PFC OFS Clearing price under retail:261.9 Non retail:254.1 Net price for retail: 248.8

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PFC stake sale floor price at Rs 254; disinvestment on Mon:: MoneyControl

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POWER FINANCE Corp OFS- Floor price Rs 254.00; 5% discount to Retail - July 27,2015 (Monday)

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Sell PFC Ltd & Bank of India -Short term Sector Momentum Stock Pick 09 Dec - HDFC Sec

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Power Finance Corporation (Buy, Target Rs 225) Ø LKP Advisory

Power Finance Corporation (Buy, Target Rs 225)

Ø  PFC is the largest power financier in India with an asset base of Rs120bn has been at the receiving end of policy paralysis in the power generation space as coal shortage along with the deterioration in the financial health of SEB’s put pressure on its asset quality.

Ø  However the recent round of tariff hikes by SEB’s augurs well for PFC since it sanctions funds to state utilities for funding their cash flow mismatches. Implementation of power sector reforms in our view could act as a key trigger for PFC going forward as it is now operating in a declining interest rate environment ( PFC depends on wholesale borrowings to fund asset growth)

Ø  PFC with sustainable ROE of 16% trades at adjusted book on a one-year forward basis and can easily sustain NIM’s of 3.8%. We recommend a BUY on PFC with a 3 month price target of Rs225

TECHNICAL VIEW

Ø  The stock has come out of a more than 1 year of downtrend. The current chart pattern exhibits the formation of a Triangle formation.

Ø  With the stock taking strong support at the rising support trendline, it is on the verge of breaking the upper resistance line.

Ø  Once the stock manages to surpass the minor resistance at 210 levels, technically the breakout would become successful and the stock could continue trending higher.

Thanks and Regards

LKP Advisory

PFC TAX-FREE BONDS: Suitable for high-tax bracket investors :: Business Line

Power Finance Corporation- Increasing FY13F PAT by 16%; reiterate Buy Key beneficiary of a stronger SEB outlook:: Nomura Research

Action: Reiterate Buy; TP unchanged at INR240
We believe the recent financial restructuring plan (FRP) and the spate of
tariff hikes over the past few months have strongly reduced the overhang
on PFC's SEB exposure (71% of its Q1FY13 loan book). As per
management, some of the stressed Discoms have already started
showing improved timeliness in loan repayments. We had earlier
budgeted for restructuring of 8% of PFC's loans to the stressed Discoms,
which we don’t see necessary any longer, although we have factored in
marginal NIM impacts from extending shorter-term transition loans to
some of these Discoms over the next few years. Our earnings estimate for
FY13F and FY14F go up by 16% and 6%, respectively. We expect loan
book growth of 18% and 16% for FY13F and FY14F, respectively.
Expect strong spreads and stable asset quality to sustain ROA
PFC's spreads have improved by 50bps over past six months helped by
asset repricing and we expect it to come down by 15bps to 2.45% by
FY14F. We expect asset quality to hold over FY13-14F, although we are
factoring in incremental provisions on the existing NPLs.
Catalysts: Adoption of FRP by SEBs, tariff hike orders in UP and
other states and developments on the coal linkage front
Valuation
PFC trades at 1.1x our avg FY13-14F ABV and 6.4x our FY13F EPS. At
our TP of INR240, PFC would trade at 1.4x our avg FY13-14F ABV of
INR173 and 7.8x EPS of INR30.8, for FY13F ROA of 2.7% and 19% ROE

Power Finance Corporation / REC ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference

