Emkay: Buy Tata Motors

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Tata Motors Limited
JLR to drive the performance, Maintain ACCUMULATE

ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 1,080                                        Target Price: Rs 1,235


n     Strong demand outlook for FY11/FY12, driven by LCVs. JLR continues to suffer with engine shortage. No major pre buying is visible in M&HCVs. Nano’s order backlog is almost over
n     Domestic business to witness cost pressures. JLR margins are sustainable but for currency fluctuations. Price hike due to emission norms is not yet decided
n     We believe that momentum in M&HCV to peak out, expect concerns for FY12 volumes to set in 3Q/4QFY11. However JLR to more than compensate for downside risk in M&HCVs
n     Upgrading FY11/FY12 EPS estimates by 10%/13% to Rs 110.6/Rs 137.8 due to upgrade in JLR est. Raise our SOTP based TP to Rs 1235 (up by 8%), maintain ACCUMULATE

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