Please Share::
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock NewsVisit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_ConsolidatedResultPreview_Q4FY12E.pdf
Oil and Gas
ƒ Brent crude oil prices increase 8% QoQ to US$118.7/barrel
Despite a weaker global economy, average Brent crude oil prices
remained at a higher level, mainly on account of tensions between the
West and Iran. Average Brent crude oil prices increased 12.6% YoY
from US$ 105.4/bbl in Q4FY11 to US$118.7/bbl in Q4FY12. Overall, for
the quarter, higher average oil prices and rupee depreciation would
increase realisations and profitability of the private exploration and
production (E&P) companies.
ƒ Gross under-recoveries for Q4FY12E at ~| 42,400 crore
A weak rupee, high Brent crude oil prices and limited scope of price
deregulation would increase the estimated gross crude oil underrecoveries from | 31,230 crore in Q4FY11 to | 42,400 crore in Q4FY12E.
We have modelled upstream companies share of subsidy burden at
40.6% in Q4FY12E. We expect downstream companies to receive
| 7,150 crore in Q4FY12E. We estimate upstream and government to
bear subsidy burden of | 17,214 crore (40.6% share) and | 32,330 crore
(76.3% share), respectively in Q4FY12. We expect downstream
companies to receive | 7,150 crore (-16.9% share) in Q4FY12E. Hence,
we believe oil marketing companies (HPCL, BPCL and IOC) to report
profit in the Q4FY12.
ƒ Gross refining margin decline QoQ
Singapore GRMs have declined QoQ from $8/barrel in Q3FY12 to
$7.7/barrel in Q4FY12 mainly on account of a drop in distillate crack
spreads. This is negative for refiners like RIL, Essar Oil, CPCL and MRPL.
ƒ Lower domestic gas volumes to be replaced by higher priced LNG
The decline in gas production from the Reliance KG-D6 basin from ~38
mmscmd in Q3FY12 to ~34 mmscmd in Q4FY12E has led to higher
import of costlier priced LNG from global markets. Hence, large gas
transportation companies would report muted volumes YoY. City gas
distribution (CGD) companies would report lower profitability growth
QoQ on account of a weak rupee and high LNG prices.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Bharat
Petroleum
We expect 33.4% YoY increase in revenues due to increase in retail sales volumes &
higher product prices. We expect refining margins of $4.7/bbl vs. $6.9/bbl YoY. We
expect BPCL to report profit in the current quarter as we have assumed downstream
companies would receive |7150 crore (-16.9% of total under-recoveries). We have
modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at 6% in FY12E
Cairn India Ltd Revenues would increase 10.2% YoY due to higher realisation and volumes. Net oil &
gas production would increase 21.4% YoY to 1,17,018.5 boepd while oil realisation is
expected to increase by 15.4% YoY to $108.7/bbl. We expect gross production from
Rajasthan fields to increase YoY and QoQ to 1,52,000 boepd
Gujarat Gas We expect a 44.1% YoY increase in revenues on account of an increase in prices to
pass on higher LNG cost. Total volumes at 3.46 mmscmd are expected to exhibit a
marginal 2.7% YoY growth. The EBITDA margin at 17.4% would exhibit a 320 bps YoY
decline mainly due to higher LNG costs
GSPL Revenues are expected to witness 3.4% YoY growth on account of higher
transmission tariffs and windmill business. We expect a decline in gas volumes
resulting in 32.1 mmscmd in Q4FY12E against 35.6 mmscmd YoY on lower KG D6
production. Transmission charges are expected to increase 11.4%YoY to | 0.88 per
scm
Hindustan
Petroleum
We expect 26.6% YoY increase in revenues due to increase in retail sales volumes
and higher product prices. We expect refining margins of $6.2/bbl vs. $8.6/bbl YoY.
We expect HPCL to report profit in the current quarter as we have assumed
downstream companies would receive | 7150 crore (-16.9% of total underrecoveries). We have modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at 6% in FY12E
Indian Oil We expect 21.1% YoY increase in revenues due to increase in retail sales volumes &
higher product prices. We expect refining margins of $3.7/bbl vs. $7.9/bbl YoY. We
expect IOCL to report profit in the current quarter as we have assumed downstream
companies would receive | 7150 crore (-16.9% of total under-recoveries). We have
modelled net under-recoveries for OMCs at 6% in FY12E
Indraprastha Gas Revenues would increase 42.1% YoY on account of a 15.4% increase in sales volume
to 3.48 mmscmd and 21.8% increase in gross realisation to | 25.4 per scm. The CNG
price is expected to be at | 34.3 per kg in this quarter compared to | 28.6 in Q4FY11
to pass on higher costs
Oil India Revenues are expected to increase 7.6% YoY mainly due to stronger dollar & marginal
volume growth. We expect oil production of 6.84 mmboe (higher by 1% YoY), subsidy
of $61.6 per bbl (| 2112.7 crore vs. | 1605.4 crore YoY) and net realisation of $51.1
per bbl in Q4FY12E against $52.9 per bbl YoY
ONGC Revenues are expected to increase 9.1% YoY mainly due to a stronger dollar & higher
net realisations. We expect oil production of 48.8 mmboe (lower by 1.6% YoY),
subsidy of $79.7 per bbl (| 14292.4 crore vs. | 12135 crore YoY) and net realisation
of $41.8 per bbl in Q4FY12E against $38.7 per bbl YoY
Petronet LNG We expect 70.6% YoY revenue growth due to higher volumes & realisations. We
expect volumes to increase 10.2% YoY to 123.6 trillion British thermal units (2.4 mmt)
in Q4FY12 on account of higher regasification volumes (22.8 tbtu). PAT is expected to
Shiv Vani Oil We expect revenues to decline by 8% YoY due to reduced visibility on order intake in
the coming quarters. The EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 1260 bps YoY to
38.6% in Q4FY12E
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
No comments:
Post a Comment