10 December 2014

Sell IDBI between Rs 69.05 & Rs 70. Sell BOB between Rs 1049.65 & Rs 1065 -Short tem sector momentum stock pick:: HDFC Securities

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Current Observation:
 The PSU Banking sector has got worst hit during today’s weak broader market and the IDBI Bank Ltd is one of the
participant of the sector pack that has declined sharply today.
 The strong overhead resistance of 200day EMA (pink curvy line) around Rs.75.00 levels has proved to be a strong
resistance for the stock price in the last couple of weeks. The stock price was not able to move above that hurdle and
that ultimately resulted in a sharp decline in the last couple of sessions.
 Currently the stock has placed on edge of moving below the immediate support of ascending trend line (brown line
around Rs.69.40) and further decline from here could lead to a continuation of weakness for near term.
 Daily momentum oscillator like 14 period RSI is moving within bearish high low range of around 60-25 levels. Having
failed to move above the key upper area of 60, it is presumed that RSI could slip down to 40 and next 30 levels,
from the current reading of 45 levels. This expected behavior of RSI is negative indication for the stock price.

Current Observation:
 The attached daily timeframe chart of this banking sector is indicating a top reversal pattern around the swing high
of Rs.1125 levels.
 After showing hesitation to move up in the last few sessions. The stock price declined sharply today and is now
placed on the edge of moving below the immediate support of around Rs.1050 levels (ascending brown trend line).
Further weakness below from here could have sharp negative impact for the stock price.
 We observe the confirmation of negative divergence pattern in daily RSI as well as in the recent rising swing highs of
the stock price. This is adding value to the negative outlook of the stock price.
 The daily RSI has slipped below the key upper area of 60 levels. As per the theory of bullish high low range of 75-40
levels, the daily RSI is expected to slip down to lower 40 levels, from its current reading of 55 levels. This expected
behavior of RSI could mean more weakness ahead for the stock price.
 Overall negative chart set up is suggesting a selling opportunity in Bank of Baroda for near term.

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