􀂄 Upbeat on state reform action; UP to move on tariffs by Sep‐12: The PFC/REC
management was very upbeat on tariff hikes taken by the states (17 of 27
states) in FY13 including large ones like TN. PFC expects tariff hike to be taken
by UP by mid Sep-12 which will be a big relief. These hikes surely bring some
states close to break even but hikes not being implemented in Agri continue to
increase hike requirements for commercial/personal segments. Of all states,
PFC was extremely positive on prospects of a turnaround of SEBs in MP and
believes MP SEBs could turn profitable in due course.
􀂄 No clarity on FRP; Don't see PFC/REC taking haircut/NPV hits: The restructuring
package (FRP) is still in works and PFC management said there is limited clarity
still on the terms of restructuring (Media sources: 50% debt to be shifted to
state govt. and other 50% to be offered a 3 yr moratorium). PFC/REC have
categorially denied taking any haircut on these loans but transfer of debt to
state governments and getting state government bonds could entail some NPV
loss due to lower yields on state govt. debt in our view.
􀂄 Fresh sanctions to SEBs ‐ Part of restructuring: Both PFC/REC as part of the
ongoing restructuring will provide Rs170bn each to the SEBs for working capital
requirements. PFC/REC who have largely refrained from funding losses of SEBs
will now do so as some burden gets shifted from banks to PFC/REC but
management believes that these loans remain contingent on going reform
performance and guarantees by each state.
􀂄 Regulatory provisioning: (1) Usha Thorat committee had recommened
applicability of standard asset provisioning (0.25%) for PFC/REC and according to
the mgt, they intend to provide this over next 4 yrs (0.05% annually) (2) Also, on
providing for risk weight on undisbursed sanction, PFC/REC have asked RBI for
an exemption upto FY17 and is currently under consideration

Technical: Power finance corp, VIP Industries, Marico, Greaves Cotton, GAIL, HCL::Business Line

Power Finance Corporation - conference call transcript-9-Aug-12: Edel

Please find enclosed the transcript of the conference call with Power Finance Corporation held on 9th August, 2012.

Power Finance Corporation - conference call transcript-9-Aug-12

Regards,

BHEL, Power Finance Corp, Rural Electrification, Container Corporation, reports by Kotak Sec PDF links

Research reports- Tata Power, PFC, NALCO :Kotak Sec PDF link

Power Finance Corporation BUY On higher ground : ICICI Securities

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We initiate coverage on Power Finance Corporation (PFC) with a BUY rating and
target price of Rs222/share (1.3x FY13E ABV). This is a play on incremental
improvements in the power sector that would lead to a valuation re-rating. PFC’s
lending profile is less risky compared to REC’s on account of the former’s lower
exposure to discoms. While partial restructuring at some SEBs remains a
possibility, a key risk emanates from its exposure to private power developers,
which currently comprises 9.8% of loans and where ‘bailout’ has low probability.
Despite factoring-in moderate loan growth, flat-to-declining spreads and higher
loan-loss provisions, PFC’s RoA and RoE is expected to remain healthy at 2.7%
and 18% respectively over FY12-14E. Initiate with a BUY rating. Slower than
expected pace of reforms leading to large-scale default and inability on part of
private power players to acquire fuel linkages remain the key risks.
􀁦 Sanction pipeline will fructify into healthy loan growth. We expect strong
investments in generation space over the 12th five year plan to benefit PFC’s loan
growth. A strong sanctions pipeline of Rs1.82tn with Rs864bn from projects where
disbursements have commenced and documentation is complete will spur
disbursements and drive loan book growth of 19% CAGR over FY12-14E.
􀁦 Spreads to stabilise at current levels as borrowing costs decline. On a YoY
basis, spreads compressed 58bps to 2.15% in Q3FY12 as incremental borrowing
costs remain high at ~9%. We expect spreads to recover to 2.5% by FY14E as
declining interest rate environment lowers borrowing cost and cushions the impact
of declining yields and ECB funding increases.
􀁦 Asset quality concerns more on private sector exposure. As recommended by
VK Shunglu committee report, we believe that SEB restructuring would involve a
hair-cut only on the interest rate. As such, we compress yields by ~30bps over
FY12-14E. Also, we shall remain watchful of the private sector exposure, as
delinquencies here could result in substantial downside risk.
􀁦 Risk-reward attractive; BUY for re-rating. The stock has underperformed the Nifty
and Bankex by 22% and 18% YoY and is 52% below its lifetime high. However,
recent government actions and tariff hikes highlight the fact that improvements will
likely follow. The stock should hence re-rate. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating
and a target price of Rs222/share (1.3x FY13E ABV).

