India Telecom : 3QFY11 results; MNP data : Anand Rathi

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India Telecom
TeleScan – Vol 1/11
 Key topics: 3QFY11 results; MNP data
 3QFY11 results. Telcos that have reported 3Q results (Bharti,
Vodafone, Idea, TTML) have seen almost flat revenue per minute
qoq vs. our estimate of ~2% dip. But, traffic growth rates saw
significant disparity. Idea saw the highest traffic growth (10% qoq),
possibly driven by: i) strong subs growth (10% vs. 6.4-7.5% for
Bharti/Vodafone; ii) higher share of rural subs in total base (50%
vs. ~40% for Bharti/Vodafone), as rural traffic exhibits stronger
seasonal recovery in 3Q. Idea registered 8% qoq revenue growth.
Vodafone saw ~5.8% wireless revenue growth owing to 5.5%
growth in traffic. Bharti’s India wireless revenue rose 3.6% due to
subdued traffic growth vs. peers. Capex picked up in 3Q, post
delays in previous quarters due to security import issues.

Punj Lloyd – 3QFY2011 Result Update -Angel Broking

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Punj Lloyd – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains a Neutral on Punj Lloyd.

Punj Lloyd (Punj) witnessed another quarter of weak performance with

disappointment coming on all the fronts. In 3QFY2011, order backlog stood at

`27,780cr with order inflow of `4,429cr. We are downgrading our FY2011 and

FY2012 estimates to factor in the weak results. We maintain a Neutral view

on the stock owing to the concerns on the execution and margin front.

CAIRN INDIA MAT credit benefits push PAT above estimates: Edelweiss

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􀂄 MAT credit pushes PAT above estimates; revenues and EBITDA in line
Cairn India’s (CIL) Q3FY11 revenues, at INR 31.0 bn (+15.3% Q-o-Q), were
broadly in line with our expectation of INR 30.3 bn. Net hydrocarbon production
during the quarter was at 100.3 kboepd, up 6.3% Q-o-Q, on account of production
ramp-up of Mangala crude. CIL reported production cash costs at USD 11.1/boe
(inclusive of cess) and SG&A expenses of USD 1.7/boe. Exploration cost, at USD
0.5/boe, was lower than expectations (USD 1.2/boe) due to slowdown in
exploration owing to delays in approvals. The company reported EBITDAX of INR
25.6 bn (USD 61.9/ boe), up 17.9% Q-o-Q, in line with our estimates (USD
61.1/boe). DD&A costs, in Q3FY11, were flat Q-o-Q at USD 6.9/bbl. CIL booked
MAT credit entitlement of INR 3.4 bn in Q3FY11. Consequently, PAT came in higher
than our estimate at INR 20.1 bn (estimate at INR 17.7 bn); PBT, at INR 22.1 bn,
was in line with our estimates of INR 21.8 bn.

Motherson Sumi Systems -robust performance, outlook upbeat; Buy: Anand Rathi

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Motherson Sumi Systems
Continued robust performance, outlook upbeat; Buy
Motherson Sumi Systems (MSSL) registered a good 3QFY11,
driven by robust standalone performance and sustained traction
at Samvardhana Motherson Reflectec (SMR). We re-iterate Buy
on the stock and raise target price to `221 from `192 earlier.

Buy BGR ENERGY SYSTEMS Robust quarter; order inflow concern persists: Edelweiss

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􀂄 Result ahead of estimates; sales catapult 98%
BGR Energy Systems’ (BGR) Q3FY11 results were ahead of our estimates. Sales
catapulted 98% Y-o-Y to INR 12.6 bn on back of strong growth in EPC and BOP
projects. EBITDA, at INR 1.5 bn, grew 110% Y-o-Y even as raw material costs
soared 204bps Y-o-Y to 80.4% of sales. Dip in employee cost (down 171bps Y-o-Y
to 3.3% of sales) and other expenses (down 99bps Y-o-Y to 4.6% of sales) helped
expand EBTIDA margin 65bps Y-o-Y to 11.7%. The margin expansion can be
attributed to higher sales mix of BOP in total sales. Reduced net interest cost and
lower tax rate helped the company record a robust PAT growth of 109% to INR
876 mn. It is important to note that the percentage growth looks magnified since
BGR’s revenues are growing on a smaller base.

High on gold: Business Line

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India's appetite for gold is making heads turn. Sample the numbers below and you will know why:

For the first nine months of 2010, global jewellery demand was 1468.2 tonnes.

A little over third of this was consumed by India; two years back, the country accounted for 23 per cent of the world's jewellery consumption.

India's jewellery consumption has risen to 513.5 tonnes in the nine months to September of last year (restated reports of World Gold Council), which is a 73 per cent increase over the same period the previous year.

The total holding of all the domestically listed Gold-ETFs stood at 15 tonnes by end-2010, reports the WGC. Benchmark Mutual Fund's Gold ETF holdings more than doubled to 7.49 tonnes last year.

WGC reports that India's gold demand has been rising at the rate of 13 per cent annually over the last 10 years.

Anand Rathi:Pratibha Industries -Strong orderbook, margin improvement

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Pratibha Industries
Strong orderbook, margin improvement
Pratibha’s revenue, EBITDA & profit grew 23%, 27% & 29% yoy
respectively. Although EBITDA was in line, net profit was below
our estimates on account of higher interest and financial charges.
Pratibha has a strong orderbook and better-than-industry OPM and
RoE. Our FY11/FY12 estimates and target price are under review.