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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
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India Equity Strategy : Stress testing macro economic headwinds [Abhay
Laijawala]
This is the most commonly asked question to us following the S&P downgrade of
US debt and growth concerns in the Eurozone. With macroeconomic concerns
dominating investor mindshare we have attempted to provide a framework for
investors by running stress tests for BSE Sensex companies and determining
downside risk to both – earnings and the index – from a mild as well as an
extreme stress case scenario. Our economists currently forecast Indian GDP
growth around 8%.
India Equity Strategy: Crop acreage improves on normal rains [Abhishek
Saraf]
The growth in area sown under major Kharif crops (autumn harvest) has improved
sharply to 1.3%yoy (93.9m hectares [MH] vs. 92.7MH, for the period 1 June to 19
August) vs. negative 13%yoy growth till mid-July. This has been aided by a
marked turnaround in the monsoon rainfall during the past two weeks (+14% and
+26% above long-term average). Most of the key crops – barring pulses – have
witnessed yoy growth in acreage, with cotton posting the highest growth of 9.4%
yoy (11.7MH vs. 10.7MH), followed by rice (+8.4%yoy, 32.2MH vs. 29.7MH) and
sugarcane (+4.8%, 5.2MH vs. 4.9MH). Pulses have witnessed a sharp yoy
slowdown of -11% (9.9MH vs. 11.2MH). ).
US Daily Economic Notes : What is the modified yield curve telling us?
[Joseph LaVorgna]
Over the past few weeks, we have been discussing various economic series that
have been useful in the past for determining whether we are in or about to enter a
recession. Jobless claims are one of those indicators, and data will be released
this morning for the week after the August employment survey period.
Historically, claims have foreshadowed a downturn when they have jumped 50k to
75k on a sustained basis, meaning a month or two. Recently, claims have been
trending downward—the 4-week moving average fell 4k to 403k last week, the
seventh week in row in which this series declined. We think the current level of
claims is consistent with August nonfarm payrolls of +75k and private payrolls of
+100k. The latter would be higher if not for the Verizon strike which impacted 45k
workers.
The Investigator : Risk-Love Deep Panic Alert, tactical Buy [Ajay Kapur]
A lot has happened in the past three trading weeks. For nimble clients, we had
suggested on 8 August to ‚simply respect our checklist model, not to listen to our
interpretation, cut exposure‛. Today, our Risk-Love models have reached deep
panic levels, and the breadth of components reaching panic levels is stunningly
large. Our technical indicators are deeply oversold – at such exceptionally weak
levels, these technical indicators become contrary indicators, as long as we don’t
enter recession
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
India Equity Strategy : Stress testing macro economic headwinds [Abhay
Laijawala]
This is the most commonly asked question to us following the S&P downgrade of
US debt and growth concerns in the Eurozone. With macroeconomic concerns
dominating investor mindshare we have attempted to provide a framework for
investors by running stress tests for BSE Sensex companies and determining
downside risk to both – earnings and the index – from a mild as well as an
extreme stress case scenario. Our economists currently forecast Indian GDP
growth around 8%.
India Equity Strategy: Crop acreage improves on normal rains [Abhishek
Saraf]
The growth in area sown under major Kharif crops (autumn harvest) has improved
sharply to 1.3%yoy (93.9m hectares [MH] vs. 92.7MH, for the period 1 June to 19
August) vs. negative 13%yoy growth till mid-July. This has been aided by a
marked turnaround in the monsoon rainfall during the past two weeks (+14% and
+26% above long-term average). Most of the key crops – barring pulses – have
witnessed yoy growth in acreage, with cotton posting the highest growth of 9.4%
yoy (11.7MH vs. 10.7MH), followed by rice (+8.4%yoy, 32.2MH vs. 29.7MH) and
sugarcane (+4.8%, 5.2MH vs. 4.9MH). Pulses have witnessed a sharp yoy
slowdown of -11% (9.9MH vs. 11.2MH). ).
US Daily Economic Notes : What is the modified yield curve telling us?
[Joseph LaVorgna]
Over the past few weeks, we have been discussing various economic series that
have been useful in the past for determining whether we are in or about to enter a
recession. Jobless claims are one of those indicators, and data will be released
this morning for the week after the August employment survey period.
Historically, claims have foreshadowed a downturn when they have jumped 50k to
75k on a sustained basis, meaning a month or two. Recently, claims have been
trending downward—the 4-week moving average fell 4k to 403k last week, the
seventh week in row in which this series declined. We think the current level of
claims is consistent with August nonfarm payrolls of +75k and private payrolls of
+100k. The latter would be higher if not for the Verizon strike which impacted 45k
workers.
The Investigator : Risk-Love Deep Panic Alert, tactical Buy [Ajay Kapur]
A lot has happened in the past three trading weeks. For nimble clients, we had
suggested on 8 August to ‚simply respect our checklist model, not to listen to our
interpretation, cut exposure‛. Today, our Risk-Love models have reached deep
panic levels, and the breadth of components reaching panic levels is stunningly
large. Our technical indicators are deeply oversold – at such exceptionally weak
levels, these technical indicators become contrary indicators, as long as we don’t
enter recession
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