Infrastructure Finance Companies In fear lies opportunity : ICICI Securities

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Power Finance Corporation (PFC) and Rural Electrification Corporation (REC)
have underperformed the NIFTY by 22% and 12% YoY respectively. However,
fears that had sent valuations crashing to 0.8x (for PFC) and 0.9x (for REC) 12-
month forward ABV still persist. Tariff hikes precipitated by financiers’
aggression and positive steps taken inter alia by APTEL and the PMO signify
remedial processes are underway to resolve the crisis. In our view, given that the
various stakeholders (government, CIL, APTEL, lenders, etc.) have much to lose
by allowing PFC and REC to fail, it is unlikely that their exposure to SEBs will
deteriorate into NPAs. Note that in case of a net worth impairment in either PFC
or REC: i) the government will anyhow have to recapitalise them because they are
state-owned lenders, and ii) failing to recapitalise will undermine the
government’s creditworthiness. Exposure to private sector projects may not
receive the same favours though. However, both PFC and REC have low private
sector exposure, which restricts asset risks. We therefore expect both PFC and
REC to trade at ~1.3x FY13E ABV (a discount to its 5-year average ABV multiple
of ~1.6x) with RoAs of 2.7 / 3.1% and RoEs of 18 / 21% respectively. We initiate
coverage on PFC (BUY) and REC (ADD) and prefer PFC for its lower risk profile.
􀁦 Asset risks only in pockets, not across exposures. We believe PFC and REC’s
asset risks lie predominantly in their IPP exposures, concentrated in the underconstruction
generation projects. Most of these IPP projects are currently facing
delays due to lack of environmental clearance, FSAs and PPAs. One could foresee
restructuring/slippage in these projects. While risk of SEB default is quite low, the
possibility of restructuring loans to them exists; hence we also differentiate between
PFC and REC based on their SEB exposures. Of the exposure to SEBs, PFC has
~85% of it to states with unbundled SEBs and 49% to states with the top-9 lossmaking
SEBs. Its asset book is relatively less risky than that of REC where the
corresponding numbers are 71% and 60%.
􀁦 Outstanding sanctions will help sustain business/earnings momentum.
Outstanding sanctions will lead to a healthy disbursement momentum of 18-20%
YoY, leading to a loan CAGR of 19% over FY12-FY14E for PFC and 18% for REC.
This coupled with average spreads of 2.4% and 3.3% for PFC and REC
respectively, is likely to result in healthy RoAs of 2.7% / 3.1% and an earnings
CAGR of 20% / 18% for PFC / REC respectively over FY12-14E.
􀁦 As reforms take shape, multiples will approach ~1.3x FY13E ABV. PFC and
REC stock prices have corrected from peak valuations of 2.6x and 2.8x 1-year
forward P/ABV on persistent negative newsflow from the power sector. Current
valuations of 1.0x / 1.2x respectively seem to have factored-in the recurring bad
news. Incrementally, an overhang of tardy reform will keep trading multiples below
long-term averages. However, given their profitability profiles, we estimate 12-
month fair value multiples of ~1.3x FY13E ABV (a discount to 5-year average
P/ABV of ~1.6x) for both. Initiate coverage on PFC (BUY) and REC (ADD).

Power Finance Corporation: Buy::Business Line

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Fresh investments with a three-year horizon can be considered in the stock of Power Finance Corporation (PFC), India's largest infrastructure financing company. The Government's recent assurance that coal allotment to power projects would be increased, which reduces PFC's credit risk and the implementation of Shunglu Committee recommendations (distribution sector reforms), which reduce the counter-party risk for its power generation clients, are key positives.

Besides, investment demand in the power sector may continue to remain robust, driven by the Rs 11 lakh crore of investments expected during the 12{+t}{+h} Plan (2012-2017). Near-term visibility for PFC comes from undisbursed loans. Loans sanctioned but yet to be disbursed amount to 1.65 times of PFC's current loan book.

Secured nature of the loan book with low non-performing assets (NPA), access to low-cost borrowings such as tax-free bonds and negligible operating costs are other positives.

At the current price of Rs 192, the stock trades at 1.2 times its estimated FY13 book (adjusted for NPAs). The price-to-earnings multiple works out to 7.1 times its expected FY13 earnings. On the price-to-book value basis, the valuation is at a discount to Rural Electrification Corporation and IDFC. High visibility in terms of loan book growth with improved operational prospects of its clients and expectation of expansion in interest spreads make a good case for investing.

