01 March 2015

Bank Nifty has risen sharply in the last two sessions :: HDFC Sec

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Sector Expected to Outperform (Sector with Positive Bias) – BSE Bankex Observation: Bank Nifty has risen sharply in the last two sessions. In the process, the index has taken out the previous swing highs of 19,533 touched on 16th Feb 2015 to end the week at a three-week high. The rise in the last two sessions was accompanied with above average volumes, which augurs well for the uptrend to continue. The index had earlier made a double bottom around the 18,200 levels in early Feb 2015. Technical indicators are giving encouraging signals as the index trades above the 13-day SMA and the 14-day RSI too is in rising mode and at 59.15 is not overbought. The 14-day RSI also trades above its 9-day EMA. The Relative Strength Comparative indicator too is beginning to rise after remaining flat in the last few weeks. The major private sector banks like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Yes Bank and Axis Bank have reversed their recent weakness and entered into a new short term uptrend


Sector Expected to Underperform (Sector with Negative Bias) – BSE FMCG Observation: The CNX FMCG index witnessed a sharp fall today on the back of the Union Budget. In the process, the index broke the 21,816 supports and erased the gains seen in the last two weeks. Technical indicators are giving negative signals as the index trades below the 13-day SMA and the 14-day RSI too is in decline mode and at 44.15 is not oversold. The 14-day RSI also trades below its 9-day EMA. The Relative Strength Comparative indicator too is in decline mode, which implies that this index is beginning to underperform the Nifty. Key sector participant like ITC are showing signs of weakness and sliding lower. While the index may not substantially fall further, we expect it to underperform the Bank Nifty.

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