19 November 2014

NiveshDaily Commodity | November 18, 2014

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Copper is now trading in a very tight range from last few trading sessions and this trend remain continue in today’s
trading session too. Official data released earlier revealed that Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by an
annualized 1.6% in the third quarter following a 7.3% drop in the preceding quarter, which puts the country in a
recession. Economists were forecasting a 2.3% growth rate. Separately, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was
expected to postpone a planned sales tax increase due to come into effect next year after a sales tax hike in April of
this year acted as a drag on growth. The prime minister was also expected to call for snap elections which could
take place as soon as next month. News of Japan's recession offset mixed U.S. economic indicators. The Federal
Reserve reported earlier that industrial production contracted by 0.1% in October, disappointing expectations for a
gain of 0.3%. Industrial production for September was revised down to a gain of 0.8% from a previously reported
increase of 1.0%. The report showed that the capacity utilization rate, a measure of how fully firms are using their
resources, dipped to 78.9% in October from 79.2% in September, missing expectations for a 79.3% reading. In a
separate report, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its general business conditions index increased to
10.2 this month 6.2 in October. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 11.1 in November, though a reading
above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, which gave the dollar support. The new orders index rose eleven points
to 9.1, and the shipments index advanced eleven points to 11.8. The index for number of employees edged down
to 8.5 but remained positive, indicating that employment levels grew, which also bolstered the greenback. Indexes
for the six-month outlook were generally higher this month and conveyed a strong degree of optimism about
future business conditions. The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it is seen as an early
forecast of the Institute for Supply Management's widely-watched factory survey. Today, traders have close watch
on German Zew economic sentiment. Copper for November delivery settled at Rs 415.05 on the MCX division.

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