STRONG DEMAND FOR LOANS

PFC has been losing market share to banks due to aggressive lending by banks.

During the period FY 2007 to FY2011, the banks' loans to power sector grew at an 38 per cent as against 22 per cent growth clocked by PFC. However, the market share has marginally improved during the fiscal as the banks are going slow on this segment due to stretched exposure limits and asset quality concerns

PFC has put in place stricter under-writing standards for loan disbursement to private players and State electricity boards (SEBs). For instance, PFC sanctions loans to private projects only after the project secures power purchase agreement and coal linkages.

The projects commissioned prior to April 2009 have already secured fuel supply agreements. Therefore, only exposure to projects during FY10 and FY11 were at risk. The Prime Minister's directive that Coal India sign fuel supply agreements for 80 per cent of the normative quantity required would, therefore, be a game changer for PFC. Coal India has been asked to sign fuel agreements for projects up to 2015 which immensely improves the prospects of generation sector. This coupled with on-time payments by electricity boards (post-reforms) will ensure that the asset quality remains at current levels. Generation projects account for 84 per cent of the loan book. Exposure to the troubled distribution sector is at 4 per cent as against 25 per cent in case of banks and higher proportion in the case of REC.

Interestingly, the proportion of restructured assets is rising in case of banks, while PFC didn't restructure any power sector loans.

INTEREST SPREADS TO EXPAND

Even if the loan growth moderates in near term due to stricter underwriting and lower offtake , the company's financials would be driven by expansion in spreads.

The company's access to low-cost funding sources such as tax-free bonds, tax-savings bond and external commercial borrowings will keep tab on its overall cost of borrowing, thereby aiding its spreads. It is noteworthy that the yield on advances for PFC is stickier than the cost of funds, as interest on most of the loans is reset every three years. Cost of funds (for instruments other than bonds) on the other hand moves in line with prevailing interest costs. Therefore, any decline in interest rates can be margin accretive for PFC. The current yields on assets are at 11.2 per cent as against minimum lending rate for project loan of 12.5 per cent.

With high proportion of assets — about Rs 33,000 crore — being re-priced during the next fiscal, the margins will further improve. The management has guided 2.5 per cent interest spread as against the spread of 2.22 per cent for the nine-months ended December 2011. Higher disbursements to private sector projects to which PFC lends at higher rate will also drive the spreads for PFC.

RISKS

Foreign exchange risk from unhedged position is a key concern for PFC. Post change in AS11 Accounting Standard, PFC has taken Rs 1,033 crore loss to its balance-sheet. It will be amortised over the life of the loan. Due to reversal in earlier provided notional forex loss, the profit growth for the quarter was 68 per cent. Adjusting for the amortised forex, the net profit growth would have been 17 per cent. The volatility in foreign exchange is a key risk for PFC as the ECB borrowing is set to rise.

Another risk for PFC would be recognition of NPAs in 90 days against 180 days past due, if NBFC regulations come through. This would increase the provisioning, put pressure on margins and increase the NPAs proportion. Standard asset provisioning however would not be a problem as PFC has been setting aside 5 per cent of its profits every year to create a buffer for bad loans.

Technical: IDFC, Power Finance corp, OnMobile, Blue Star, UFLEX, Punjab Sind bank, Corporation Bank ::Business Line

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Please share the long- and short-term prospects of IDFC and Power Finance Corporation.

Jose K. Mathai

IDFC (Rs 140.6):IDFC threatened to go in to a tailspin when it declined below Rs 100 towards the end of last year. But the decline was stemmed at Rs 90 and the stock is powering ahead again. The recent trough can act as the stop for investors and they can also buy on declines with stop at Rs 85.

The medium-term resistance will be at Rs 170. If it gets past this level, it can move on to the long-term ceiling at Rs 220. The stock has already formed a double-top at this level and can struggle to move above it just yet. If it manages to do so, then next target will be Rs 264.

Long-term support below Rs 90 is Rs 44.

PFC (Rs 191.5): The scary plunge in PFC from the peak at Rs 383 halted above the long-term trough formed in October 2008. Investors can draw some comfort at this higher bottom recorded at the recent trough at Rs 131. The stock is also in a strong short-term uptrend from this trough.

