02 August 2011

Auto sales numbers - July 2011:: Angel Broking,

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Auto sales numbers - July 2011
Maruti Suzuki (Maruti)
Maruti reported lower-than-expected volume numbers, registering a 25.3% yoy decline to
75,300 units. The overall passenger car segment was sluggish in July 2011. The
company’s volumes were impacted by the discontinuation of dispatches of old Swift as the
company is planning to rollout the new version of Swift in August 2011. As a result, Swift
volumes were meager 348 units as against 11,828 units in July 2010. Further, shifting of
manufacturing of Swift Dzire from Manesar to Gurgaon also resulted in loss of 5,471 units
of Dzire. Maruti’s domestic volumes in July 2011 declined by 26.2% yoy, whereas exports
volume fell by 18.1% yoy. As per the new SIAM classification, volumes in the mini, compact
and super compact segments declined by 15.6%, 56% and 64.4% yoy, respectively.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)
M&M reported robust volume growth of 33.6% yoy (down 3.4% mom) in total sales to
56,351 units, aided by better-than-expected 43.6% yoy (11.4% mom) growth in
automotive sales (39,633 units) and in-line 14.6% yoy growth (down 26.4% mom) in
tractor sales (16,718 units). Within the automotive segment, the four-wheeler pick-up
segment grew by an impressive 91% yoy (16.5% mom) as GIO and Maxximo continued to
drive performance, passenger UV volumes grew by 29.9% yoy (7.8% mom) and Logan
sales continued the strong momentum, registering growth of 116.8% yoy (7.9% mom).
Exports during the month posted strong 78.2% yoy (27.5% mom) growth. In the tractors
space, domestic sales reported a healthy 16% yoy (down 27.2% mom) increase in volumes
to 15,699 units (15,925), while exports volumes declined marginally by 3.7% yoy (down
13.5% mom).
Tata Motors (TML)
TML’s total volumes registered a 6% yoy decline, led by a 39% yoy drop in passenger
vehicles (PV) volumes. However, commercial vehicles witnessed better-than-expected 14%
yoy growth to 40,798 units, driven by a 22% yoy jump in the LCV segment, while the
M&HCV segment posted modest 4% yoy growth. In the PV segment, the company reported
a total offtake of 18,294 units, significantly lower by 39% yoy. The decline in volumes was
primarily because of a 64% yoy decline in Nano volumes to 3,260 units. Indica volumes
posted a 32% yoy decline, while Indigo range of vehicles reported a 30% yoy drop during
the month.
Hero Honda (HH)
HH reported in-line 14.8% yoy growth in sales volume to 491,036 units, led by momentum
across all the product segments. On a sequential basis, however, volumes declined by
4.1%. New product launches and refreshed product ranges continued to drive the
company’s volume performance.
TVS Motor (TVS)
TVS reported healthy 15.5% yoy (5.2% mom) growth to 192,000 units, led by 15.6% yoy
(5.5% mom) growth in two-wheelers. Motorcycle sales grew by 18.8% yoy (3.8% mom) to
72,500 units, while the scooter segment registered strong 23.9% yoy (12.9% mom) growth
to 50,000 units. Three-wheeler sales posted modest 12.6% yoy (down 8.4% mom) growth,
selling 3,500 units. Exports volume continued to see strong traction, registering 29.3% yoy
(4.3% mom) growth to 27,500 units.

JPMorgan::Idea Cellular - Q1'FY12 wrap: Strong margins and tariff increase confirmed

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Idea Cellular Limited
Neutral
IDEA.BO, IDEA IN
Q1'FY12 wrap: Strong margins and tariff increase confirmed


Key highlights from Q1FY12 results were the solid margin improvement and
management’s confirmation of a tariff increase in 6 circles or 60% of its base.
We  have  increased  our  earnings  estimates  to  account  for  the  Q1  beat  and
management commentary. However, we remain concerned about outstanding
litigations  and the  slow  progress  of  new  circles. We would  be looking for a
favorable resolution of regulatory issues or a better entry point to turn more
positive on Idea. Our Mar-12 PT is now Rs90 (up from Rs80 earlier).
 Tariff increases confirmed: Idea confirmed a 20% price hike in 6 circles
which we believe account for ~60% of Idea's sub and revenue base. This is
in line  with  our  expectations  of  Idea  following  suit  after  Bharti  and
Vodafone  raised  rates.  Revenue  share  loss  of  MOU  declines  would  lead
management to reconsider the rate hike.
 ARPM improvement a positive surprise: Even prior to the rate hike, Idea
has delivered a slight 0.4paisa/1% ARPM improvement to 41.0paisa. This is
ahead of our estimate of a 1% decline and as a result our  forward estimates
are increased. Our FY12/13 revenue estimates are now 2.2%/0.5% higher.
 Solid  margin  improvement:  Idea’s  consolidated  margin  improved  2.7pp
Q/Q to 26.6% helped by both  revenue  growth and lower SG&A expenses.
We  have  adjusted  our  estimates  as  a  result  and increased  our  FY12/FY13
margin  estimates  by  2.0/1.1pp. Our EPS  estimates  are  now  at  INR  3.2/5.9
vs. INR 2.8/4.7 earlier. We expect consensus to increase estimates too.
 Our  new  Mar-12  price  target  is  increased  to  Rs90  (from  Rs80earlier).
Our PT is based on a SOTP of Idea’s core business, Indus Towers and Rs13
downward  regulation-related  adjustment.  Idea  trades  at  an  FY13E  P/E  of
15.9x and  6.3x EV/EBITDA,  a  15%  premium  and  in line with  Bharti,
respectively. Key upside risks include monetization of tower assets, M&A,
and  better-than-expected  pricing  while  downside  risks  include  an
unfavorable regulatory outcome, new circles drag

Cement numbers – July 2011 :: Angel Broking,

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Cement numbers – July 2011
ACC’s dispatches for July 2011 stood at 2mn tonnes, up 28.2% yoy, on account of higher
capacity (on a yoy basis) operational at Wadi and Chanda. Ambuja Cements (Ambuja)
also posted healthy 13.9% dispatch growth during the month to 1.7mn tonnes. Growth in
cement dispatches of both the companies has come on a low base. ACC and Ambuja are
currently trading at US$111 and US$127 per tonne, respectively, on CY2012E capacity.
We continue to remain Neutral on ACC and Ambuja.

