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Outlook for Week AheadFeb 2, 2015 Investors will keep a close watch on the central bank's monetary policy review next week. Trend in global markets, Q3 results of India Inc., investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, and crude oil price movement will also dictate trend on the bourses in the near term. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 7.75% after a monetary policy review next week. HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2015 is due on 2 February 2015. PSU OMCs, auto and airline stocks will be in focus as state run oil marketing companies review fuel prices on the last day and during the middle of the month based on the average imported oil price in the preceding fortnight. Auto companies will also be in focus as they announce their monthly sales numbers. Quarterly results of companies scheduled next week include Divi's Laboratories, Grasim Industries, UPL, ACC, Britannia Industries, Crompton Greaves, Hero MotoCorp, Lupin, Marico, NHPC, Punjab National Bank, Bharti Airtel, Tata Power, Wockhardt, Godrej Consumer Products, Tata Motors, NMDC and Tata Steel. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 8,527 are cleared. Downside supports to watch for any weakness are at 8,486.
The Week Gone By January 31, 2015 The market declined last week as market participants booked profits after key benchmark indices hit record high levels. Trading for the week started on a strong note, but the trend reversed on the last trading session of the week when large caps declined sharply. S&P BSE Sensex fell 96 points or 0.3% to 29,183. 50-unit CNX Nifty fell 27 points or 0.3% to 8,809. S&P BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices outperformed the benchmark by moving up 0.40% to 10,739 and 0.32% to 11,329 respectively. Key Highlights during the week: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Tuesday said that fiscal deficit targets for current year are likely to be met and manufacturing sector is showing turnaround signs. The government is likely to sell a 5% stake in state-run Power Finance Corporation Ltd next week, as the government scrambles to meet part of a near $10 billion share sale target before March 31. Reserve Bank is expected to come out with more monetary easing in the coming months if inflation remains in the comfortable zone. Government’s fiscal deficit has exceeded the budget estimate for full financial year in first 9 months (April-December) of the current fiscal. Fiscal deficit is difference between income and expenditure of the Government. Latest data by the Controller General of Accounts shows that deficit during April-December period was over Rs 5.32 lakh crore as against budget estimate of Rs 5.31 lakh crore. This is 100.2 per cent of the estimate as against 95.2 per cent during corresponding period of the previous fiscal. The Government has repeatedly said that it will be able to contain the deficit to budget target of 4.1 per cent of GDP. The Indian economy recorded 6.9 per cent growth in 2013-14, almost 50 per cent higher than the 4.7 per cent estimated earlier. The growth estimate was revised on account of the CSO’s move to adopt 2011-12 as the base year for computation of national incomes. Foreign direct investment inflows to India increased by about 26 per cent to $35 billion in 2014, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and financial risks, according to a United Nations report on global investments. Global FDI inflows, however, declined by 8 per cent to $1.26 trillion due to fragility of the global economy, policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks. US Markets Wall Street stocks Friday finished a volatile week sharply lower following a disappointing US economic growth report and worrisome data on euro zone inflation. Investors were worried at the end of a rough month for the market about weak U.S. growth data and whether instability in Europe could hurt corporate earnings in the United States. For the week, the Dow and S&P were each down 2.8% and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. For January, the Dow was down 3.6% and the Nasdaq was off 2.1%.
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