PFC: State sector drives growth :: Kotak Securities

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PFC (POWF)
Banks/Financial Institutions
State sector drives growth. PFC accelerated its loan growth to 28% (up from 25% in
2QFY12) due to higher lending to state power entities largely for pre-approved
generation projects. Core earnings were almost flat qoq, up 13% yoy (5% above
estimates) on subdued spreads and stable operating expenses. Other highlights: (1) A
gas-based power plant in AP (exposure of Rs3.9 bn) slipped into NPL and (2) PFC
booked forex gain of Rs4.2 bn following the change in accounting policy. We revise
estimates by 1-4%, retain ADD with price target of Rs225 (from Rs215).

Power Finance Corporation: Q3FY12 –Asset quality concerns emerge • GEPL

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Q3FY12 –Asset quality concerns emerge
• PFC reported PAT growth of 68.2% Y-o-Y in Q3FY12 on back of write back of provisions done for
forex losses, adjusted for this income PAT would have shown growth of just 5.1% Y-o-Y basis in
Q3FY12.
• Disbursements have grown 35.8% Y-o-Y and sanctions decreased by 13.2% Y-o-Y in Q3FY12.
• NIM stood at 3.9% in Q3FY12 vs 4.0% in Q2FY12 and 4.1% in Q3FY11. There was reversal of `190
mn interest income from an account that defaulted during the quarter. This impacted NIMs by
~7bps negatively.
• Cost to income ratio stood at 2.7% in Q3FY12 vs 3.0% in Q3FY11 mainly on account of stable
operating expenses during the quarter.
• Asset quality deteriorated sequentially as Gross NPA stood at 0.5% in Q3FY12 vs 0.02% in
Q2FY12. This led to provisions of `390 mn in Q3FY12 vs nil in Q2FY12.
• CAR stood at 17.92% in Q3FY12.
Result Highlights
Business growth remains strong
Disbursements have grown by 35.8% in Q3FY12 but focus has been towards private players.
Disbursement to generation companies has fallen sharply to 45% of total disbursement in Q3FY12 vs
70% in Q3FY11. The company is putting in stringent norms for disbursement like fuel supply
agreement should be with the company. This is expected to keep an check on fresh delinquencies.
PAT growth supported by reversal of provision in light of AS11
PAT has grown mainly on account of reversal of provision for forex loss. CI ratio improved which
also added to profits. Some pressure came from provision on NPAs as there was rise in Gross NPA
during the quarter.
GNPA rise due to default from Konaseema
GNPA has moved sharply to 0.5% in Q3FY12 vs 0.02% in Q2FY12 as there was default by a borrower
Konaseema to whom the company’s exposure stands at `3950 mn. One more project Shree
Maheshwar project is the one where some stress is building up. This might move into NPA in
Q4FY12.
Valuation & Viewpoint
PFC has performed well on all parameters but concerns on asset quality have emerged. Asset
quality remains the key concern and improvement in it can lead to higher valuation for the stock as
steps are being taken by government to improve financial conditions of SEBs. At the CMP, the stock
is trading at 1.26x and 1.13x Book value of FY12E and FY13E respectively.

Power Finance Corporation Target Price (INR) 224 Forex reversal drives net profit growth, maintain Buy:: Avendus

