Logistics : Q4FY12 Result Preview: ICICI Securities, PDF Link

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http://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_ConsolidatedResultPreview_Q4FY12E.pdf


Logistics
ƒ Muted growth in volumes at major ports
Overall volumes at 12 major ports during the first 11 months of FY12
registered a decline of -0.7% YoY to 510.8 million tonnes (MMT) while
container volumes have increased by 3.3% YoY to 7.09 million TEUs.
Volumes at major ports during the first two months of Q4FY12 exhibited
a decline of 5.6% YoY and stood at 92.6 million tonnes (MMT) while
container volumes for the same period declined 1.6% YoY and stood at
1.25 million TEUs.
ƒ EBITDA margin to increase marginally
We expect EBITDA for the I-direct coverage universe to increase 16.7%
YoY to | 566.5 crore mainly on account of higher realisations. EBITDA
margins are expected to increase by 70 bps YoY at 20.3%. We expect
PAT for the I-direct coverage universe to increase 10.6% YoY to | 354.8
crore.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Allcargo Global
Logistics
We expect 32.6% YoY growth in revenues on the back of higher realisations. EBITDA
margins are expected to increase by 98 bps YoY to 10.9% due to an improved
performance in ECU Line operations
Container
Corporation
We expect volume growth of 9.4% YoY in the Exim segment and de-growth of 4% YoY
in the domestic segment. Revenues are expected to increase 4.5% YoY. EBITDA
margins are expected to increase by 370 bps YoY to ~27.1%
Gateway
Distriparks
We expect 15.7% YoY revenue growth primarily on the back of better volumes in the
rail segment. Volumes are expected to decline by 8.6% YoY in the CFS segment and
increase by 15.4% YoY in the rail segment. Realisations are expected to improve 21%
YoY in CFS and by 4.5% YoY in the rail segment
Transport
Corporation
We expect revenues to remain flat YoY with 8.3% YoY growth in the XPS segment and
flattish to declining revenues in the remaining segments. Higher operating costs are
expected to result in a 72 bps decline in EBITDA margin YoY to 7.5%
Sanghvi Movers On the back of a firm demand scenario from key user industry segments, we expect
capacity utilisation levels during Q4FY12E to remain stable at ~85%. EBITDA margins
are also expected to remain stable at 80% in Q4FY12E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research