2 August- Economic and Political News 􀂄 ngel Broking,

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Economic and Political News
􀂄 Government makes e-payment mandatory for import duty of over `1lakh
􀂄 Land acquisition bill may come up in parliament's winter session
􀂄 Coffee exports up by 38% in April–July on strong global demand
􀂄 Road Ministry plans to invest `2.64 lakh crore on highways

Corporate News
􀂄 NHPC to invest `15K cr for developing two projects in Myanmar
􀂄 Jyoti Structures secures orders worth `438cr from MP Vidyut Vitran Companies Ltd.
􀂄 Suzlon board approves `5,000cr funding

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

2 August, 2011: Equity Buy/Sell (Technical View) IFCI research,

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Equity Buy/Sell (Technical View)

Ø  The following are good for accumulation :

o   Axis > 1375 ;
o   Chambal Fert. > 90/50 ;
o   M&M > 740 ;
o   Rajesh Exp. > 116 ;
o   Ranbaxy > 567 ;
o   TVS Motors > 54/50 ;
o   Zylog > 419.
  
Have strict stop losses

Raking in profits - Gateway Distriparks : Buy:: Business Line,

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The company's container freight stations and container rail businesses are expected to drive growth.
Better-than-expected first quarter performance, improving profitability of its container rail business and ongoing capacity expansion of its CFSs (container freight stations) strengthen the prospects for Gateway Distriparks, a leading logistics service provider. Investors with a long-term perspective can consider buying the stock.
At the current market price of Rs 136, the stock trades at about 12 times its likely FY-12 per share earnings. This seems reasonable, given the improving outlook and financials of the company's CFS and container rail businesses. In the June-2011 quarter, GDL reported a consolidated revenue growth of about 44 per cent to Rs 188 crore, driven by a robust all-round performance across its business segments. The CFS business remained the key driver, registering a revenue growth of 74 per cent (44 per cent of total revenues). Its rail freight business (through Gateway Rail Freight) reported 26 per cent growth in revenues, while the cold-chain logistics business (through Snowman Logistics) registered 32 per cent growth in topline. Increase in dwell time, higher tariff, and shift in focus towards exim volumes in the rail business helped the company more than double its operating profits. Operating profit margins, therefore, expanded by about 10.8 percentage points to 35.3 per cent. These put together helped GDL grow its profits by over 138 per cent to Rs 34 crore in the quarter.

GROWTH DRIVERS

GDL's CFS and container rail businesses are expected to drive the company's growth from hereon. In the CFS segment, the company operates two large stations at JNPT and one each at Chennai and Visakapatnam. Encouraged by the healthy growth seen in container volumes across major Indian ports, GDL is now looking to expand the capacities at its existing facilities as well as add new ones. It plans to double the capacity of its Chennai CFS (operating at near full capacity) and add a new CFS at Kochi.
The Kochi facility, expected to become fully operational by early 2012, is a joint venture (60:40) with Chakiat Agencies, which operates shipping lines (50,000 TEUs expected capacity). Located opposite the International Container Transhipment Terminal, the new CFS can be expected to attract significant volumes. The CFS could also benefit from captive volumes from its joint venture partner.

ATTRACTING VOLUMES

With 21 rakes and two operational ICDs (inland container depots), Gateway Rail Freight, GDL's wholly-owned subsidiary, presents a promising growth picture. For one, the subsidiary after reaching breakeven at the net profit level in the third quarter last year has managed to sustain the trend since. For the third quarter in a row, it reported incremental profits. Second, the company has now shifted its focus from the domestic to the high-margin exim segment (20:80 mix).
With a presence in JNPT, Mundra and Pipavav ports, GRFL is strongly positioned to service the exim route. The company now plans to set up a new terminal at Asauti, Faridabad (120,000 TEUs capacity, expected to become operational by end of 2011). This would help the company attract more international volumes, what with Mundra and Pipavav ports expected to see a healthy growth in traffic.
GDL's presence in cold-chain logistics, through its majority joint venture with Mitsubishi also presents a healthy growth picture. Though its contribution to the total revenue pie is less (below 10 per cent), the business holds the potential to become a significant contributor in a couple of years.
Here again, the company is expanding capacities. On the whole, it expects to spend a total of about Rs 100 crore this year in all its three business segments. Funding the expansion shouldn't pose any problem as the company ended FY11 with cash and equivalents of about Rs 100 crore. Besides, its CFS business, which generates healthy cash and cold chain business do not have any borrowings. To that extent, the company's balance sheet has room for leverage, if required

1QFY2012 Result Preview DLF :: Angel Broking,

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1QFY2012 Result Preview
DLF
DLF is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2012 results. The company’s top line is expected to
grow by 40.2% yoy to `2,796cr. On the operating front, we expect the company’s margin
to contract by 429bp yoy to around 45.8%. Net profit is expected to increase by 14.5% yoy
to `488cr. The stock is currently trading at 16x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our
Neutral view on the stock. However, we will revisit our estimates post the conference call.