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Net interest income was in line with estimates at INR10.9bn, driven by
28% y‐o‐y growth in the loan book. NIMs declined 12‐bp sequentially,
driven by interest income reversal of INR190mn on account of stressed
assets during the Dec11 quarter. Stable operating costs along with a
reversal in foreign exchange provision drove 68% y‐o‐y growth in net
profit, ahead of estimates. GNPLs increased to INR6bn on account of
slippage in one project. Management maintains the stress is limited to
only two projects. We maintain our estimates and forecast a CAGR of
22% in loans over FY12‐FY14. We forecast NIM to average at 3.9% over
FY12‐FY14. We lower our TP to INR224, as we roll it over to Dec12.
Maintain Buy. A higher‐than‐estimated rise in NPLs and sharp
slowdown in loan growth are risk factors.
Growth in loan book continues, disbursements and sanctions pick up
Balance sheet loans grew 28% y‐o‐y, driven by generation loans and sharp pick
up in short‐term loans. The 21% q‐o‐q growth in sanctions was encouraging,
after modest growth during 1HFY12. Disbursements grew 40% y‐o‐y during the
quarter, driven by the generation segment and APDRP‐related disbursements.
We maintain our forecast of a CAGR of 22% in loans, driven by a CAGR of 13%
in disbursements between FY12 and FY14.
Spreads stable; NIMs decline 12‐bp due to interest reversal
Spreads were stable sequentially; however, NIMs declined by 12‐bp q‐o‐q due
to interest reversal of INR190mn on account of a stressed asset. Adjusted for
interest reversals, NIMs would have increased sequentially. The pressure on
spreads is likely to ease in FY13f with improvement in system liquidity, equity
issuance and higher re‐pricing of assets (cINR330bn) than liabilities (cINR54bn).
We forecast stable NIMs, at a three‐year mean of 3.9% over FY12‐FY14.
Higher net profit driven by reversal of foreign exchange provisions
POWF reversed INR4.1bn of foreign exchange provisions during the quarter out
of the INR6bn recognized during 1HFY12, post adjusting the INR1.9bn booked
during the Dec11 quarter. Operating costs remained stable at INR2.9bn. Thus,
net profit growth of 68% y‐o‐y and 164% q‐o‐q was higher than estimates. We
maintain our estimates and forecast a CAGR of 20% in earnings for POWF
between FY12 and FY14.
Rise in GNPLs; management maintains stress is limited to two projects
GNPLs increased to INR6.3bn during the quarter from INR130mn outstanding at
end Sep11 due to slippage in a large project in Andhra Pradesh. The project is
facing issues on account of unavailability of coal. Management maintains the
stress is limited to just this project and another wind‐based project.
Lower Dec12 TP to INR224; valuations inexpensive
Our target is based on the DCF, P/E and P/B methods. Our DCF‐based fair value
stands at INR242/share. We rollover the target price to Dec12 and lower it to
INR224. Valuations at 1.2x one‐year forward P/B remain inexpensive. Maintain
Buy. Higher‐than‐estimated NPLs and a sharp slowdown in loan growth are risk
factors.

PFC Tax Free Bonds - Issue closes 16th Jan'12

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Rated CRISIL "AAA", ICRA "AAA"	Earn up to 8.3% p.a.
Issue Highlights :   ü Tax Free Bonds in the nature of secured, redeemable, non convertible debentures ü Rated “AAA” by CRISIL & ICRA respectively ü Interest Income on the Bonds is tax-free in nature ü Option of Issuing either in Demat form or physical form ü Who can Apply- Resident Individuals, HUFs, QIBs, Corporates, NRIs (both NRE & NRO) ü To be listed on BSE	About the Company Incorporated by Government of India as a financial institution in 1986 Aims to finance, facilitate & promote power sector development in India Net Worth- Rs. 15411.80 crores as on March 31st, 2011 Share Capital- Rs 1147.76 crores as on March 31st, 2011
. Details of the issue :. Particulars Series 1 Series 2 Tenure 10 years 15 years Issue Opens 30th December 2011 Issue Closes 16th January 2012 Issue Size Issue aggregating to Rs 4033.13 crores Rate of Interest 8.20% p.a. 8.30% p.a. Interest payment Annual Rating CRISIL "AAA", ICRA "AAA" Face Value Rs. 1000 Who can apply  Resident Individuals/HUF/QIBs/Corporates/NRIs(both NRE & NRO) Redemption 10 years from the deemed date of allotment 15 years from the deemed date of allotment Listing BSE Minimum Subscription Rs. 10,000 and in multiples of Rs. 5000 thereafter Registrars Karvy Computer Pvt. Ltd. Maturity Amount Repayment of the Face Value plus any interest that may have accrued at the Redemption
Basis of Allotment: Category Portion Allotment Basis Size (%) QIBs and Corporates (Category I) Institutional First Come, First Serve basis 50% of overall issue size Resident Individuals, HUFs, NRIs (Investment > 5 lakhs) (Category II) HNIs First Come, First Serve basis 25% of overall issue size Resident Individuals, HUFs, NRIs (Investment < 5 lakhs) (Category III) Retail First Come, First Serve basis 25% of overall issue size